Views from Packers Fandom: There’s A Good Reason Why Super Bowl Odds Haven’t Moved Much For The Minnesota Vikings
Joe Johnson
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Editor’s Note: Part of what we do at purplePTSD.com is attempt to show the full spectrum opinions that Vikings fans have (by bringing on as many writers as possible). Beyond that, we also want to see what football fans that support other teams think about the Vikings as they have less Kool-Aid on their breath when they talk about the Purple and Gold. So, with that in mind, I asked my cousin (who grew up a Packers fan) to let me know his thoughts on the Vikings and the free agency moves they’ve made, through the lens of the fact that the Vikings have the same Super Bowl odds as the Packers despite the fact that the Vikings have a top two or three defense in the league and the fact that they added Kirk Cousins and Sheldon Richardson this off-season.
This was his response:
The day after Super Bowl LII, odds for Super Bowl LIII were released. The Minnesota Vikings odds of winning it all next season were 12:1. Only the New England Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Green Bay Packers had better odds than the Vikings.
Die-hard fans probably disagreed with those odds, but the guys who make them do what they do for a reason. If those same die-hards were to think about the state of the team at the end of the season, they’d see that 12:1 odds are more than fair.
But the Vikings had the stingiest defense in the NFL last season. They also had two of the best wide receivers in the game and a good run game that was fueled by reserve players. The offensive line was better than it was in 2016, but it was still not good. As for the offense, it was run by a backup quarterback that had played poorly every other chance he had before lighting it up last season.
Only four teams had better odds which means despite the team’s shortcomings, it was considered one of the five teams most likely to win the Super Bowl in 2019.
That’s not bad.
But with the acquisition of Kirk Cousins, surely the team’s odds would improve—right? Yes, Case Keenum did a stand-up job in 2017. But there was no reason to believe this was the new norm rather than the exception.
At his previous stops in Houston and with the Rams, Keenum looked nothing like the guy the Vikings saw. Cousins, on the hand, has thrown for 4000+ yards in each of the last three seasons. He performed well in 2015 and ’16 when he had veteran receivers. He did well last season with a less experienced group.
There is no reason to think that his production is going to dip from one year to the next. If anything, with the talent he’ll have to work with in Minnesota he could easily pass for 5,000+ yards next season.
So, then how come the Vikings Super Bowl odds didn’t move much after they acquired Cousins? According to Betway.com (as of 3/26), the Vikings odds are now 10:1.
They replaced a one-hit wonder with one of the best and most reliable quarterbacks in the game. They strengthened the defensive front by signing Sheldon Richardson. They haven’t addressed their secondary needs yet. But with what they have done and how good they already were, surely, they deserve to be on par with the Steelers—right?
Actually—no. The reason is simple. The Vikings have yet to address the team’s weakest unit– the offensive line.
While the group was much better than the one they fielded in 2016, it was still one of the lower rated lines in the NFL. Pro Football Focus ranked the Vikings line No. 22 last season. According to them, the unit surrendered 154 pressures and used 26 different combinations.
To make matters worse, their best player, Joe Berger, retired. The unit also lost some depth with Jeremiah Sirles signing with the Carolina Panthers. Of the guys left, Nick Easton is probably the best of the bunch. Pat Elflein isn’t bad, but the team will need him to be better next season.
Both are recovering from ankle surgery but are expected to be okay.
Mike Remmers was much better as a guard than tackle. With Berger retired, they could move him back inside. But they still need to do something about the tackles. Riley Reiff was unimpressive, and Remmers needs to move back to guard. They acquired Tom Compton, but it is hard to get excited about a guy Pro Football Focus rated as ‘poor.’
To be fair to the 2017 unit, they did only give up 11 sacks on the year. But Case Keenum deserves a lot of the credit for that. After Dalvin Cook went down, despite the lack of talent in the backfield, the run game was the seventh best in the league.
Cousins has decent but not great mobility, but with $84 million guaranteed to him over the next three years, the last thing the Vikings want is for him to get injured because the offensive line missed a block. If they do, and Cousins misses time, the team will have to turn to their new No. 2 quarterback, Trevor Siemian.
With Siemian as the backup and no improvement on the offensive line, their odds probably shouldn’t be as good as they are.