Frey’s Fantasy Focus: Can the Vikings Overcome the Bucs Defense?
Josh Frey
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The Vikings have a very difficult matchup this week against Tom Brady’s Buccaneers. Minnesota has to find a way to win though if they want to remain in the playoff picture. In order to do that, their offense will have to show up against Tampa’s strong defensive unit. So, how will the Vikings stars perform in this must-win game?
Kirk Cousins
ESPN Projection: 16.2
Yahoo Projection: 18.25
Frey’s Projection: 20.5
Cousins has been incredible over the course of the past month. He has tossed 11 touchdowns to just one interception in Minnesota’s last four contests. In my blueprint to how the Vikings can win this week, I said that Cousins is going to have to get involved in the offense with a few big plays early on.
Given that the Buccaneer defense has been susceptible to giving up explosive passing plays this year, Cousins should be throwing bombs early and often in this game. That shouldn’t be of any concern, either. His deep ball is one of the most underrated parts of his game, and it should be on full display Sunday.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats,when throwing to his left for 20+ yards, Cousins’ passer rating is 115.5, and to his right it is 111.9. The league average to the left for 20+ yards is 73.9, and to the right is 79.2. His ability to throw downfield is elite.
Dalvin Cook
ESPN Projection: 17.4
Yahoo Projection: 16.05
Frey’s Projection: 15.4
Dalvin Cook is going to have to face the toughest part of this Bucs’ defense, which is their front seven. They have stars all over from Jason Pierre-Paul to Ndamukong Suh. Tampa has given up a league-low 890 rushing yards at just 3.3 yards per carry. They have not allowed a single running back to break 100 yards, either.
Cook may be in for a tough day efficiency wise, but he should still get a fair amount of touches. Even if the running game doesn’t get going, Cook may still be involved with screen passing. New Orleans implemented a lot of screen plays with Alvin Kamara in their week one win over Tampa, and Minnesota may steal from that game plan this week.
Adam Thielen
ESPN Projection: 11.8
Yahoo Projection: 10.71
Frey’s Projection: 12.6
Thielen jumped right back into the offense last week, hauling in eight catches and a touchdown on 11 targets. Cousins has still seemed to favor his veteran receiver in close games this season, and Thielen should get plenty of attention this week.
Thielen has found a ton of production in the red zone this season. On his 15 targets, Thielen has caught a league-high 11 touchdowns, and with his 14 catches, he has the highest catch percentage of anyone with 10 or more targets. Once teams get into the red zone, Tampa’s defense is pretty average, ranking among the bottom-15 in touchdown percentage at 63.2%.
Justin Jefferson
ESPN Projection: 10.8
Yahoo Projection: 10.44
Frey’s Projection: 15.2
Justin Jefferson has quickly gone from being one of the best rookie receivers to one of the best receivers in the league. Jefferson has put up double-digit fantasy outputs in each of the last four games, and there is no reason to believe he is going to slow down now. His presence as a deep passing threat has been heralded over and over. It’s well deserved, too.
A new emergence has occurred, though, and he has proven to be an extremely clutch receiver as well. He caught two touchdowns in the win against Carolina, and he caught a momentum-shifting 40-yarder last week through a DPI penalty. He should be in line for a touchdown and at least two or three deep targets in this game.