Never Draft Kickers

Aug 27, 2017; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings kicker Kai Forbath (2) before the game against the San Francisco 49ers at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Kickers are the most overvalued players in all of sports. Fans, media and even coaches and players consistently overestimate the impact a kicker has on the rest of the game. This is especially present after late-game field goal heroics or failures. So when your favorite teams trades two draft picks to select the kicker of their dreams, it makes sense to take a deeper dive into why kickers aren’t worth the draft capital.

First, we have to discuss the value of a kick. And to do that, we have to talk about probability. Say you have a kicker that makes 85% of his field goals. Replacing him with a better kicker ups your rate to 90%. Essentially, you’ve bought makes on 5% of field goals you otherwise would have missed. The Vikings kicked 38 field goals in 2017, so a transaction like that would bring them from about 32/38 to about 34/38. A six point difference.

So why so small? We can explain this using expected points, or a tool where you take the average of the amount of points all teams score from given situations. For example, take a 40-something yard field goal. In 2017, kickers were 80% on such plays. Since making one is worth 3 points, you can “expect” 80% of 3 points, or about 2.4. So if the first 2.4 points of a field goal are “expected”, that means you’re only able to scrounge out 0.6 more points (on average) for having a good kicker. Realistically, probably only 0.3 or 0.4.

Say you can make that upgrade – about 0.3 more points on average per field goal than your typical special teams unit. The average team kicks somewhere around 30 field goals per year. So where the average team can expect 72 points out of their field goal unit, you can expect a whopping… 84. A 12 point difference. Four kicks on a whole season. On average, you can’t even expect to gain one more point in every game because of an upgraded kicker. Only ¾ of a point. From an EPA perspective, that’s about the same in value as forcing an incomplete pass on 2nd and 4 in the 1st quarter. Better than nothing, but ultimately forgettable.

In 2017, the average kicker made 83% of his field goals. 20 kickers within two or three kicks of that (one standard deviation). The variance from kicker to kicker is incredibly small.

But, you may contend, that one kick can mean the difference. A big-time kick can lead to a win that’s the difference between making and missing the playoffs, or getting a bye. While it’s true that close games decide seasons, I’m here to prove that the kick isn’t what got you there. In a metaphor, it’s not the last step that wins you the marathon, it’s all the steps that got you there.

We’ll use a famous example – Adam Vinatieri’s game-winning make in Super Bowl XXXVI. According to PFR’s expected points added metric, it only added a quarter of a point, since most teams are able to score from their opponent’s 30. That play ranked as the 26th most impactful play over the course of the game. Here’s what ranked above it:

 

Quarter Time Down ToGo Location Detail
2 8:58 1 10 RAM 39 Kurt Warner pass incomplete intended for Isaac Bruce is intercepted by Ty Law at STL-47 and returned for 47 yards, touchdown
3 3:35 3 5 NWE 45 Kurt Warner pass incomplete intended for Torry Holt is intercepted by Otis Smith at NWE-37 and returned for 30 yards (tackle by Kurt Warner)
4 10:29 4 3 NWE 3 Kurt Warner right end for no gain (tackle by Roman Phifer). Kurt Warner fumbles (forced by Roman Phifer), recovered by Tebucky Jones at NWE-3 and returned for 97 yards. Penalty on Willie McGinest: Defensive Holding, 2 yards (no play)
2 1:33 1 10 RAM 25 Kurt Warner pass complete to Ricky Proehl for 15 yards (tackle by Antwan Harris). Ricky Proehl fumbles (forced by Antwan Harris), recovered by Terrell Buckley at NWE-45 and returned for 15 yards (tackle by Torry Holt)
2 14:54 3 15 RAM 32 Kurt Warner pass complete to Az-Zahir Hakim for 29 yards (tackle by Terrell Buckley)
4 1:37 1 10 NWE 26 Kurt Warner pass complete to Ricky Proehl for 26 yards, touchdown
4 4:32 2 9 NWE 38 Kurt Warner sacked by Willie McGinest for -16 yards
2 13:17 4 5 NWE 34 Jeff Wilkins 52 yard field goal no good
4 6:17 2 10 RAM 19 Kurt Warner pass complete to Ricky Proehl for 30 yards (tackle by Ty Law)
4 0:29 2 10 NWE 41 Tom Brady pass complete to Troy Brown for 23 yards (tackle by Adam Archuleta)
4 14:09 3 5 RAM 43 Kurt Warner pass complete to Az-Zahir Hakim for 14 yards (tackle by Lawyer Milloy and Terrell Buckley)
1 14:39 2 10 RAM 39 Kurt Warner pass complete to Torry Holt for 18 yards (tackle by Tebucky Jones)
1 3:15 4 3 NWE 32 Jeff Wilkins 50 yard field goal good
2 6:22 3 1 NWE 50 Kurt Warner pass incomplete intended for Ricky Proehl (defended by Lawyer Milloy)
4 10:34 3 3 NWE 3 Kurt Warner pass incomplete intended for Isaac Bruce (defended by Ty Law)
2 2:13 3 8 NWE 39 Tom Brady sacked by Leonard Little and Tyoka Jackson for -7 yards
2 11:45 1 20 NWE 44 Antowain Smith right end for -3 yards (tackle by Dexter McCleon and Adam Archuleta)
2 0:36 1 8 RAM 8 Tom Brady pass complete to David Patten for 8 yards, touchdown
4 12:05 1 10 NWE 31 Kurt Warner pass complete to Marshall Faulk for 22 yards (tackle by Tebucky Jones)
4 7:59 3 2 NWE 33 Tom Brady pass incomplete intended for Patrick Pass
1 5:42 3 4 RAM 36 Kurt Warner pass complete to Isaac Bruce for 11 yards (tackle by Lawyer Milloy). Penalty on Terrell Buckley: Defensive Holding (Declined)
4 7:55 4 2 NWE 33 Ken Walter punts 53 yards, returned by Dre’ Bly for 11 yards (tackle by Tebucky Jones). Penalty on O.J. Brigance: Offensive Holding, 7 yards
1 15:00 NWE 30 Adam Vinatieri kicks off 69 yards, returned by Yo Murphy for 38 yards (tackle by Otis Smith)

There’s some obvious stuff in here – a pick six, some longer field goals, touchdowns, sacks – but there’s also some innocuous failed 3rd downs and even a -3 yard rush on 1st and 20. Ultimately, this game turns out differently if you erase the big time plays, not just the last one. We have an easy time realizing that a game’s final failed Hail Mary didn’t decide the outcome – why is it different with similarly predictable field goals?

This bears out on the aggregate, too. By definition, field goals can only add 3 points, and the vast majority of those points are already expected to happen. It’s like getting a trophy for not cheating on your spouse, or showing up to work on time. You don’t get any lollipops for doing what you’re already expected to do, and what everyone else can do as well.

Finally, teams make similar declarations every year. Since re-alignment in 2002, there have only been seven kickers selected in the 4th round of the draft or higher. Five of those were over ten years ago. Teams never see kicking as a valuable enough proposition to spend high capital on it. Further, only two or three kickers get drafted every season. That means every year, 29 or 30 teams decide that no kicker in the entirety of college football can improve upon their guy enough to justify even the smallest of draft investments.

This may come off as a bunch of analytics nerd mumbo jumbo. Maybe if I’m lucky, Dave Gettleman will make fun of me. But in a more anecdotal, logical sense, the argument is as so: All kickers are close to the same. The difference between a good kicker and a bad kicker is pretty small. Upgrading your kicker to any sort of significant degree is really hard, and even if you’ve done that, it doesn’t make you that much better.

Never draft kickers.

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