NFC Championship Game Preview–Defense Rules

Photo Courtesy: Andy Kenutis

When not writing for puplePTSD.com, I cover the NFL for TheSportsPost.com, and around midseason I wrote that the 6-2 Minnesota Vikings and the 7-1 Philadelphia Eagles were on a collision course. I don’t claim to be Nostradamus (because I also said the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were coming out of the NFC South this season, and every team but them did) or even “Nostracommonus,” since these two teams had the best records in the NFC at the time. It was an educated guess and a bit of wishful thinking, and now that collision has arrived in the NFC Championship game to be contested on Sunday evening at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia.

“No I wasn’t aware of a flow chart,” Vikings quarterback Case Keenum said when asked about a flow chart that charts how he and Eagles quarterback Nick Foles got to this game. “But I know this is what all of you guys predicted back in the day, a Foles vs. Keenum NFC Championship. So good job to all of you guys who predicted that.”

(Thanks, Case, kind of.)

The game will feature two of the best defenses in the league (what is that old adage about “defense wins championships?”), so something has to give. The Vikings finished the regular season as No. 1 in both yards allowed (275.9 yards per game) and points given up (15.8 points per game), while the Eagles were No. 4 in both categories—306.5 ypg. and 18.4 ppg. This past weekend, for what it’s worth, the Eagles defense performed better their average numbers, giving up 281 yards and just 10 points to the Atlanta Falcons. The Vikings, defense, of course, went in the other direction, giving up 358 yards and 24 points to the New Orleans Saints.

“Overall, they’re solid,” Keenum said of the Eagles defense. “All 11 guys they line up and even the guys that they bring in to play are all solid players. Hardly ever out of position, always in position to make plays. Up front, I think a really talented group. They disrupt the run and the pass really well. We have our work cut out for us getting the ball out and running the ball. Other than that, I can sit up here and talk about them all day. You look at their stats, they speak for themselves. They’re a good defense.”

Some of the difference in performances can be attributed to the competition, as the Vikings were facing the No. 2 offense in the regular season (391.2 ypg.) and No. 4 scoring offense (28.0 ppg.), while the Falcons offense was ranked 15th in scoring (22.1 ppg.) and eighth in yardage (364.8 ypg.). Plus, the field in Philly was in rough shape, certainly in comparison to the fast track at U.S. Bank Stadium that had the Vikings racing up and down the field in the first and the Saints doing so in the second half (and the Vikings doing it again in the last .25 seconds—just sayin’).

Expect that field to be a factor in this game, certainly since Pro Football Focus came out with this stat on Wednesday: Case Keenum has an 88.7 passer rating outdoors this year, compared to 105.1 in a dome. Wide receiver Adam Thielen, whose precise route running is one of his strengths, knows what they are in for at Lincoln Financial Field—but he will be prepared.

“We play in those conditions a lot in Green Bay, Chicago and other places where there isn’t the best footing,” Thielen said. “So, you just have to make sure that you’re using the right cleats and that you’re going out there during pregame and figuring out what is going to work the best. You don’t really have concerns, you figure it out and see what happens.”

With the defenses basically close to a wash (Vikings have the slight advantage, as we have noted), the game may come down to how the offenses handle the conditions (and those defenses). As it is, Eagles quarterback Nick Foles played all three of his regular season games outdoors (one in New York and two at home) and his quarterback rating was 79.5 (he did put up a 100.1 rating this past Saturday against the Falcons in the playoffs, going 23 of 30 for 246 yards and no touchdowns or interceptions). Foles started slow in the game, but got going in the second quarter, grabbing the lead in the second half and letting his defense finish off Atlanta. The Vikings defense will have to keep Foles off balance for four quarters in this game.

They will also have to shut down the Eagles’ running game, which has been improving of late with new focal point Jay Ajayi, backup bruiser LeGarrette Blount and Corey Clemente, who was the leading receiver on the Eagles last week with five catches on five targets for 31 yards out of the backfield. Foles is not much of a running threat (much like Drew Brees was last Sunday) and he is a true pocket passer who takes a little longer than Brees to get the ball out of his hands (but so does every QB). With the Vikings tough secondary (that will likely see Xavier Rhodes shadowing Alshon Jeffery), it could be tough sledding for Foles waiting for someone to get open.

“Number one, they’ve got an excellent offensive line,” Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer said when asked about the Eagles offense. “They do a great job in the running game, the schemes. The running backs are very hard to tackle. They have a lot of run-pass options and they have excellent receivers. I think Foles has done a good job of understanding where to go with the football and the things that they are trying to do with him.”

The Vikings offense will have to be wary of the Eagles defensive front, which only rushes four, blitzes infrequently but still gets home for sacks. The Vikings offensive line (with Mike Remmers moving to left guard and Rashod Hill at right tackle) had a decent first half against New Orleans, but struggled in the second half and ultimately gave up two sacks and eight quarterback hits. The offense will need even more from this unit in order for the team to move onto the Super Bowl.

And that is the Vikings’ goal, of course, a trip back to Minneapolis to play in one more game in their home stadium. To play one more game this season in front of a crowd—that won’t reach the 120-plus decibels like it did on Sunday, given all the corporate tickets handed out—but a crowd that would hopefully be partisan enough to make things interesting.

That can happen with a win on Sunday against the Eagles, in front of a boisterous crowd that will be every bit as partisan and hungry for a Super Bowl as the Vikings fan base. The Vikings can win this game, but they have to go out and take it with even tougher defense than last week and a mistake-free offense. If last Sunday’s Minneapolis Miracle showed us anything it’s that this team will fight for 60 minutes (it’s not just a cliché if they do it) and do whatever it can to win.

“We never gave up,” Stefon Diggs said about the Saints game.

Don’t expect them to give up on Sunday, either.

Minnesota—20, Philadelphia—13

 

 

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