What are the Vikings going to do with $19 million?

Vikings WR Stefon Diggs hauls in a touchdown pass against the Saints in week 1. (Photo Courtesy: Andy Kenutis)

We got Kirk Cousins. We got Sheldon Richardson. We got Kendall Wright. We got a few other guys I hadn’t heard of until a month ago. The buzz of free agency has died down to almost a standstill. The NFL draft is rapidly approaching, and as things currently stand, the Vikings have just a tick over $19 million in cap space. What can we expect Spielman and the gang to do with the remaining funds (9th most in the league) before the much anticipated 2018 season kicks off?

Firstly, there’s the draft to take care of. Pending any trades to acquire more draft picks or movement during the draft, the Vikings will select eight players, meaning that approximately $2-3 million is required. Let’s assume it’s on the higher end of that scale, leaving the Vikings with $16 million after draft weekend.

There’s a strong possibility that the Vikings use some of that $16 million to snap a few more players in free agency, but it seems unlikely that they will make any further big splashes. I expect the Vikings to seek out a few more camp bodies in the coming months, but nothing that will likely make an impact against the cap in a meaningful way.

This leaves the Vikings with two options:

1. Extend players coming off contract at the end of 2018 a year early?
2. Do nothing, and roll the cap space over into next season.

Functionally, there’s not a great deal of difference between the two options, but it might be in the Vikings’ best interest to extend one or two of its stars this offseason.

It makes sense to extend Anthony Barr this offseason. Barr will be an Unrestricted Free Agent after the 2018 season, and Spotrac estimates his market value at 5 years, $38.4 million – which averages $7.68 million a year. I suspect he’ll make a bit more than that, but the Vikings could potentially try and lock him down longer term before that figure inflates too much further. Barr is already due $12.3 million on his 5th year option, so it could make sense for the Vikings to front end a contract and pay him $15-16 million in 2018. For Barr, he makes more money in the short term and has long term security. For the Vikings, they have their man locked in for the future, without giving up flexibility a few years down the track.

Rounding out the linebacker tandem, Eric Kendricks could also be a candidate to extend before the 2018 season begins. He is due a modest $1.1 million this season, and will be looking at a big contract next year. Like Barr, the Vikings may opt to utilize their $16 million in cap space to lock Kendricks up for the future and not allow him to hit free agency, absorbing a portion of the cost into this year’s salary cap.

I personally think it’s unlikely the Vikings opt to extend Trae Waynes this offseason, but it’s always a possibility. It’s rare for the Vikings to not take the fifth year option on their first round picks, which keeps him on the roster for the next two seasons.

The other two obvious candidates for extensions are Danielle Hunter and Stefon Diggs. Both players would ignite a bidding war in free agency, and in an ideal world this situation wouldn’t unfold. Diggs, on his rookie contract, is a bargain at $1.9 million for 2018. The wide receiver market has exploded in recent times, with teams paying up to $16 million a year for “potential” (see Sammy Watkins). Based off the recent WR market, I find it unlikely we’ll be able to keep Diggs in purple unless he’s willing to stick around for less to catch passes from Cousins and compete for championships.
Hunter is a tough player to evaluate, as despite his sack and tackle production going down in 2017, he was exceptional against the run, and performed well in a lot of the less obvious performance markers. He’ll fetch something similar to Everson Griffen’s 4 year, $58,000,000 contract in my opinion. It would be somewhat of a gamble to invest so much money this offseason in a player coming off his first full season as a starter, but much like they did with Griffen, the team may bank on his potential now rather than waiting a little longer and paying a premium for it.

Whether some of these players are extended this offseason or next, it’s also important to note that the team has just under $42 million in cap space for 2019 at this stage. In an ideal world, the Vikings draft a handful of stars in the upcoming draft, giving them even more cap and roster flexibility moving forward. Regardless of what Spielman and co opt to do, there’s little doubt the roster is extremely well rounded (offensive line doesn’t count…right?) for the upcoming season, so we can ignore the tough decisions that will have to be made for just a little longer.

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