- January 6, 2018 at 12:44 pm #19025borm0034ParticipantNewbieRank: Newbie
It’s the first week of January, which means it’s Super Bowl prediction time! Last year, I unveiled the second version of a mathematical model (model V2.0) for predicting which two of the 12 playoff teams would represent their conferences in the Super Bowl. While it was only half-right when predicting Super Bowl LI participants (it was correct on the Patriots, but forecast the wrong NFC birds of prey — the Seahawks, not the Falcons), a slight modification of the model (model V2.0m) was right on target for predicting the Patriots’ (record-setting) six-point victory:
Model V2.0 correctly chose winners of 68% of postseason games since 2012. It predicts @Patriots have a 66% chance of W (5-6 pt edge). #SB51
- January 6, 2018 at 6:26 pm #19031Myke_TNewbieRank: Newbie
The Patriots are beatable this year! But thats what I thought last year too…
- January 6, 2018 at 9:18 pm #19036Joe JohnsonKeymasterNewbieRank: Newbie
Thanks for posting this Sean! I think Luke mentioned something similar on our podcast this week, but I’d say that while people are saying stuff like “the vikings have been favored before and that turned out badly” (not here, just out in the ether), I’d argue that never has a Vikings team (in our lifetime, assuming everyone here is around 35 and younger) been this disciplined as a whole, this talented across the board (or on paper/on the field at every position) and also this well coached. That’s why they really only lost one game in the second 3/4ths of the season and why people are picking them. This defense and offense were the only two late in the season that were ranked in the top FIVE. That’s nuts.
So, while I am admittedly nervous, I’m really not THAT nervous. Not like previous years and really, outside of 2015 when we weren’t as good as we are now, this will be my first SOBER post-season really since the ’98 and ’00 NFC ships… So, don’t let me down again, dag nabbit. I really don’t think I can handle another few months of drinking bottle shelf vodka.
- January 7, 2018 at 2:08 am #19049borm0034ParticipantNewbieRank: Newbie
Exactly. This team is different and everyone knows it. It all comes down to execution
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.