Sliders and Sleepers

Every year, players drop for various reasons: Randy Moss in 1998, Da’Quan Bowers in 2011, Aaron Rodgers in 2005, Brady Quinn in 2007, or even Andrew Billings last year who dropped from a consensus first rounder to the fourth round. And inversely, every year there are players drafted much higher than we ever expected: Darrius Heyward-Bey in 2009, Troy Williamson in 2005, or Tim Tebow in 2010. So what players are going to be drafted too high or too low? Well, I have my top sleepers in this draft along with the top players that I think will be reached for and should slide much lower than they will.

To help out with where players will go, I’ve consulted Arif Hasan’s Forecast Board, which has been the most accurate individual board for predicting roughly what pick players will fall to in the NFL Draft.

 

MY TOP SEVEN DRAFT SLEEPERS (OR PLAYERS I REALLY LIKE MORE THAN MOST)

1. Forrest Lamp, OG, Western Kentucky

Projected Round: Round 1
Overall Rank: #6 (#1 OG)
Forecast Board: #26 Overall (#1 OG)
NFL Comparison: Zach Martin

Synopsis: I know… how can a first round pick be a sleeper? Well, Lamp falls in the 15-25 range for most people when they are grading players out for a big board. Where do I have Lamp? Number six overall. Lamp is a former tackle at Western Kentucky who, due to shorter-than-desired arms and a smaller frame at 6’4″/300, will move into the guard position in the NFL. He has the ability to be an absolute game-changing, Pro Bowl guard similar to Zach Martin in Dallas. Honestly, besides the lack of a huge frame and maybe needing a wider base while blocking, I don’t see really anything wrong with him at the next level. Due to the guard position not being as highly valued as offensive tackles, he could fall into the 20-30 range in the draft. If that’s the case, I hope the Vikings move up and pick him because he’s the best guard prospect I’ve seen in 5+ years. That said, I have a feeling he won’t be there past pick number 15.

 

2. Desmond King, FS, Iowa

Projected Round: Rounds 2-3
Overall Rank: #28 (#3 S)
Forecast Board: #68 (#9 S)
NFL Comparison: Antoine Winfield

Synopsis: One of the most aggressive-tackling corners I have seen in the draft in some time, King will likely shift to the free safety position due to his perceived lack of speed (despite running a 4.52 40-yard dash). He plays with a lot of quickness (and tested top 5 in all defensive backs in the 3 cone/shuttles). However, the best quality of his play is his nearly transcendent ball skills and ability to read the quarterback; the skill is absolutely uncanny. He had 14 interceptions in college and was awarded the Jim Thorpe award for best defensive back in all of college football in 2015. He struggles in man coverage and only stands 5’11” with roughly 30 inch arms, so he’s undersized, but makes up for it with his aggressiveness in the run game. He also played as the kick and punt returner at Iowa, so has special teams ability as well.

 

3. Chris Godwin, Outside WR, Penn State

Projected Round: Round 2
Overall Rank: #29 (#4 WR)
Forecast Board: #60 (#7 WR)
NFL Comparison: Jeremy Maclin

Synopsis: A true big-bodied receiver who also remains a deep threat. While he ran a 4.42 at the combine, his play speed does seem slower than that, so that remains a question. He has strong hands and a good ability to reach up and grab the ball in jump ball situations. His route running is solid, but lacks ability in the run game (frequently showing on tape pushing his man into the running back or just not being able to keep a block on his man). He’s shown to be very consistent on tape (even during inconsistent statistical showings) and seems to play well in bigger games (i.e. 187 yards/2 TDs against Adoree Jackson and USC in the Rose Bowl).

 

4. Brad Kaaya, QB, Miami (FL)

Projected Round: Rounds 3-4
Overall Rank: #53 (#4 QB)
Forecast Board: #117 (#7 QB)
NFL Comparison: Matt Ryan

Synopsis: A solid pro-style quarterback with exceptional technical skills at the position. He does well when he’s in a rhythm and moves throughout his progressions quickly and effectively. He makes smart decisions and avoids trying to take ill-advised chances on tight throws if possible. He has a quick release if need be, but can also get in trouble in the pocket taking sacks with his limited mobility. His accuracy falters at times, especially in the mid “ten to twenty” yard range. I think he would be the second best “first year starter” in the draft for a team, but also think he could be one of the best quarterbacks, if not the best quarterback, from this draft three to five years down the road.

 

5. Elijah Lee, LB, Kansas State

Projected Round: Round 6-7
Overall Rank: #123 (#9 LB)
Forecast Board: #203 (#14 LB)

Synopsis: A productive linebacker with good speed, size, and athleticism who can square up and play downhill as well as sideline-to-sideline. He has great range and the ability to play man-to-man or zone defense. A true three-down linebacker, Lee has decent ball skills but at times misreads plays or doesn’t have the instincts to read the plays quickly. Tackling technique needs work and needs to get lower both with tackling as well as when blitzing.

 

6. Jon Toth, OC, Kentucky

Projected Round: Rounds 6-7
Overall Rank: #144 (#5 OC)
Forecast Board: #191 (#4 OC)

Synopsis: Toth is a four year starter with good size. He struggles with athleticism and footwork at times, but does a great job to playing up his strengths while blocking. He has good upper body control, technique, and hand placement, but his hip stiffness causes issues with speedier linemen who can change direction well. He could be a starting center or guard in the NFL in a few years.

 

7. Corn Elder, Slot CB, Miami (FL)

Projected Round: Round 5
Overall Rank: #112 (#16 CB)
Forecast Board: #148 (#20 CB)
NFL Comparison: Captain Munnerlyn

Synopsis: Elder is an aggressive, physical corner with a knack for playing press coverage as well as being fluid in his hips. Has elite quickness for a corner, but lacks the size to be able to play outside. He shows great awareness with jump balls as well as patience in making a move toward the ball. He seems to be a good Zimmer back (minus the shorter height) as he is an aggressive tackler and physical corner who thrives in man and press coverage but is versatile enough to play any coverage scheme.

 

MY TOP SEVEN DRAFT SLIDERS (OR PLAYERS I REALLY LIKE LESS THAN MOST)

1. Josh Jones, SS, North Carolina State

Projected Round: Round 2
Overall Rank: #119 (#11 S)
Forecast Board: #51 Overall (#7 S)

Synopsis: Jones is an overly aggressive safety who loses control at times on the field, resulting in missed tackles and giving up big plays. He does a good job keeping his eyes on the quarterback, but despite that, still seems to have below-average instincts and abilities to make plays on the ball. He is fluid in his hips and his technique looks pretty good, but bites too easily on play action passes.

 

2. Fabien Moreau, CB, UCLA

Projected Round: Round 2
Overall Rank: #116 (#17 S)
Forecast Board: #64 (#9 CB)

Synopsis: Moreau is a poor-instinctual corner with bad ball skills. He’s shown exceptional athleticism and can match many receivers well, but he’s limited in his coverages and gets baited too easily in coverage. He does poorly against the deep ball and is known for committing an excess of penalties.

 

3. Samaje Perine, RB, Oklahoma

Projected Round: Rounds 3-4
Overall Rank: #117 (#11 RB)
Forecast Board: #80 (#6 RB)

Synopsis: Dependable one-trick back that relies solely on power to create plays. Lacks speed and quickness to blast through holes or make cuts in space. Not great in pass protection or pass catching, but shows the power needed in short distance plays.

 

4. Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson

Projected Round: Round 1
Overall Rank: #57 (#5 QB)
Forecast Board: #21 (#2 QB)
NFL Comparison: Jeff Garcia

Synopsis: Watson is an exceptional leader for his team who has an uncanny ability to stay calm in the biggest of situations. He has great mobility in the pocket, but too often scrambles out of the pocket and runs instead of trying to pass the ball when receivers are open. He struggles mightily with the deep ball and made a lot of bad decisions resulting in interceptions.

 

5. Juju Smith-Schuster, WR, USC

Projected Round: Round 6-7
Overall Rank: #78 (#11 WR)
Forecast Board: #45 (#5 WR)

Synopsis: All I’m going to say is that he plays like Laquon Treadwell-lite. And I thought Treadwell was a mid-second rounder at best, so I don’t understand the love for Smith-Schuster.

 

6. Obi Melifonwu, SS, Connecticut

Projected Round: Rounds 1-2
Overall Rank: #51 (#6 S)
Forecast Board: #46 (#5 S)
NFL Comparison: George Iloka

Synopsis: Okay, so our numbers aren’t all that far off, but Melifonwu has been rumored recently to have a shot to go top 20 in the draft, and so with that knowledge, I believe that would be a big mistake. Melifonwu is a prototypical safety with size and height but his tape showed a clear lack of playmaking abilities. He lacks instincts and struggles against play-action.

 

7. Cam Robinson, OT, Alabama

Projected Round: Round 1
Overall Rank: #41 (#3 OT)
Forecast Board: #23 (#3 OT)
NFL Comparison: Cordy Glenn

Synopsis: Robinson lacks proper offensive line instincts, fails to bend properly, and gets caught leaning leading to missed blocks and finding himself on his butt on the turf too often. His footwork is great most of the time, but struggles against faster pass rushers. He seems like he easily could be an Ereck Flowers-esque tackle.

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