What Would Randy Moss’ Rookie Numbers Look Like in 2020?

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Moss was mooning the Packers years before he actually mooned them

21-year-old Justin Jefferson barnstormed the NFL with top-notch receiver play for the Vikings in 2020. It was Jefferson’s maiden voyage in the business, and the LSU alumnus did his damndest to make Vikings faithful “forget” about Stefon Diggs. The Buffalo Bills landed Diggs from Minnesota in the spring of 2020 for [what turned out to be] Jefferson, Kenny Willekes, and three upcoming draft picks in the 2021 NFL Draft. 

Jefferson casually set the NFL rookie receiving-yard record with 1,400. He chipped in seven touchdowns and is a serious finalist of the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award. 

The Rookie of the Year honor is not unfamiliar to the Vikings. Percy Harvin (2009), Adrian Peterson (2007), Randy Moss (1998), and Sammy White (1976) were all bestowed the accolade throughout the team’s history. Strangely, a defensive player for the Vikings has never commanded the recognition – and Minnesota is a franchise predominantly renowned for defense. 

Although Harvin, Peterson, and White certainly deserved the award wholeheartedly, Moss’ 1998 campaign was different. His brand of sizzle was outlandishly innovative for the NFL. Moss inflicted his damage in an acrobatic, effortless fashion. Stylistically, there was never really anybody before him that could emulate his technique, and most have tried and failed after Moss’ 2012 retirement. To be sure, gobs of pass-catchers have tallied phenomenal seasons, but Moss’ species was standalone.

Therefore, when Jefferson danced his way into the industry with a New Orleans-based gambado, comparisons to Moss followed.

Eras are different. So, what Randy Moss’ statistics look like transplanted into 2020?

The Receiving Yards Scaled to 2020

Put a math-based thinking cap on. Due to rule changes and player safety emphasis, the NFL is markedly different in 2020 than it was in 1998. Of course, the Vikings with Randall Cunningham, Cris Carter, Robert Smith, Jake Reed, and the aforementioned Moss impaled the NFL with offensive pyrotechnics. But spliced into 2020 – the 1998 Vikings would bemore lethal.

Why? Because leaguewide passing-yard totals from 1998 to 2020 spiked by 23%. On average, an NFL team in 1998 threw for 3,315 yards. In 2020, the new-normal is 4,078 for passing yards by a quarterback starting all 16 games. 

Scaling Moss from 1998 to 2020 with this percentage places him at 1,615 receiving yards during his rookie campaign. That’s 215 more yards than Justin Jefferson. It is also more than this year’s receiving-yard leader, Stefon Diggs, who tallied 1,535 receiving yards. Ergo, it is fair to claim that Moss’ 1998 production would have topped the NFL in 2020. Also remember, however, that Antonio Freeman and Eric Moulds registered more receiving yards than Moss in 1998. Those men, too, would thrive in 2020’s NFL. 

And the TD Receptions

Now for Moss’ livelihood – touchdown receptions. If one is ever in the market for declaring Moss as the NFL’s best-ever wide receiver, touchdowns are the statistical parameter to emphasize. Other men tallied more catches and yards than Moss, but touchdowns were the zenith of his repertoire.

Moss set the NFL rookie record in 1998 for receiving touchdowns – 17 of them. For 1998, the average NFL team accounted for 21.9 receiving touchdowns during that season. Fast forward to 2020 and that figure climbs immensely to 27.2. By the numbers, NFL teams score more receiving touchdowns in 2020 in contrast to 1998 – to the tune of 24%.

Correspondingly, that accelerates Moss’ hypothetical 2020 number to 21 touchdowns rather than 17. The high for receiving touchdowns this season was 18, set by Davante Adams. Here again, rookie Randy Moss would lead the field if teleported to 2020.

The Verdict

Put simply, Moss’ numbers — if he owned a time machine or fountain of youth – would be even gaudier in 2020. But that is probably self-evident. 

As a 21-year-old, Moss would instantly lead the NFL in most meaningful receiving categories if he traveled throughout time by his lonesome. If stat-mates like Antonio Freeman or Eric Moulds made the trip with Moss, they’d excel, too. 

When Moss’ yards per reception total from 1998 (19.0) is left static and unaffected by the era transference, his statline is herculean – especially for a rookie. 

85 Receptions. 1,615 Receiving Yards. 21 Touchdowns.

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