The 2021 NFL Draft: Prepare For the Most Memorable Draft In History
Ben Lyso
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One by one the dominoes are falling.
Regardless of their drive or passion to play, College Football has always been on the brink of destruction this year due to COVID considering the players’ amateur status and the liability held by the respective universities.
First came the Big 10 and the Pac 12, both unequivocally cancelling their respective seasons.
Then, the ACC and Big 12 announced they are both “on the fence” for playing this year, a status that will no doubt deteriorate in the coming weeks. While they have announced schedules, how many games, if any, will actually be played?
The SEC, meanwhile, is holding firm. They are echoing across the country that ‘WE WILL PLAY!’ which is no surprise given the absolute fervor and borderline-mania that their fans demonstrate.
So is that it? Will this years’ college football season consist of the SEC and whoever decides to field football teams this fall?
As it stands – that could very well be the reality (if there is any college football this year). And that will have a major impact on the NFL.
How will organizations evaluate talent?
What happens when an NFL Draft is conducted after a full year off for a majority of the players? How will NFL scouts and decision makers accurately evaluate players to determine who is the most talented and best fit for their team?
Sure, NFL scouts have their jobs for a reason, and they can evaluate talent without pure game footage. But, as anyone who watches football can testify to, doing well in team drills and scrimmages doesn’t necessarily translate to game day.
Not to mention a lot can happen in a year with regards to player development and skill, and one doesn’t have to look much further than last years’ first overall pick for an example.
Joe Burrow started his college football career at Ohio State, riding the bench his redshirt year and making only five appearances each of his next two years. In 2018 he transferred to LSU and had a respectable year, but set the college football world on fire in 2019 with his record-setting performance.
If the 2019 college football season had been cancelled, would Joe Burrow be a first-round draft pick? Would he even declare for the draft? Would his development be forever stunted?
Let’s talk numbers.
If there is even a season, and if the SEC is the only conference that plays, that will throw a huge question mark into player evaluation.
The SEC is clearly a powerhouse where most NFL talent derives from. Looking back at the 2020 NFL Draft, 38% of players drafted in the first three rounds played in an SEC school.
That, of course, leaves a whopping 62% of players drafted in the first three rounds that did not play in the SEC.
Looking ahead to the 2021 NFL Draft, what happens with those 62% of players?
Are they all drafted much, much later due to lack of game footage? Or do teams roll the dice and trust their scouting staff and their gut?
One can anticipate two major consequences given these circumstances: there will be players drafted much sooner than they should be, and there will be players drafted much later than they should be.
This affords the opportunity for incredible busts and incredible steals.
Going back to the Joe Burrow example, let’s say the 2019 NCAA season was cancelled and he decided to declare for the draft. Let’s also say, without his senior season performance, he gets picked in the sixth round.
Granted, we haven’t seen him play a single snap in the NFL, but in this scenario a team drafted a first overall pick talent with their sixth round pick.
“What about the proposed Spring Season?”
Yes, as it stands college football is proposing a season starting in the spring. An abbreviated collage of games to give fans some action without the risk of overlapping into the 2021 NFL campaign.
If that does come to fruition, that would be useful for college players intending to return to their respective universities next year or retire, but for players intending on entering the NFL Draft — especially first, second, or even third-round talent — expect to see massive holdouts.
Why would a player risk injury and potentially miss out on a seven or eight figure NFL contract for a few (essentially) meaningless spring games?
All we have to do is look at recent Bowl Game trends.
Since the mid-2010s, there has been a wave of NFL talent sitting out the final game of their career. The likes of: Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Fournette, Deebo Samuel, Greedy Williams, Noah Fant, N’Keal Harry, and a host of other second and third round talent have chosen to sit out their teams’ bowl games to avoid the risk of injury and prepare for the NFL Draft.
All of these players have refused to risk injury in a game in December or January in preparation for the NFL Draft, and now people expect high-round NFL talent to risk injury and play games in the spring? Really?
With the lack of player evaluation, with the lack of player development, with the lack of talent even participating in a college season this year, the 2021 NFL Draft might be the most memorable in history.
And I don’t mean in a ‘your child’s first steps’, ‘Minneapolis Miracle’, ‘Wilson throwing an interception on the goal line in the Super Bowl’ type of way; more of a ‘Looking back, I can’t believe the Lions really drafted (insert Christian Ponder equivalent) first overall in the 2021 NFL Draft’ type of way.
In other words, prepare for complete chaos.