Justin Jefferson: Stats Pace Tracker
Dustin Baker
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Justin Jefferson: Pace Tracker
In Week 8 at Green Bay, the Minnesota Vikings upended the rival Packers not by the theatrics of Justin Jefferson but by the explosive workhorsedness of Dalvin Cook. The 25-year-old Vikings halfback was tremendous as he scampered for 226 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns. In the annals of Vikings individual performance history, Cook’s game versus the Packers assuredly ranks in the Top 10 and perhaps even Top 5.
Cook temporarily borrowed the spotlight from rookie Justin Jefferson – a player that made the Vikings disappointing season worthwhile and watchable leading up to Week 8. Minnesota held a 1-5 record before the team traveled to Wisconsin, so Vikings loyalists clung to silver linings like Jefferson’s surprising production.
Jefferson sweltering output for a rookie is impressive, even for a franchise that has a notable history of showcasing otherworldly offensive rookies. See: Randy Moss, Adrian Peterson, and Percy Harvin. The 21-year-old LSU alumnus had a “slow” start to 2020, which makes his rookie campaign all the more distinguished. Jefferson did not start in Week 1 and 2, instead making an impact in Week 3 against the Tennessee Titans. In that game, Jefferson shattered social norms. He torched the Titans usually-stiff secondary to the tune of 175 yards and a touchdown.
His pace suffered a setback in Week 8 during the Vikings win at Lambeau Field – a trade-off most sensible fans will welcome. Jefferson notched three catches for 26 yards while Minnesota upset Green Bay, 28-22.
So, where does Jefferson’s pace currently stand?
Receiving Yards by a Rookie
Keeping tabs on this sprint is bittersweet. Vikings legend Randy Moss ranks rather high on the receiving-yards-by-a-rookie list when he registered 1,313 receiving yards in 1998. The record-holder is wideout Bill Groman who, in 1960, hauled in 1,473 receiving yards for the Houston Oilers. After that, former Arizona Cardinals pass-catcher Anquan Boldin ranks second on the list all-time rookie list with 1,377 receiving yards in 2003. Then comes Moss.
To have a crack Groman’s record, the climb is steep – especially within an offense where Dalvin Cook is cooking. Jefferson will need to do some heavy aerial lifting consistently. What’s more, this obviously operates under the pretense that Jefferson avoids injury and the coronavirus.
Jefferson will need to tabulate 101.2 receiving yards per game to surpass Groman. It is a tall task but not impossible. Mathematically, however, each week that Jefferson accrues less than 101 yards, the path to the record narrows.
Thru 7 Games as a 21-Year-Old
As a receiving-yards stat, Jefferson fell in this metric because of his lack of receiving yards at Green Bay. After the Vikings embarrassingly lost to the Atlanta Falcons, Jefferson had the most receiving yards by a 21-year-old through six games in NFL history. That pace has slowed.
Through seven games as a 21-year-old, Jefferson stares upward at the Pittsburgh Steelers JuJu Smith-Schuster, who had 594 receiving yards through seven games in 2018 (at age 21). Jefferson, for the moment, has 563 receiving yards to his name – a 31-yard drop-off from Smith-Schuster.
Ergo, there is nothing Jefferson can do about the “through seven games” metric now. It is in the past. He can look forward, though. The next stepping stone is “most receiving yards through eight games as a 21-year-old.” Unsurprisingly, Smith-Schuster owns this “pace record.” After eight games in 2018, the Steelers wideout had tallied 672 receiving yards.
If one is keeping track at home (or even cares about this 21-year-old pace parameter), Jefferson will need to snatch 110 receiving yards against the Lions to top Smith-Schuster’s pace.
The Vs. Moss and Diggs Angle
And, then there is the Moss-Diggs-Vikings history stuff. Believe it or not, Diggs has the most receiving yards as a Viking through seven games. In 2015, Diggs was the owner of 573 receiving yards through seven contests. Again, Jefferson is at 563 yards in second place for this all-time [Vikings] metric – 10 yards behind Diggs.
Looking ahead to “through eight games as a Viking,” Diggs sees a modest spike to 604 yards. Therefore, to re-establish his grip on this Vikings record, Jefferson only needs to grab 42 receiving yards versus the Lions in Week 9. No matter the ebb and flow of this weekend’s game, Jefferson is more than capable of achieving that mark.