Kirk Cousins Is A Bad Idea

Now that the Kansas City Chiefs and Washington Redskins have knocked over the first domino with their blockbuster trade of Alex Smith, the QB market is beginning to unfold. The Vikings have their own fluid situation, but there’s a possibility that the Vikings look outside of their own QB room to find their 2018 signal-caller. Now that the Redskins have committed to Alex Smith, Kirk Cousins has hit the market with a market-moving splash.

It’s natural to think about Kirk Cousins, an inevitably coveted NFL quarterback, in purple. But it’s best that you shut that down right now before you get in too deep. Nobody in their right mind has a problem with swinging for the fences if, say, a Peyton Manning sweepstakes comes around. That changes a franchise. But bidding that sort of coin on a guy who might achieve that result is a fool’s errand, and will only hurt the team long-term. A highly paid quarterback who isn’t worth the money won’t grow to get good enough just because he’s highly paid. So what will Kirk Cousins actually demand?

According to Spotrac, Cousins will fetch something to the tune of $25 million per year over 5 years. That’s a contract in line with the last few major QB deals – Derek Carr, Matt Stafford, and the market seems to have finally caught up to the Joe Flacco mistake. That’s not taking into account the possible bidding war – the Broncos, Jets, Bills, and other QB-needy teams may drive his price up even further.

Those are all franchise names – players the team has committed to, for better or worse, and have become the face of their unit. If the Vikings throw this contract at Cousins, they’ll scatter Keenum, Bridgewater and Bradford to the ether. Cousins will become the Vikings. But if he’s as good as Carr, or Stafford, or Andrew Luck, then it satisfies what the Vikings need to win with the roster they have. We’ll also throw Case Keenum in the sample, since Keenum could be franchise tagged for one year, and it’d be a cheaper year than a standard Cousins year.

But is Kirk Cousins as good as those high-pedigree fixtures? Luckily, we have a lot of data to work with. By some of the more traditional statistics:

Y/A Rate QBR ANY/A
Case Keenum 7.4 98.3 71.3 7.03
Andrew Luck (2016) 7.8 96.4 71.2 6.84
Matthew Stafford 7.9 99.3 61.8 7.01
Kirk Cousins 7.6 93.9 50.0 6.38
Derek Carr 6.8 86.4 47.2 6.07

Derek Carr’s 2016 is maybe a better tool to use, where he fits right in with the rest of these quarterbacks. Cousins offers a lower (but not detrimentally so) Y/A and passer rating than the rest of these QBs, but a worse QBR and ANY/A. Which points to difficulty with clutch situations and pressure situations. Lo and behold, Cousins under pressure was a scary sight in 2017. He made plenty of “big time throws,” something accessible with PFF’s QB Annual, but they’re basically high-difficulty throws that net a good result (and PFF still credits you if they’re dropped). Cousins ranked 4th in big time throws under pressure, but also 6th in turnover-worthy plays under pressure. Put more simply, he’s a powder keg under pressure, which isn’t a problem the Vikings are currently equipped to prevent.

A similar patter appears on 3rd and 4th downs as well as the red zone, which contributes to his low QBR. Kirk would have to be paired with an offensive coordinator who would reign in his gunslinging tendencies. High risk throws are okay, but you have to be better at them than Kirk Cousins is. But reigned in Kirk wouldn’t be much better. On throws between 0 and 9 yards, Cousins threw 7 interceptions (more than Stafford, Carr and Keenum combined), and was thoroughly average in his best statistical categories. So you either lean into Cousins, and accept a bunch of picks along with a bunch of big plays, or you reign him in and fail there anyways.

Cousins’ biggest draw is his deep ball. In 2017, lobbed 10 TDs on passes over 20 yards, exactly as many as Matt Stafford, and more than Keenum and Carr. He has more “big time throws” on the whole than all of our chosen competitors except for Matt Stafford, however, Cousins was below league average in this regard. But we can tally his deep passing as at least one positive.

In spite of that one positive, Cousins’ statistical profile doesn’t look great next to a $25 million per year salary. But stats can lie, right? Supporting casts can create illusions about quarterback play, as we Vikings fans know so well. So let’s juxtapose this with tape to see if it bears out:

Cousins has a propensity for creating some baffling mistakes. Here’s fellow PurplePTSD writer Jonathan Kinsley breaking down a few:

These plays may have been influenced by the supporting cast, but they highlight Cousins’ inability to overcome deficiencies elsewhere on the field. If we need perfection surrounding Cousins, is it wise to break the bank for him and jeopardize our ability to sustain that?

That said, it’d be unfair to cherry pick. Cousins does flash ability. Statistically, it’s proven to be too rare for our “Franchise QB” standards, but this is what it looks like when Cousins is “on”.

There are clearly the seeds of accuracy and poise, but if the Vikings are to throw $125 million at a quarterback, it can’t be for potential. Not only is Kirk Cousins not up to snuff for that contract, but committing for multiple years of this level of QB play would be catastrophic. The Vikings have a limited “Super Bowl window,” or the window of time where the defense is in its prime and many of the superstars are still on rookie contracts. If they let Kirk Cousins ruin two to three years of that, and shorten the window by way of salary cap pressure, it would be a franchise-altering mistake.

Thanks for reading!

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