Now that I’ve gone through the Minnesota offense, it only makes sense to take a look at the Seahawks offense as well. This game may be one of the more underrated going into this weekend, with the MVP candidate Russell Wilson going up against a Vikings offense that finally seems to have found its groove. So, without further ado, let’s meet the Vikings’ week five competition.
ESPN Projection: 24.2
Yahoo Projection: 24.38
Josh’s Projection: 29.6
There’s not much more to say about Wilson this year; he’s just been awesome to watch. Even as the offensive line and defense falls apart around him, he manages to keep his team a contender.
This week he plays a Vikings defense that, while not being quite as awful as his own, has still been one of the worst in the NFL, especially against the pass. They also allow the highest score rate in the league according to pro-football-reference, at 60.5%. I would bet on Wilson having at least three touchdowns this week, and he’s always a threat to run for a score.
ESPN Projection: 13.9
Yahoo Projection: 13.62
Josh’s Projection: 10.4
Carson has averaged 90 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown over the first four weeks of the season, and I think he gets a similar yardage total. However, his only two rushing touchdowns this season came from the one yard line against the Dolphins last week.
Miami has been the third-worst red zone defense, allowing 78.6% of red zone possessions to end in touchdowns. Meanwhile, Minnesota has quietly been the second-best red zone defense, allowing a touchdown rate of just 41.2%.
It’s not like Minnesota is untested against great scoring backs, either. In games against Aaron Jones, Jonathan Taylor, and Derrick Henry they allowed a combined four rushing touchdowns. The only other time Seattle played a top-15 red zone defense (New England), Wilson led the offense through the air, throwing for all five of Seattle’s touchdowns.
If Carson is going to score a touchdown this week, it is more than likely going to be a reception, but he has just one touchdown reception in the past three weeks.
ESPN Projection: 11.2
Yahoo Projection: 11.9
Josh’s Projection: 12.2
Lockett was very quiet in week four, catching just two passes for 39 yards. I don’t want to bank on any one receiver for Seattle having monster games this week, just because of Wilson’s ability to get every player involved in this offense. Last week eight different receivers caught multiple passes, and in three of the four games seven or more players have multiple receptions.
However, outside of this past Sunday, Lockett has been the clear favorite. In the first three games, he had eight, eight, and thirteen targets. Lockett has also been a reliable red zone target for Wilson, especially in the aforementioned New England game.
I believe the sites got this projection correct. Lockett isn’t a lock to have a huge yardage output, but he is still a threat for a touchdown reception or two.
ESPN Projection: 11.2
Yahoo Projection: 11.8
Josh’s Projection: 14.9
Metcalf has been the most consistent receiver for Seattle, especially after Lockett’s subpar week four. He’s had exactly four receptions in every game, has never gone for fewer than 90 yards, and has scored in three of the first four games.
The Vikings have been the absolute worst defense against explosive pass plays, allowing 13% of opposing passes to go for 20 yards or more. This makes for a dream matchup for Metcalf. Eight of his 16 receptions this year have been for over 20 yards.
Because of his deep threat combined with Minnesota’s young secondary that has been plagued with injuries, Metcalf is a great WR1 candidate this week and is sure to give Vikings fans headaches all afternoon.