Players Due for Regression (Part 2)
Micah Tweeten
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Continuing on in the series of players due for regression, I’ve found some more players due for negative regression in the upcoming 2018 season. Click here to see part one of the series as well as how I defined regression and went about this process.
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
2017 Stats: 16 games, 120 carries, 728 yards, 8 TDs, 82 receptions, 826 yards, 5 TDs
2017 Finish: 230 points, 14.4 PPG, RB4
There were two later round running backs that excelled last year and significantly over performed where they were being drafted and those two running backs were keys to winning a lot of leagues for people last year. One of those running backs, Kareem Hunt, was being taken in the 11th around until an injury to Spencer Ware pushed him into a starting role and he was being taken in the third. But the bigger value was a running back that was being taken in the 13th round or later in 12-team leagues, as he was going to be splitting a role at best in his backfield – Alvin Kamara. The Saints’ backfield overperformed significantly and both running backs in the committee were considered top 15 running backs in most standard leagues last year.
When we’re looking at regression, alongside Watson, Kamara seems to be the one player that stands out and is most easy to identify as having an unrepeatable efficiency from last year. Kamara was extremely efficient last year in all aspects of his game: scoring touchdowns, passing yards, and rushing yards. In fact, his efficiency last year gave him one of the top five performances in terms of seasonal efficiency for a running back of all time, according to Numberfire. So what can we expect and what should we have we expected last year out of Kamara given the role he had inside that powerful Saints offense?
(NOTE: Before we continue on, I just have to say, I love that picture of Kamara leaving the Packers in the dust…)
A Historic Year
Last year Kamara ran for 728 yards and eight touchdowns in just 120 carries. That means, on average, we saw him score a touchdown once every 15 carries and each carry he had went for an average of 6.1 yards. If we look at the running back landscape in the NFL and what some of the best performers were last year, we see just how unrealistic and how overly efficient 6.1 yards-per-carry really was. Todd Gurley led the league in rushing and only ran for 4.7 yards per carry. Dalvin Cook looked like a running back monster last year, but only ran for 4.8 yards per carry last year. We’ve seen Le’Veon Bell year after year run around that 4.5 and 4.7 yards per carry range. That’s where we expect the best running backs in the NFL to be – between 4.5 and 4.8 yards per carry. Now compare that with Kamara’s 6.1 last year. It puts it in perspective how ridiculously good of a season he had, but how unrealistic it will be for us to expect him to repeat that again this year. Let’s say Kamara would have run for 4.8 yards per carry last year which would have led the league in yards per carry along with Kareem Hunt and Kenyan Drake. He then finishes the year with only 578 yards on the ground, a 150-yard difference from his 6.1 yards per carry and 728 yards. That’s almost a point a game average that we would have seen him drop, and while it’s in the range of outcomes that he finishes with the same amount of yards this year, that comes out of more opportunity and the fact that he’ll be the lone running back for the first 4 weeks.
Better than Todd Gurley?
To add into this, Kamara also had an otherworldly touchdown rate for running the ball. the average touchdown rate for running backs in the NFL can vary between two and a half and three and a half percent, depending on the way the running back is being used, the team, and the opportunities. Bellcow running backs like Gurley and big backs like LeGarrette Blount see more opportunities near the goalline, which improves their touchdown opportunities and touchdown rate, but it is still around the 3.5-4% range at best. Kamara on the other hand, who is more of a receiving back similar to how the Vikings used McKinnon, somehow scored on 6.67% of his carries, over double the rate of running backs in the NFL. Like previously mentioned, Kamara was getting a touchdown rush one out of every 15 carries in the NFL. In hindsight, looking back at his opportunity, we would have expected him to score somewhere in the three and a half touchdown range, rather than the eight that he did score. If you give him the benefit of the doubt and say he does slightly better than expected and scores four touchdowns instead of the eight he scored, he drops a point and a half per game yet again (meaning just in rushing efficiency, he’s down 2.5 fantasy points per game). But it wasn’t just the running game that Kamara was inefficient. He also excelled in the passing game, which is what his style is more suited for.
Receiving Backs’ Output
Last season, Kamara averaged just over 10 yards per reception in the passing game. While this number is high, it might be closer to the norm than we might expect for most running backs, because Kamara is a primarily receiving back in the Saints offense. We’ve seen players like Darren Sproles, Corey Clement, Tevin Coleman, and others put up numbers like this over the years because of their role in the passing game compared to other running backs that are more running focused. We might see a little regression from Kamara in this aspect as very rarely do we see running backs put up double digits in yards per reception in back-to-back seasons, but given that he’s on the very low end of double digits, I don’t know if it’s going to be enough to actually make a significant difference in fantasy points. But the bigger aspect of work Kamara is going to regress is an exceptional efficiency in scoring through the air.
Reaching the Endzone via the Air
As mentioned, Kamara’s totals through the air last year were 82 receptions for 826 yards and five touchdowns. This means he scored a touchdown on average every 16 times he caught the ball. Running backs on average usually score once every 28 times they touch the ball in the passing game. So Kamara was scoring at nearly twice the rate last year than what we would have expected for most NFL running backs. Again, because Kamara is a pass catching back primarily, we can expect his number to maybe be a little higher than other running backs. But his number was still significantly higher than what we would have expected – or once every 25 catches. According to my touchdown efficiency metric, Kamara should have scored 3.2 times through the air last year, or just over half of what he did end up scoring. When we add that up with his efficiency on the ground, Kamara scored 13 total touchdowns last year, but only should have scored seven. This is one of the biggest discrepancies in expected total touchdowns for any player, regardless of position, in the NFL last year.
A Greater Opportunity
Now I expect Kamara to get more workload and opportunity than he did just a year ago, which should offset some of this efficiency drop. And it helps that Kamara will be the only running back for the first 4 weeks as Ingram serves a suspension. But we also shouldn’t expect the Saints backfield to perform like it did a year ago. First off, it was one of the best tandem backfield performances in the last 30 years between Ingram and Kamara. The fact that both were not only fantasy relevant but both were considered RB1s for much of the year only serves to illustrate that point. We simply can’t expect them to be one of the best backfields in NFL history again. Secondly, the Saints run to pass ratio dropped significantly and unexpectedly last year from what we would have expected based on the last 10 years of Brees and the Saints. And while that number will likely still be lower than the average given that Brees is aging and they have two potent running backs in Kamara and Ingram, we would also expect that number to regress a little bit closer to the mean of what they’ve done over the past years and not a complete switch in play style in just one year. This means that there will be less opportunity overall for carries out of the backfield, which will hurt Kamara more than Ingram, and more passing opportunities which will slightly benefit Kamara (but we can expect much of those passes to go to the receiving corps).
An Inflated Finish
So where does this put Kamara for this year? Last year Kamara finished as the RB4, averaging 14.4 points per game. However, if you would have performed like we would have expected we would have seen him closer to that RB12 range. Right now Kamara is being drafted as the RB6, which is close to his performance from last year when he finished as the RB4. And while we would expect his opportunity to go up and therefore his floor to go up, we can’t expect the same efficiency as a year before so I believe that drafting him as an RB6 is taking Kamara closer to his ceiling then where he will likely finish. I think that if Kamara is being depended upon to finish at the RB6, there will be disappointed fantasy owners by the end of the year as Kamara finishes lower than the draft capital spent. Add in the fact that there’s often a sophomore slump for running backs as teams now have more tape on them, and Kamara could be in for a down year if his opportunity doesn’t rise enough to counterbalance the drop in efficiency that we can expect this year. If you’re taking a guy like Kamara in the first round, you’ll need to balance him with someone with a much more stable floor at as your RB2. This way you’ll have a floor that’s solid from your running backs while also being able to have the opportunity to boom in any given week with Kamara.
Marvin Jones, WR, Detroit Lions
2017 Stats: 16 games, 61 receptions, 1101 yards, 9 TDs
2017 Finish: 164.1 points, 10.3 PPG, WR5
Last year, one of the surprises of the season was Marvin Jones performing not only as a WR1 throughout the year, but as the WR5 overall. Through 16 games last year, we saw Marvin Jones tally up 61 receptions, 1100 yards, and 9 touchdowns. Aside from the situation of the Detroit Lion receiving corps, which I’ll talk about later, Jones’ numbers were completely out of left field when it came to what we were expecting. If you look at his career statistics and how he’s performed with the Lions especially, last year was a significant jump in not only yards, but also touchdowns.
A Dependable Deep Threat?
Last year, Jones had a receiving yards per reception number of 18. Jones is primarily known as a deep ball threat, but even for a deep threat that number was high. If you look at the rest of his years, he averaged between 11 and 16 yards per reception in the NFL. That extra two yards per reception totaled up to over a hundred and twenty yards over the course of the season. If Jones would have performed at his career best rate of 16 yards per reception, Jones wouldn’t have even finished with a thousand yards. If Jones would have regressed down to the league average yards-per-carry, only three wide receivers in the top 20 would have had fewer yards than Marvin Jones: Stefon Diggs, Alshon Jeffery, and Davante Adams. Just by pure logic and by looking at what Jones has done from a career standpoint thus far, that number of yards per reception will drop significantly over the coming season. We would expect that number to be closer to his career average in the 13 to 15 range, which is still league average or above in yards per catch.
Double the Average
Now add in the fact that Jones scored nine touchdowns last year, way beyond his career average. Three years ago, Jones saw 103 targets through the air, and scored on four of those. Two years ago, Jones saw 107 targets through the air and scored on four of those. (Seeing a trend here?) Last year, Jones saw 107 targets yet again, but scored on nine of those occasions. He scored at over twice a rate last year than he had in his previous two years. he scored more touchdowns last year then he had the two seasons before that combined. Part of this is due to the fact that he is a deep threat, meaning touchdown efficiency can sometimes be all over the place. Red zone threats are little more reliable because you know that they’re going to be getting targets in the red zone. Players that are deep threats can sometimes score at overly efficient numbers just given the opportunity. This is what we saw from Jones and while we would love to expect nine touchdowns again from Jones this year, career numbers and NFL averages over the last 10 years show us that that just isn’t likely to happen. We would have expected 4.9 touchdowns out of him last year compared to his nine which is over a four touchdown difference throughout the year, and that’s about where we should expect him again for this year.
Taking this yardage rate and touchdown rate into consideration when thinking through regression, Jones seems poised to be unable to repeat his performance from a year ago. If he would have performed what we could have expected last year, Jones would have finished not as the WR5, but as the WR25.
A Unique Situation
So what can we expect this year? Well, this is where the Lions’ receiving situation that I talked about earlier is coming into play. In the draft last year, the Lions added one of my favorite receivers in Kenny Golladay (aka BabyTron) in the third round. Now Golladay seem to be a part of the future plans for the Lions. He played a little bit last year and even had a week with a high-end fantasy performance, but he also missed five games with a hamstring injury throughout the year. But what was the Lion’s set like when Golladay was on the field? We saw Golladay eat some decent numbers through the air and most of those came at the expense of Marvin Jones. When Golladay was not on the field, we saw Marvin Jones average 5.4 receptions per game and 9.8 targets per game, which is a good healthy workload for a dependable wide receiver. But the problem came when Golladay was on the field: when Golladay was on the field, Jones saw on average 3.1 catches and only 5.2 targets per game, or nearly half of what he saw when Golladay was not on the field. All of that, along with the fact that Golladay has reportedly been playing well so far in offseason activities, serves as a potential warning that Jones may not be getting the opportunity that he saw a year ago. If Golladay is healthy for the 16-game season and continues to eat into Marvin Jones targets like he did just a year ago, Jones is poised for disappointing season as a WR3 or WR4 tier if he can’t sustain his efficiency.
Appropriate Adjustment?
Jones is currently being drafted in the fifth round as the WR23, so it appears that some of the fantasy community are prepared for a drop in efficiency from Jones for this year. But even that number may be too high if Jones can’t keep his opportunity up within the Lions offense. I would expect we are taking Jones near his ceiling as I believe that WR18 will be the ceiling for what Jones will hit this year as he competes for targets with Kenny Golladay and Golden Tate.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
2017 Stats: 14 games, 58 receptions, 917 yards, 7 TDs
2017 Finish: 133.7 points, 9.6 PPG, WR18
Another receiver that I find interesting both in regression and in potential scenario is Juju Smith-Schuster. Smith-Schuster was an exceptional player last year as a lot of leagues had him undrafted and if you snagged him on the wire, he ended up being a key piece to many teams’ fantasy championships. People expected Martavis Bryant to be the WR2 in the Steelers’ receiving sets, but instead it was Smith-Schuster from most of the year. Now, Smith-Schuster is seeing the hype that Martavis Bryant was getting last year. But can he sustain numbers high enough in order to make that hype worth it?
The Steelers selected Smith Schuster in the second round of the 2017 NFL draft and quickly became one of the the most targeted rookies on the waiver wire for the season. He began to assume the role that many expected Martavis Bryant to step into in the 2017 season and ended up being able to catch 58 receptions, 917 yards, and 7 touchdowns. Those numbers were good enough to be the WR18 last year, or a mid to low level starter in most leagues. But this finish was a result of high efficiency numbers that we wouldn’t quite expect for him again this year.
Player Profile – Who is Smith-Schuster?
Coming into the 2017 draft, Smith-Schuster was known as a player who could aggressively go up and get the ball, put his body into a player, and always come down with the ball. He was known for having good hands and a good catch point to be able to catch passes that many other receivers would not be able to. The one aspect of his getting that with lacking, partly do to speed and partly do to effort, was his ability in the deep passing game. And yet last year, Smith-Schuster ended up with a 15.8 yards per catch rate, one of the best in the league last year with the amount of receptions that he had. With a number this high, we would expect him to be a solid deep threat player that relies on long passes similar to a player like Marvin Jones, who we just discussed. But a lot of this came not only from deep routes, but also his ability with the ball in his hands. Because this is not similar to his play style that we would have expected from his college tape and in his rookie year in the NFL, it will be more likely that Smith-Schuster will be unable to repeat the amount of yards he had if his opportunities don’t rise.
A Rookie’s High
Not only was Smith-Schuster effective in terms of yardage, but he was also overly efficient in scoring touchdowns. Last year we saw Smith’s Schuster score seven touchdowns on only 58 receptions, which means he scored once out of every eight catches that yet had – the best rate out of any rookie receiver last year. This meant he was scoring basically every other game throughout last season. We would have expected him to score somewhere between 3.5 and 4 touchdowns last year based on the opportunity that he had in the Steelers’ offense. Because he is a player that can go and get the ball and not as much of a deep threat, he does still present himself as a solid red zone target, but even given his play style and his ability in the passing game, Smith-Schuster will be unlikely to repeat seven touchdowns yet again this year as long as his opportunities don’t also go up with the Steelers offense.
Regression Is Coming…
So what does this regression for Smith-Schuster mean? Instead of finishing as the WR18 which is where he finished last year, Smith-Schuster would have finished as the WR30 had he scored the expected amount of touchdowns. That means he moves from a mid-level to low-end starter in a lague to a flex play or not even start worthy for most of the season.
Now adding to the fact that not only is he due for some regression with efficiency, but Smith-Schuster could also see regression in terms of opportunity. Pittsburgh selected Biletnikoff award-winning wide receiver James Washington in the second round this offseason, marking the second time in two years that they have selected a receiver in the second round. Reports for Washington are already coming in strong throughout this offseason in team activities, and there are rumors that Washington could be the WR2 in their two receiver sets. Washington’s skill set includes not only some of what Smith-Schuster’s does but also some of Martavis Bryant’s that we saw in the years previous. Washington showed ability as a deep threat, despite his 4.54 40 at the combine, and also showed his ability to go up and get the ball. Washington also has the ability to play in both the slot and outside, which would be a benefit to being able to face whichever corner he would match up best against. It seems at least a real possibility that Washington could take away from Smith-Schuster’s targets within the Steelers offense, as we know Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell both have a pretty solid role to play in that offense and likely won’t lose as many targets as perhaps Smith-Schuster. If Washington does in fact play the WR2 role in those sets, we can see Smith-Schuster taking a significant drop back not only in efficiency with each touch but also of regression of overall opportunity. This all leads me to be wary of where he’s being currently selected as the WR17, when his ceiling in efficiency just a year ago was WR18 and they’ve now added not only regression statistically for him, but also put more competition within the receiving core. All of this points to a potentially disappointing season for Smith-Schuster and what many are expecting based on his draft ADP, similar to the disappointment last year with Martavis Bryant.
Alshon Jeffery, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
2017 Stats: 16 games, 57 receptions, 789 yards, 9 TDs
2017 Finish: 132.9 points, 7.7 PPG, WR15
Alshon Jeffery was player who became a consistent wide receiver for that WR2 and flex spot for many teams last year. Jeffery capitalized on the explosive Eagles’ offense with Carson Wentz and was able to score nine touchdowns just one year ago. But as me might expect, if the quarterback of a team is due for regression, the team is likely also due for regression in the passing game. And we saw this proof of Wentz regressing in part 1 of the series, and now will see how it applies to Jeffery for the upcoming 2018 season.
Lowest of the Top 30: Unpredictable?
Jeffery finished last year with 57 catches, 789 yards, and nine touchdowns. This was good enough for a WR15 finish putting him again, along with Smith-Schuster, as a mid to low level starter. But if you look at the final output of top receivers last year, you’ll see some red flags with the season that Jeffery had compared to many of the others. Jeffery’s 789 receiving yards last season were the second lowest number for receiving yards out of the top 30 fantasy relevant wide receivers, with the only one lower being teammate Nelson Agholor. The reason for this is because both Jeffery and Agholor were extremely touchdown dependent in order to have the success they had in fantasy football a year ago.
While touchdowns are a staple for high fantasy output, they are also at times unpredictable in terms of totals. You can know a certain range where a player will likely score for a season, but to predict a high output like the season previous is often unrealistic unless there is a high number of quality opportunities. So how unrealistic is it to expect Jeffery to repeat his nine touchdowns this season? During the last four years of Jeffery’s career prior to last season, Jeffrey scored on a average of 4.7% of his receptions. This means we are to expect Jeffery, if he had continued his rate of receiving touchdowns from 2013-2016, to have scored three touchdowns. Last year, he scored on 15.5% of his touchdowns, or over 3 times the rate that he normally does. Given his opportunity, you would have actually expected him to score more than his usual rate of 4.7% and we would have seen him score somewhere in the 4 to 4.5 touchdown range. But despite expecting a higher than normal rate compared to his career, Jeffery still doubled the touchdown total that we would have expected. And if Wentz is to regress based on last year, we would expect even more regression for Jeffery again this year.
A Low Floor
So how does this fall in line with where we should be taking Jeffery this year? Well if Jeffery’s touchdown rate would have been where we expected it, which was even higher than his career rate, he would have finished as the WR30 instead of the WR15 that he did just a year ago. Despite this touchdown dependency and unlikelihood of being able to repeat the touches or numbers he did just a year ago, Jeffrey is being taken as the WR18 in round four, close to where we had him at his ceiling last season. The only way that Jeffery make sense in round four is if he’s being taken as your second receiver and your primary receiver has a dependable enough floor so that if Jeffery doesn’t score, you don’t completely bust at the wide receiver position. I think we’ll likely be disappointed with where Jeffery ends up landing at the end of the season, but he still has some value and potential for opportunity given the Eagles’ offense.