Suddenly, the Vikings Are Overwhelmingly Favored to Make the Playoffs in 2023

Nov 5, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Joshua Dobbs (15) reacts after running for a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

A little over a month ago, many wrote the Vikings off for dead after their 1-4 start to the season and the placement of Justin Jefferson on IR.

It seemed like a rational thing to do at the time. Instead, Minnesota has responded to the challenge of not only playing without their top wide receiver, but games without Kirk Cousins, Christian Darrisaw, and K.J. Osborn.

They’ve rattled off five straight wins, leapt up the NFC standings at 6-4, and now, the Vikings are overwhelmingly favored to make the playoffs in 2023.

The Vikings Are Overwhelmingly Favored to Make the Playoffs

Nov 12, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson (87) celebrates his touchdown against the New Orleans Saints in the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN releases their Football Power Index every week, which includes each teams’ chances of making the playoffs this season. Following Minnesota’s Week 10 victory over the Saints, the Vikings sit with an astounding 86% chance of making the playoffs this year.

The Vikings currently hold the fifth-best odds in the NFC, trailing behind only:

  • Philadelphia Eagles (100.0%)
  • San Francisco 49ers (98.8%)
  • Detroit Lions (97.7%)
  • Dallas Cowboys (97.0%)

It’s been a remarkable turnaround for a Vikings team without many of their key players for different portions of the past month-plus of football. At 6-4, Minnesota holds a 1.5-game lead over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the No. 7 seed in the NFC.

NFL: Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons
Nov 5, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Joshua Dobbs (15) throws the ball under pressure from Atlanta Falcons defensive end Zach Harrison (96) during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

While the Buccaneers do hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Vikings, which could come into play if Tampa Bay gets hot, Minnesota has done a great job of earning wins against teams that they absolutely needed to beat to get into this position.

Minnesota is 6-2 against NFC opponents this season, and the only other team in the NFC with six in-conference wins is the Philadelphia Eagles who sit at 6-0 (including a Week 2 win over the Vikings). They’ve beaten teams like the 49ers, Packers, Falcons, and Saints to earn tiebreakers over all of these teams, further solidifying their spot in the playoffs.

The scariest part is that the Vikings may just be getting started. This offense has hit its stride over the past few weeks, averaging 27.3 points over their last three games (tied for the fifth-most in the league), all without Jefferson. Now, the star receiver could be set to return either this weekend or next to help give the group more firepower.

Nov 12, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Joshua Dobbs (15) warms up before the game against the New Orleans Saints at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Defensively, they’ve allowed just 19 points per game over the same timeframe, which is the 10th-best in the league. There have been steady improvements across the board from this group all season, and now, they are rounding into being one of the elite units in the league.

This is something that could not be said of last year’s defense, which ranked near the bottom of the league in points allowed, total yards allowed, and yards allowed per play. The Vikings have seen massive improvements from players like Jonathan Bullard, Camryn Bynum, and Akayleb Evans while Danielle Hunter should be in the mix for Defensive Player of the Year.

Of course, the fact that Minnesota is now heavy favorites to make the tournament in January is far from a guarantee just like it wasn’t a guarantee that they would miss the playoffs when they began 1-4. The Vikings have plenty of important football ahead of them, but as long as they maintain a top 10 offense along with a top 10 defense, it will be very difficult for opponents to knock them down.

Josh Frey is a Class of 2020 graduate of The College of Idaho and managing editor of PurplePTSD.com. When he’s not writing about the NFL, Josh enjoys running, gaming, or rooting for the Milwaukee Brewers and Bucks. Check out his Twitter account: @Freyed_Chicken.

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