I am going to answer this question two different ways, but must preface both by letting everyone know that I believe for many reasons the Vikings should have moved on from him years ago. His mere presence on the field does many things: It limits our offense and also telegraphs those same limits to the defense. Any pass play with Adrian on the field must be very short because of his inability to block and the fact defenses no longer sell out on a play action to Adrian. It also forces the offensive coordinator to decide who he wants to be comfortable Adrian with Sam under center, or Sam with himself in the shotgun.
As to Adrian’s worth, I put his actual market value at three to four million. I am aware his last full season in 2015 he led the league in rushing with 1485 yards. But he had 39 more attempts than the running back with the second in attempts that year, because you have to force feed him carries for him to be effective, his history shows that the more attempts per game he gets the more effective he was. In 2015 was also 15th in yards per attempt, and number one in fumbles. His 1,485 that led the league in 2015 was the lowest total to lead the league since LaDanian Tomlinson in did the same in 2007, who had 1474. It was a simply a product of snaps, he is no longer the back that can take a snap right at a defense that knows exactly what we are doing and be productive.
All that being said I’ll give everyone of you Adrian believers the benefit of the doubt and say he’s still just as good as he was in 2015 and say that he will be the 15th best back this year (Even though I do highly doubt that) that puts his value somewhere between Ryan Mathews at 11th making $5 million and Frank Gore at 19 making $3.5 million, hey don’t forget to adjust for age 32 on march 21, and the fact that he has only played 34 out of a possible 64 games the last four seasons. That is what his market value is, which does not take into account some desperate team trying to sell tickets with a name not an actual on field product.
The other way I like to look at his worth is his trade value, not in the normal sense of the word trade though because no one is crazy enough to actually take that salary on but in the sense of what a 18 million dollar cap number buys you. I would say it comes very close to buying you Matt Kalil, TJ Lang, and Luke Jokel, three starting offensive linemen. Feel free to swap a starting free agent linemen with any of these name as you see fit.
So whats Adrian worth? To the Vikings the way I see it nothing, he is actually hurts the teams potential if they were to renegotiate and attempt to keep him here! So here’s to Hoping Rick and I are on the same page!
Almost forgot to remind everyone that he also fumbled away 2 playoff runs! So there’s that, too.