Inside the Mind of Spielman—What Will the Pick Be?
Joe Oberle
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Anytime a team is forced into a draft pick that can be a problem. Say that you are so desperate to fulfill a certain need, that you must select for the position, whether it is a reach (Christian Ponder) or not. It allows other teams to know what you are going to do and then adjust their own strategy.
That’s why it is important not to get locked into the idea that the Vikings will pick an offensive lineman with their first pick because that is a huge need for this team. General manager Rick Spielman never wants anyone—including fans and the media—to know who he is going to pick.
Spielman likes to throw up smoke screens and distractions and diversions—like all the attention paid to Joe Mixon and other running backs this spring. Spielman is the guy in the know and he revels in being the guy in the know. And then when he makes a pick, he celebrates it by saying it is the guy the Vikings wanted all along. That is the way of all NFL GMs, by the way.
The Vikings have a number of needs this spring (we talked about them in two stories on the Vikings’ Offseason Questions, Part 1 and Part 2), but the biggest among them may be picking up some offensive lineman to back up the players the Vikings picked up during free agency—players the team hopes will become the line of the near future.
That’s why Spielman won’t take an offensive lineman with their first pick—Number 48 overall.
The Vikings need the following (in no particular order):
Offensive line depth (with an eye towards a right guard that could start soon)
Defensive tackle to replace the potential loss of Sharrif Floyd
Running back to be the back of the future
Safety that can start now alongside Harrison Smith
Nickel Corner to replace the departed Captain Munnerlyn
Tight End to shore up depth due to the departed Rhett Ellison
Linebacker to replace the retired Chad Greenway and departed Audie Cole
Wide receiver to mitigate losses in depth
Cornerback because you can never have enough
Defensive End to rush the passer because you can never have enough
Quarterback because you have to constantly keep looking for the QB of the future
The draft is long on decent running backs and short on offensive lineman, these two factors should weigh heavily into the decision making of the powers that be at Winter Park. The draft also could see a lot of quality cornerbacks taken in the early rounds, and we know how head coach Mike Zimmer likes to add corners to his defensive arsenal.
Spielman likes to wheel and deal his draft picks—accumulating as many as possible to deal again and improve his draft position or go after someone they want (i.e. moving up to take Teddy Bridgewater in 2014 or Patterson in 2013). The Vikings have no first round pick this time around (thanks to the Sam Bradford trade), but they have two in each of the third and fourth rounds, due to trading with Miami. The total number is eight selections, which is slightly down from the 10 that the pick-hoarding Spielman had to wield in the 2012, 2014 and 2015 drafts.
So where does this all leave the Vikings on April 27? Conventional wisdom would suggest that Spielman doesn’t have enough draft capital to trade what it would require for him to jump up into the first round—not without throwing some current Vikings players (who he wants to keep) into the mix. The Vikings will be observers on Thursday night—as will members of the Vikings media and fans. But Spielman will still be working the phones.
As stated earlier, I believe the Mixon smoke screen is just that and the Vikings will not take him with their first pick. Plenty other running backs (and maybe even Mixon) should be available later in the draft to fill that need.
I think since the Vikings have so many needs in this draft, and the pressure of an opening-day pick is not available to them, it may free them up to take the best player available (which is GM speak for every pick in every draft since the Draft’s inception) and still fill a need. I don’t know who that will be, and I won’t suggest it is not a possibility that Spielman will pair one of those third or fourth-round picks with their second-round slot and move up earlier in the second round to get a player they believe to have first-round talent. That is a real possibility for Spielman, who has done it before.
But if all things stay the same, (perhaps the rest of the GMs throughout the league are wise to Slick Rick’s methods), and the Vikings have to wait until the 48th pick overall to make their first selection, then I believe Zimmer will get himself a defensive lineman (tackle). Malik McDowell from Michigan State, Chris Wormley from Michigan and Caleb Brantley from Florida have all been projected to go anywhere from first to third rounds, so look for the Vikings to zero in on one of them.
The Floyd situation dictates a pressing need for the Vikings (even though the team signed former first-round pick Datone Jones), and, as I said, that can be a problem. But if there is a lot of Mixon steam or Spielman can help facilitate a rush on cornerbacks, and the top offensive linemen are long gone, perhaps the Vikings, who could become desperate if Floyd can no longer play, may be able to get they guy they wanted all along at No. 48.
Then again, I am preparing to hear them say that no matter what happens.