How Much Better Than Case Keenum Is Kirk Cousins?
Brad
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After the stunning trade that sent Kansas City Chiefs starting quarterback Alex Smith to the Washington Redskins, Vikings fans have been salivating at the idea of signing current Redskins starter Kirk Cousins. After a few years of uncertainty and franchise tags, Washington has decided to move on from Cousins. The team not only traded a valuable third round pick, but also a promising young cornerback to acquire and almost immediately offer a four-year extension to Alex Smith. In doing so, the Redskins front office began a wave of free agency hype and speculation that we have not seen since Peyton Manning’s departure from the Colts.
Now, I’m not saying that Kirk Cousins is Peyton Manning – he’s not – but the common consensus on Cousins seems to be that he is a franchise quarterback that can win with good pieces around him. But just how much better is Cousins than 2017 Vikings starter Case Keenum, if he is at all? Cousins will demand a top salary, and signing him might force the Vikings to lose key contributors at other positions. This all begs the question – how much is a franchise quarterback worth? Here are the numbers, and how they represent the gap between Cousins and Keenum.
Physical Profile
At 6’3”, Cousins is close to the ideal size for an NFL quarterback. Keenum stands at a mere 6’1”, and his height was one of the main reasons he went undrafted in 2012 while Cousins was selected in the fourth round that same year. Keenum is about six months older than Cousins, and they probably have about the same amount of tread left on the tires. Both quarterbacks are relatively mobile, but not necessarily dual threats with Cousins running a 4.93 40-yard dash and Keenum running a 4.82.
The two quarterbacks have similar attributes, with Cousins’s slight advantage in height and Keenum’s slight advantage in speed contributing to their respective playing styles. Cousins is better at standing in the pocket and making difficult throws while Keenum is better at evading pressure and keeping plays alive. Neither of these two quarterbacks amaze me with their athleticism, but it isn’t a particular concern either.
Passing Volume and Efficiency
One of the most important stat lines that is contributing to the surge of Kirk Cousins hype among fans of the Vikings and other teams with a question mark at quarterback is his consistency in the passing game. For three straight years, Kirk Cousins has passed for over four thousand yards. On the other hand, Keenum has yet to record a four thousand yard season (that being said, he also has never started sixteen games in a regular season). In 2016, Cousins had a very good statistical season with 4,917 passing yards and a 67% completion rate. In 2017, that passing total would have led the league by over 300 yards. Yes, Kirk. I like that.
Cousins’s 2017 season was less impressive but still above average with 4,093 yards and a 64% completion rate. This difference can largely be attributed to Washington letting DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon walk in free agency and the fact that Cousins had to play behind TJ Clemmings and other less than ideal options on the offensive line. The Redskins’ running game was also poor, averaging only 90 yards per game in 2017. The Vikings would offer Cousins a much better situation, with an even beter receiving corps than what he had in 2016, an efficient young running back in Dalvin Cook, and a steadily improving offensive line.
There have been rumors that Cousins wants to play for a contending team, even if it means for less money. If that is the case, the Vikings would be his best option without a doubt. But would Kirk Cousins make that much of a difference? Keenum took the Vikings to the NFC Championship. In other words, he has more postseason success than Cousins does, who lost to the Packers in the wild card round in in his only career postseason start in 2015.
2017 was Case Keenum’s best season in just about every statistical category. It’s hard to say that his success was solely due to the pieces around him, since he made dozens of dazzling, jaw-dropping plays throughout the year. In addition to this, the offenses he was a part of on the Texans and Rams before joining the Vikings were highly incompetent. Neither team had a good offensive line, and weapons were limited at best. Keenum’s touchdown to interception ratio in 2017 was 3.14, which is better than any single season in Cousins’s career.
Keenum is a very efficient quarterback, whereas Cousins is more of an aggressive quarterback. Yes, Keenum takes shots downfield, but the majority of these come after a scramble, while Cousins prefers to take deep shots from the pocket. Both styles have been proven to be effective in the NFL, especially when the team has a good defense to fall back on. Of course, the Vikings do. In all reality, new offensive coordinator John DeFilippo will likely play a large part in this decision. Having been one of the primary mentors to Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz, I would imagine he would be very interested in signing a player like Cousins.
Expected Salaries
The Vikings were fortunate to get a great performance out of Keenum in 2017 on a very cheap contract. This will not happen again in 2018. The Chicago Bears gave Mike Glennon a contract for $15 million per year in 2017. Mark my words – Keenum will get at least that much. He has already proven himself as, at the very least, a top tier backup, if not a mid-level starter in the NFL.
If the Vikings decide to extend any of the three free agent quarterbacks on the roster, they will likely command around $18 million per year. There have been a few rumors pointing to the Vikings placing a franchise tag on Case Keenum, but personally I don’t see this happening. Franchise tagging a quarterback in the midst of a Super Bowl window seems strange. The front office will want to pick a guy and stick with him for better or worse.
Cousins, on the other hand, will likely command at least $27 million per year. For a team hoping to extend young playmakers like Anthony Barr, Stefon Diggs, and Eric Kendricks, this could be really difficult. Jimmy Garoppolo’s recent contract will give Cousins and his agent a lot of leverage in negotiations, as well as the fact that teams like the Browns, Jets, and Broncos should also be in contention to land him. Yearly totals in excess of $30 million are possible. That being said, the Vikings have one thing that the Browns, Jets, and Broncos to not – a roster built to win. We can only speculate as to what is most important to Cousins, but according to Paul Allen if all offers are similar Cousins would pick the Vikings. This makes sense, and if the Vikings were able to sign Cousins for $23 million or so that would be a dream scenario.
All in all, the numbers tell us that Kirk Cousins is moderately better than Case Keenum and the other current Viking quarterbacks. That being said, Rick Spielman has not historically been the type to overpay for players. If I were the Vikings’ general manager, I would sign Cousins if possible, but not if that meant that I would have to let key players walk or be unable to further bolster the offensive line. I’d tell Kirk he could come play for a contender for $25 million per year. If that’s not enough to seduce him into a signature, then so be it. Case Keenum/Sam Bradford/Teddy Bridgewater is solid, and I can use that money on the interior offensive line. The Vikings are in a good position, and I would predict that the purple nation will know who our quarterback will be prior to the draft in late April. It’s going to be a long offseason, so buckle up and let the war for Cousins begin.