How Much Would it Cost to Pry Away #32 From The Lions?
K. Joudry
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Quite often, there’s a lot of interest in the #32 spot. Why? Because it’s the final one of the first round. First-round selections give teams 5 years of contract control. Plus, teams often see someone sliding down the board who they aren’t sure will last well into the second round, prompting some to feel like they need to move up to get their man. Generally speaking, it can be tough to do business with a division rival. Might there be a deal that works for both the Lions and Vikings?
Earlier, Lions GM Brad Holmes acknowledged that he’d be open to moving the #2 pick. That’s a strategy that makes sense, especially since there isn’t a clear-cut consensus on who ought to go at the top. The hope from Detroit would be that a team falls in love with someone, thereby prompting them to move a ton of picks in exchange for Detroit’s 2nd overall selection.
Might a similar rationale apply to the Lions at 32?
Like the Vikings, the Lions will value that final pick because it’s the last one that comes with that fifth-year option. What’s a realistic price to snag it?
I pursued a couple avenues to help get a sense of what this might look like. The PFF mock simulator allowed me to pause the draft at 32, sending offers in Detroit’s direction. Various failed offers eventually led me toward trading Minnesota’s 2nd and 3rd – the 46th and 77th picks – for the 32 spot. The old draft pick value chart suggests that the deal was a bit of an overpay from the Vikings. Over the Cap has a trade value chart. That one indicates that Minnesota overpaid by a considerable margin (a score of 1244 to 1859). Even still, it’s hard to imagine the Lions move on from 32nd unless a team is willing to overpay to a certain extent.
Part of the takeaway, then, is that moving up to 32 won’t be easy. Including the 46th pick is the logical starting point since it mitigates the risk for Detroit. They don’t completely give up on a tier of players. Rather, they drop 14 spots in the hope that more quantity will cover the quality drop off. Sending along the third round selection is likely too much, but Minnesota may consider it if the perfect player is there.
What happens if teams have concerns about choosing a center in the opening round? Might Tyler Linderbaum at 32 be worth it? What about a player like George Karlaftis or one of the high-end receivers mysteriously dropping? If these things happen, the Vikings may look to do business with the Lions.
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