Pro Football Focus Has Breakout Player in Mind for the 2021 Vikings
Dustin Baker
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The Minnesota Vikings are owners of clear-cut expectations in 2021, derived from a 2020 season that went really dastardly – really quick.
Head coach Mike Zimmer’s team gaffed its way to a 1-5 start, nearly slamming the door on any postseason aspirations by the time November flipped on the calendar. After the team’s 1-5 bottoming out, Kirk Cousins and Co. actually did rebound to effectuate a playoff push. But when the stakes were an apex for that – against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys, and Chicago Bears – Minnesota’s defense flatly crumbled.
And that’s why the expectations for 2021 are vivid. Here are the most prominent ones:
1. Mike Zimmer must reach the postseason and win a game or two inside the playoffs
2. Kirk Cousins needs to guide the team to prosperity, steering fully clear of a mediocre record
3. A defensive bounceback from fourth-worst in the league is required
Those are the broadly-themed provisions. Missing out on just one of those goals might cost Zimmer his job.
Individually, an oft-mentioned expectation is prevalent, too. Fans and media collectively agree that – if it is preordained – 2021 should be a breakout year for Irv Smith Jr. He enters his third campaign, owning the TE1 job for the first time in his NFL life.
Smith Jr.’s running mate, Kyle Rudolph, joined the New York Giants via free agent in March.
Now is Smith Jr.’s time, and virtually every football head knows it. That includes Pro Football Focus. PFF’s Sam Monson announced eight players poised to initiate a year-three bust-outs of sorts. For Monson, Smith Jr. fits the description:
“Kyle Rudolph‘s departure has cleared a path for Irv Smith to become the No. 1 guy at tight end in Minnesota. A former second-round pick, Smith has been efficient so far in the NFL without dominating. He has seen a total of 90 targets across his two seasons, a figure that would have ranked just sixth in the NFL at the position in 2020 alone. Smith has only dropped three of those targets and generated a passer rating of 125.0 for his quarterback when the ball has come his way, scoring seven touchdowns. This all suggests that if the Vikings scale up his opportunities, there is a much better year in the tank from a player as dynamic as he is.”
When Rudolph was injured down the stretch last season, Smith Jr. showed out impressively. Most folks believe that “all he needs is targets” to thrive inside the Vikings offense. With Rudolph gone, nothing is stopping Smith Jr. from becoming the tight end version of a bellcow.
He’s got some reasonable company statistically:
The other Vikingsesque tendency around this time of year – that actually makes folks quite angry – bodes well for Smith Jr. The Zimmer Vikings rarely pound home emphasis on WR3, leaving the duty to a WR4-type like Bisi Johnson or Chad Beebe.
That’s fine by Smith Jr. If he need not share targets with a true-blue WR3, well, his target load will rise. He’s even built like a muscular wide receiver, so the Alabama alumnus might wind up as the defacto WR3.
Other players on the year-three breakout list from Monson include Diontae Johnson, Rashan Gary, Darnell Savage, Devin Bush, Damien Harris, Quinnen Williams, and Jonah Williams.