Pack at Vikes Preview—Tale of Two Quarterbacks
Joe Oberle
|
So, it all comes down to this: the Green Bay Packers (and hopefully very few of their fans) invade U.S. Bank Stadium on Monday night with the playoffs on the line and potentially the NFC North Division. That’s why the league scheduled this game, and Vikings fans have been looking forward to it since the second game of the season when Kirk Cousins threw that ill-fated pass in Lambeau Field and cost the Purple a chance at a big win.
It wasn’t all on Cousins mind you, but that is what is remembered from that game. While it was difficult for Minnesota to swallow, it likely haunts nobody more than Cousins himself. Two weeks later the team laid a massive egg in Chicago and they have been battling uphill ever since trying to stay relevant and get in the conversation for the NFC North title.
And no one has battled harder than Kirk Cousins. Since about the quarter pole of the season, Cousins has elevated his game to become a top-5 quarterback in the league (ranked No. 4 with a 111.1 rating) and mentioned in MVP discussions. If that is because of the team losing to Green Bay and Cousins looking for redemption, then good on him. He gets how important this rivalry and this game is to the team and the legions of Purple faithful.
Cousins seemed to get that from the moment he joined the team. He should have had a win in Lambeau last season after going 35 of 48 for 425 yards and four touchdowns (one interception) for a 118.8 quarterback rating in his first game in Purple against the Pack. But rookie kicker Daniel Carlson (who was not up to the challenge in his second game as a pro) missed three kicks, including two that could have won it, so the Vikings, and Cousins, came away with a tie.
The next time out, Cousins beat the Packers at home going 29 of 38 for 392 yards, three TDs, zero picks and a 129.5 passer rating. Some redemption. But the stain remains from the game earlier this season when he went 14 of 32 for 230 yards, one TD pass and two picks (for a 52.9 rating). He led the team on a furious comeback from a 21-point first-quarter deficit, but his bad decision and even worse pass prevented him from sealing the deal and putting the Vikings in the divisional driver seat this weekend. Oh, what could have been.
So, conventional wisdom would suggest that “Edgy Kirk” had this one circled on his calendar for some time. He may be missing his star running back Dalvin Cook (likely designated questionable with a shoulder injury from last week), but it won’t worry him much as Mike Boone filled in admirably in his stead last week (and the hope is that Alexander Mattison returns). In addition, wideout Adam Thielen returned from his hamstring injury last week and caught all three targets and left the game without aggravating his hammy. That makes the passing game even more difficult to defend than it has been most of the season.
While Thielen has been out, the Vikings’ offensive brain trust has expanded the scope of the passing game to include the heretofore moribund tight end group, receivers such as Bisi Johnson and Laquon Treadwell and also remind us what a star Stefon Diggs is. With Thielen back, the concerns increase for the Packers defensive brain trust.
A balanced offense will suit the Vikings well against the Packers defense, though while improved this season, still doesn’t measure up with the rest of the league:
23rd in total yards allowed (371.3)
22nd in passing yards allowed (250.4)
24th in rushing yards allowed (120.9)
In the most important number, however, the Packers are a lot better: ranked 9h in points allowed with 20.2 per game.
On offense, where the Packers have made their hay in years past, the numbers don’t measure up well to those of the Aaron Rodgers era:
22nd in total yards (336.6)
17th in passing yards (230.1)
17th in rushing yards (106.3)
But once again, when you look at the biggest number on the board, the Packers are bit better, ranked 14th in points scored with 23.6 per game.
By scoring when they need to and bending rather than breaking on defense, the Packers have only three losses this season and continue to hold the division lead since opening weekend.
And that is what Rodgers does best. Lead his team down the field and score whether it is handing off to Aaron Jones at the goal line or throwing a Hail Mary from mid-field. But the Aaron-the-Invincible story line of years gone by appears to have some cracks in its hull. The word from some observers is that Rodgers’ play has been down this season compared to his illustrious career and that he is hanging onto the ball too long, or doesn’t’ trust his receiving corps or is still at odds with his new head coach’s offense.
Whatever the reason, Rodgers numbers are down—he is ranked 11th in passing yards, ninth in touchdowns and 10th in QB rating. Now, while those are numbers most offensive coordinators in the league would love to see from their signal callers, they are pedestrian for Rodgers. The offense has emphasized the running game more this season, and Jones and others have responded, but it is strange to see A-Rodge hovering around that “Mendoza line.”
But he wins, so who is to complain? (A cardinal rule of writing is never ask a question in a piece without answering it, so I will conjecture that the answer to my previous question is Packer fans.)
Let the numbers say what they will. Ultimately, this game will come down to the play of those two quarterbacks. Will the Hail Mary Aaron, who is winless at The Vault, play down to his numbers or pull out something heroic on Monday night? Or will Captain Kirk take on the mantle of his early season loss, and boldly go to where he’s seldom gone before (that is get a win in prime time game on national TV over a team with a winning record in a very big game)? The answer to those questions remain to be seen. Regardless, whether the game is for the playoffs (if the Los Angeles Rams lose earlier in the weekend, the Vikings will be in), the division or redemption, the game is surely to be close and an epic battle. Not to be missed.
Minnesota—27, Green Bay—23