Mock 2024 Vikings Offseason, Part Three: Competitive Rebuild
Henrique Gucciardi
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I know some of you already rolled your eyes because of the title, but bear with me.
We already covered two of the three scenarios I imagine happening. We started with the extremes, discussing an all-in scenario and a future without Kirk Cousins. This leaves the final path, and probably the one that will happen. It’s Adofo-Mensah’s favorite and the fan base’s most hated term: the competitive rebuild.
In case you’re still confused about what a competitive rebuild is, it is like changing a car’s tires while it is going at full speed. It is trying to balance a competitive roster with getting younger and at a better cap situation. The GM knows he has good pieces and is trying to put a good team around its core pieces without burning everything to the ground. This is a very hard thing to do. Both Adofo-Mensah’s abilities and the ownership’s patience will be tested in 2024.
A competitive rebuild approach is what the leadership has been preaching since Day 1, so it makes sense to predict it. But what does this mean for this offseason? It means that the front office will have to be perfect during free agency and Draft, and we’d probably see a few contract restructures during March. Players like Brian O’Neill and Byron Murphy are the two most likely to have their contracts changed, but T.J. Hockenson would be an option as well.
The Third Time Is The Charm
Scouts usually say it takes three years to properly say if a player made it in the NFL. If we take this and use it to evaluate Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s and Kevin O’Connell’s tenure in Minnesota, this is a crucial offseason. The Vikings won 13 games and the division with a horrible defense in 2022 and could’ve had a great 2023 if not for Kirk Cousins’ Achilles tear.
As of now, Adofo-Mensah is under more scrutiny from the media and fans. His first draft wasn’t good, and Kyle Hamilton can’t make a good play where Vikings’ Twitter (or X) doesn’t implode. On the other hand, O’Connell may receive a contract extension this offseason. KAM must nail his choices to remain the Vikings’ GM in the future.
Free agency will be tricky. The Vikings may have to choose between one or two high-impact players or a few cheaper players who may not be as talented. If this was a team just a couple of players away from seriously contending, they could be happy signing just Christian Wilkins and a cornerback. But if you saw any game from last season, you know this roster needs an influx of talent.
As usual, we’re assuming that three things will happen in this scenario. Jefferson will get his money, Hunter will be back, and Harrison Smith will announce his retirement. With Hunter back, a pass rusher isn’t as huge of a priority, although we will see at least one new EDGE in purple and gold. Smith retiring means the Vikings should look for a new safety, considering Lewis Cine hasn’t paid out and Josh Metellus will keep his “do-it-all” role.
An Under-The-Radar Free Agency
There are a few names to keep an eye on during free agency. They aren’t household names and won’t excite many fans, but can drastically improve the pass rush and secondary, along with a few other spots. Even with Hunter remaining in Minnesota, Marcus Davenport and DJ Wonnum are free agents and the Vikings had the 32nd pass rush in the league last season.
Bryce Huff isn’t very good against the run but can go after the QB like a madman. He ranked 8th in ESPN’s pass rush win rate in 2023. Adofo-Mensah showed that he isn’t afraid of going after players with an injury history, and Chase Young fits the mold. He is very young and, when healthy, is a very good pass rusher. If available, Young can help ease the burden on Hunter’s shoulders.
Perhaps the most needed position in the Vikings is the interior defensive line. Dean Lowry didn’t make the impact that the front office hoped for. Grover Stewart could be the run-stopper the defense missed during the last two seasons. Daquant Jones can play in every alignment and be effective going after the QB. Teair Tart faced some concerns about his effort, but he can definitely play. He may not have the stats but can push the pocket against the pass and split double teams in the run game.
Cornerback is a position that the front office has invested in a lot – but with little rewards. Two cornerbacks were selected in the 2022 Draft, plus one in 2023. Byron Murphy was signed during last year’s free agency. The secondary was still bad in a lot of categories, like passer rating allowed, yards after the catch, and passing yards. There are a few sleepers in the cornerback position that could hit the open market. Adding an outside corner means that Murphy can be a full-time slot CB, something he’s very good at.
Chidobe Awuzie played great for the Bengals and is likely to be on the move. Kenny Moore II again had a good season and isn’t afraid to tackle in the run game but is also better in the slot. Sean Murphy-Bunting started his career with the Bucs but played for the Titans last season. He may not have been able to follow up the production that he put up in Tampa Bay, but he has a knack for locating and playing the ball and can be the team’s CB1.
Other positions could be targeted as well. With Powell and K.J. Osborn as free agents, maybe the team will go after a wide receiver. Dalton Risner is also scheduled to hit the open market, and the team could either bring him back or go after someone else. There are also a couple of running backs to bring in and help a running game that needs more juice.
The Draft
I had a clear idea during this draft: take what is available at positions of need. As this is a competitive rebuild, there was no urge to take a QB, as the Vikings could target someone in next year’s draft. This doesn’t mean they won’t select one if the opportunity exists. As was the case with the other two mock drafts, this one was made using the NFL Mock Draft Database simulator. This Draft also featured a triad of trades.
No. 11: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Do I think this will happen? No. There is a chance that the Vikings could trade up for a QB as the rumors suggest, and the quarterback in question could be Daniels. But I don’t believe he’ll fall to the 11th pick. If he does, the Vikings should sprint to the podium with his name. The LSU alum is a very good prospect with immense running skills and a beautiful deep pass, but he’s not ready. He does take off running rather quickly and needs to read the plays better. That’s the beauty of learning from a QB like Cousins, who can play a role like Alex Smith did for Patrick Mahomes in 2017.
No. 42: T’Vondre Sweat, DL, Texas
Sweat was part of one of the best interior defensive lines of the last few years, pairing beautifully with Byron Murphy. Sweat is capable of taking over a game, showing his rare size and power against both run and pass. He can straight-up bully blockers with his bull rush or move around them with a good variety of pass-rush moves. Sweat would be a huge addition to this defense, solidifying the run defense and helping go after the QB.
No. 108: Marshawn Kneeland, EDGE, Western Michigan
Is very easy to fall in love with Kneeland as a prospect. If you ask every coach in the league what is their favorite trait in a player, a good percentage will say high motor. Kneeland may have the biggest of the entire Draft, never giving up on any play. He isn’t very athletic but will make up for it with his motor. He excels against the run (adding him and Bryce Huff could be intriguing) and can set up the bull rush just to put up a countermove on the next snap.
No. 129: Khyree Jackson, CB, Oregon
Jackson is the cornerback that Flores needs. He is the press corner that Brian Flores has utilized everywhere and the Vikings don’t have. Khyree Jackson knows how to utilize every part of his 6’3″ frame to disrupt the route right at the start. He also uses his big wingspan to affect the reception, alongside a good spatial awareness to play in zone coverage. His two main problems are that he gets handsy, which could lead to fouls, and struggles when changing directions.
Complete Draft Class
11th pick: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
42nd pick: T’Vondre Sweat, DL, Texas
108th pick: Marshawn Kneeland, EDGE, Western Michigan
129th pick: Khyree Jackson, CB, Oregon
159th pick: Javion Cohen, iOL, Miami (FL)
165th pick: MarShawn Lloyd, RB, USC
177th pick: Kitan Oladapo, S, Oregon State
212nd pick: Curtis Jacobs, LB, Penn State
230th pick: Joshua Karty, K, Stanford
Trades: Vikings get 159th and 177th picks, Eagles get 155th pick; Vikings get one 4th and two 6th round picks in 2025, Commanders get 178th pick; Vikings get 212th, 230th, and a 2025 5th rounder, Cowboys get 189th pick.
As I said, Daniels is unlikely to be available at 11, but, with Cousins on the roster, the team can select a QB later on. A very wise ex-GM told me that you take the best available player on your board, not the position you need the most. If the best available plays a position you need it’s the perfect world and you celebrate like crazy. There are QB prospects that could be an option later on, like Michael Penix and Bo Nix in the second round or Jordan Travis in Day 3.
This ends our discussion on possible outcomes for the next two months. The only thing remaining now is waiting to see how wrong I was on my mocks.
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