A Running Back Resurgence?

It’s a classic Hollywood cliche: the old and washed up get replaced by the new and flashy. Year after year, that cliche plays out in Hollywood. And year after year, that cliche is the discussion throughout fantasy football. We watch as the stars on our favorite teams become more obsolete; positions become increasingly more important as others fade. That’s certainly become the case as the NFL has moved more and more into a passing league. Consider that last year, the average NFL team ran the ball just 42% of the time, down from nearly 45% just five years ago. And while that three percent drop doesn’t seem like that much, if you use an average of four yards per carry (a middle-of-the-pack NFL running back), that amounts to a 128 yard difference for a running back throughout the season. For top tier running backs, that number is even higher (Jordan Howard, Le’Veon Bell, Ezekiel Elliott, LeSean McCoy, Jay Ajayi, Isaiah Crowell, etc. all averaged near 5 yards per carry or higher last year). At that point, you’re talking somewhere in the 160-175 yard range. For context, think of it this way: despite the poor running and offensive line play last year, 175 extra yards would have made Jerick McKinnon the 24th highest rusher in the NFL last year, alongside players such as Matt Forte, Jonathan Stewart, Todd Gurley, and now-Vikings RB Latavius Murray.

So needless to say, because of the decreased usage rates, the common thinking between many fantasy owners has been that running backs have begun to slowly fade out in importance as wide receivers should be drafted higher, especially in a PPR format. There’s even strategies that revolve around avoiding the running back position until late. But is that thinking really correct? Well, that thinking boils down to a few key ideas: 1) the smaller age window of running backs and 2) the move to a committee approach.

History and analytics have proven that a running back’s days in the NFL start counting down rapidly as they approach the age of 30. Fantasy production begins to drop as they become less efficient, and by the time they hit age 32, they are very rarely fantasy relevant (unless of course you happen to be Frank Gore, one of only three RBs over the age of 32 to have run for 1,000+ yards and it hadn’t happened since 1984). To counter this small age window and a lack of premier running backs, the NFL has countered in strategy by using a two or sometimes three running back committee that they can use to make up for not one classic back and prevent some of the wear and tear on the older running backs. And we’ve seen an indication of that so far with the Vikings combo of The Rookie (Dalvin Cook), The Incumbent (Jerick McKinnon), and The Veteran (Latavius Murray). So where is the league headed? Will it continue to feature committees of running backs that are in the 26-29 year old range and will we ever see more of the traditional ‘bell cow back’ that we saw more often in the early 21st century?

It hasn’t looked real hopeful if you’ve been hoping to draft a young, high-usage running back in your fantasy draft. But what is the future of NFL running backs in fantasy? Are they really dying out and David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott are just a rare breed of back or is that moving back into the norm?

Go back three years ago. It was a pretty typical fantasy year for running backs with the exception of one player. Demarco Murray had just finished an astonishing 393 carry, 1,845 yard, 13 TD season and we were wondering if a player would ever have a season with that many touches again. Meanwhile, 22 different running backs averaged double digit weekly point averages throughout the season, and some new running backs were coming into the league. Four of the top ten running backs in rushing yards, carries, and fantasy points per game were 25 years old or younger. We were beginning to see some stars emerge at the running back position (Le’Veon Bell and Lesean McCoy for example).

Now fast forward to last year, a year that was described as filled with unpredictable running backs as there weren’t many young backs holding full-time starter roles. However, by the time the season ended, eight of the top eleven running backs with the most carries were under the age of 26 (and six of those were either finishing their rookie or sophomore seasons last year). When it came to yards and fantasy points per game, another seven of the top ten running backs were under the age of 26 with (yet again) six of those running backs having played three seasons or less. Last year, 29 different running backs averaged double digit points each week – higher than any other fantasy football season in the last twelve years.

So if the fantasy landscape is starting to be filled with young running backs that have a hold of the starting job, is that a good sign pointing to the future of running back fantasy production? Well, as long as the trend of the last few years hold true (and specifically last year), these stats start to point to the same thing: we are not seeing less of running backs, but in fact are getting more dependable, yet younger running backs averaging 12 or more carries each year than the running backs did just three years ago.

What does that mean for fantasy football today? While there is still disparity between the upper tiers and middle tiers of fantasy running backs, the classic bellcow running back is not going away, it’s merely reinventing itself. While running backs may have fewer rushing opportunities compared to the early 2000s, they’ve certainly made up that ground in greater passing game involvement as running backs are becoming greater dual threats with the ball. Running back David Johnson had 879 receiving yards last year, which was good for 40th in the NFL in yards and finished ahead of wide receivers like Randall Cobb, Alshon Jeffery, Brandon Marshall, and Steve Smith. And it wasn’t just Johnson leading the way in the NFL as four other running backs had at least 500 receiving yards and three of those four had 600 yards or more.

Where does all of that leave us? It seems that there can be only one conclusion: running backs aren’t “riding off into the sunset”. The running back from years past is reinventing, resurging, and here to stay.

Share: