Micah Tweeten’s Last Second Mock
Micah Tweeten
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I almost let the moment pass me by. Almost let the clock run out on my pick (a la the 2003 Vikings…) But I didn’t. So, here’s my guess for how I think tonight’s round 1 of the 2018 NFL Draft will go, based on some rumors, information I’m seeing, etc. Hopefully, it’ll all be wrong and make for an exciting and chaotic night!
Pick #1 – Cleveland Browns – Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
This pick could go a multitude of ways. Allen would fit the raw but athletic mold for players that Dorsey always liked in the draft while he was the GM for Kansas City. A source that has accurately predicted several Cleveland draft moves (including the Texans trade last year) said not to be surprised if Rosen goes to #1 overall. That would also fit the Dorsey way of smokescreens then doing the unexpected. But I’m going to go where there’s smoke: Baker Mayfield. Mayfield fits the analytics side of the Browns organization and it’s known that Scot McCloughan, a friend of Dorsey and a consultant for the Browns, loves Mayfield. I’m going to guess that Mayfield is the pick for the Browns at number one, and I agree completely as Mayfield is my QB1 in this draft and the only QB that I gave an “Elite” grade to (only 5-8 players get this grade each year).
Pick #2 – New York Giants – Bradley Chubb, EDGE, North Carolina State
Oh man, this pick could go three ways if the Browns go Mayfield. The Giants could grab Darnold, who is known to be the only QB they see worth drafting this early. They could go Saquon Barkley, which would fit with how Shurmur loved Cook and his three-down abilities in last year’s draft. But I think they go with one of the few premier positions in the NFL – an edge rusher who is elite in pass rush.
Pick #3 – New York Jets – Sam Darnold, QB, USC
I don’t know how to feel about this one. There’s been the rumor that Mayfield is the pick if he lasts until here for weeks, but there are conflicting reports as to whether the Jets like Darnold or Rosen more. I personally have Rosen higher on my board, but I believe that Darnold is higher on most NFL teams’ boards because he doesn’t have the concussion issues or concerns about his drive. Either way, New York will get a premier QB in the draft, but I believe Darnold will fit better in New York.
Pick #4 – Buffalo Bills (TRADE WITH CLE) – Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
I’ll be honest: I don’t like this pick. I think Allen is a fourth round quarterback. He has serious issues with footwork and accuracy. He shows arm strength and has the right physical build, but outside of that, I wonder how much he truly will succeed in the NFL, especially if he gets thrown into the starting role right away. He could succeed if he gets a few years to grow a la Aaron Rodgers, but with the pressures on teams today to play their first round picks, I have a hard time seeing him get that time. It’s been rumored though that Buffalo wants to move up and take Allen for quite some time, and they’ve clearly put themselves in a position to do it by moving up in the first round with Cincinnati’s pick. Here they trade both first rounders and both second rounders (and might even need to add a future third or something like that) and move up to Cleveland’s second pick in the first round and select the raw but athletically-gifted Allen.
Pick #5 – Denver Broncos– Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State
I personally don’t think the Broncos want Barkley that much. He’s clearly an exceptional talent, but with Ward, the Broncos are able to replace Talib with an athletic and quality corner that’s tied for first on my board. If Denver moves down, I think they’d try to target Ward unless they drop below Chicago, who I think would take Ward if he’s there.
Pick #6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TRADE WITH IND) – Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
Tampa has been rumored to covet Barkley after parting ways with Doug Martin. This would be a great chance for Tampa to replace Martin with a rare talented back in Barkley. Although they would be passing up on Nelson, Barkley has the ability to be one of the few game changing backs in the NFL and is the #1 overall player on my board. Here they swap picks with Indianapolis to ensure that they grab Barkley in exchange for a mid round pick.
Pick #7 – Indianapolis Colts (TRADE WITH TB) – Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia
The Colts-Smith rumor has been flying for the last week and I think he fits what they need at the linebacker position. He’s athletic, a leader, and a game-changing linebacker who has the explosive pass rush ability to transform the Colts defense.
Pick #8 – Chicago Bears – Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame
I believe the Bears could either go with Nelson or Edmunds here, and neither would surprise me, but Nelson is too good of a talent in my opinion to pass up for an athletic but raw linebacker. He’s an anchor for the line for the next 10-15 years for Chicago if they take him here and he’s about as safe of a pick as they could make.
Pick #9 – San Francisco 49ers – Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech
The 49ers have been linked to three players in the last week and a half – Quenton Nelson, Tremaine Edmunds, and Minkah Fitzpatrick. Nelson went the pick before, but they get to choose between Edmunds and Fitzpatrick and I think they’ll go with the better prospect of the two in Edmunds. He also gives them a linebacker in the style of Anthony Barr to pair with Reuben Foster (or replace depending on the legal situation).
Pick #10 – Arizona Cardinals (TRADE WITH OAK) – Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
The Cardinals jump Miami, who is rumored to like Rosen, and take their QB of the future. Rosen is the #2 QB on my board and is one of the safest QB options in this draft, but I don’t think he has the ceiling of the other QBs. That said, he looks like Matt Ryan, which is good for a top 10 QB in the NFL and well worth the trade up.
Pick #11 – Miami Dolphins – Vita Vea, DT, Washington
Miami gets jumped for the QB they covet, but they end up with a nice consolation prize in Vea. Vea is a raw yet extremely athletic and large defensive tackle with disruptive abilities in all facets of the game. He could set the tone for their line for years to come and replace Suh.
Pick #12 – Cleveland Browns (TRADE WITH BUF) – Harold Landry, EDGE, Boston College
Here, the Browns would still get a quality edge rusher that they covet in Chubb (and I have Landry and Chubb with pretty similar grades on my board). Here, I think they get a steal in the Buffalo trade with the second best edge player, their top QB, and three more picks in the first two rounds (more to come later in this mock…)
Pick #13 – Washington Redskins – Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Alabama
Washington gets the playmaking defensive back that they’ve been rumored to covet all along. They may have to move up because Green Bay is rumored to want to move up and take either Derwin James, Minkah Fitzpatrick, or Denzel Ward. James and Ward are going top 7 in this mock, so Minkah is their only option which will lead to competition for Washington.
Pick #14 – Green Bay Packers – Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa
Like mentioned in Washington’s pick, they are rumored to want James, Ward, or Fitzpatrick. But there are other rumors saying they were deciding between Fitzpatrick or Jackson and Jackson is my CB1 along with Ward, and I think he would make a great addition to the depleted secondary of Green Bay – which is rather unfortunate as a Vikings fan.
Pick #15 – Oakland Raiders (TRADE WITH ARI) – Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA
Oakland moves down with Arizona and grabs a tackle in this mock. I think if they do move down, they’ll target Miller, but it’s entirely possible that they grab McGlinchey instead either by moving down or at the tenth pick. They are rumored to like Fitzpatrick, Edmunds, and Smith but two of the three will go before their pick at 10 and so I think they could move down and grab a tackle before the teams in the 15-25 range do.
Pick #16 – Baltimore Ravens – Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame
This is a pick that I think will either be a WR or an OT. And knowing their tendencies of drafting the trenches in the first two rounds (I can’t remember the actual number, but it’s somewhere in the 65% range for their picks being in the trenches on either side of the ball in the Newsome era), I think they go with the best offensive tackle in this draft. They can pair him up with fellow-Irishman Stanley and have true bookmark tackles on the line.
Pick #17 – Los Angeles Chargers – Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama
The Chargers fall into a good position here with Evans and VanderEsch still on the board. They need a linebacker badly and I believe that they like Evans more than VanderEsch.
Pick #18 – New Orleans Saints (TRADE WITH SEA) – Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
The Saints move up and take their QB of the future in a falling Lamar Jackson. Jackson shows extreme athleticism and may seem like the anti-Brees, but Brees’ completion percentage rose pretty dramatically when he moved from San Diego to New Orleans and I think with a year or two as a backup, they can help Jackson improve his accuracy and be the QB of the future in New Orleans.
Pick #19 – Dallas Cowboys – Leighton VanderEsch, LB, Boise State
If VanderEsch is here, I firmly believe he’s the pick for Dallas. A wide receiver could also be in play, but VanderEsch is an extremely athletic linebacker that compares well to former Vikings LB Chad Greenway and would be able to anchor the linebacker corps that lost Anthony Hitchens this offseason.
Pick #20 – Detroit Lions – Da’Ron Payne, DT, Alabama
Unconventional for a DT for the Lions defense, but with Patricia, I think this is a guy they are looking at targeting. Add in that there are rumors circulating about the Lions front office loving both Payne and Bryan, and I think a DT is certain here, it’s just who and I think Payne is the pick.
Pick #21 – Cincinnati Bengals – Frank Ragnow, C, Arkansas
Everyone has mocked Daniels for months, but a Cincinnati beat writer who has gotten the Bengals pick right 5 of the last 6 years has pegged Ragnow as the pick for the Bengals. Add in the hype he’s gotten recently and the rumors that other teams in the 20-25 range are interested, and he’ll be a hot commodity come tonight’s draft.
Pick #22 – Cleveland Browns (TRADE WITH BUF) – Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville
Cleveland snags another need in their picks from the Buffalo trade in Alexander. He’s my #3 CB on my board and he fits what the Browns need in a speedy and athletic slot corner. I wouldn’t be surprised if Alexander gets his name called even earlier, but I think this is the sweet spot for where he could go.
Pick #23 – New England Patriots – Connor Williams, OT, Texas
Some feel Williams is a guard, but I think he has the potential to play tackle in the NFL and so the Patriots grab Williams (with McGlinchey and Miller both gone) to replace Solder at LT.
Pick #24 – Carolina Panthers – Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU
Panthers are supposedly in the market for a route running wide receiver and they grab the best receiver in this draft in Courtland Sutton.
Pick #25 – Tennessee Titans – Marcus Davenport, EDGE, UTSA
I think Tennessee might go with Sam Hubbard of Ohio State instead, but they are definitely in the market for an edge rusher with being tied to Davenport, Hubbard, and Landry. Davenport is raw but athletic and has high-end potential to rush the passer in the NFL with some work.
Pick #26 – Atlanta Falcons – Taven Bryan, DT, Florida
This pick has been one of the picks that has been predicted for a while. Bryan is an athletic, pass rushing DT that Atlanta has been rumored to love and needs to add to their defense. This pick makes too much sense if he’s still there at this point.
Pick #27 – Seattle Seahawks (TRADE WITH NO) – James Daniels, iOL, Iowa
Seattle grabs some protection for Russell Wilson and fits their stereotypical lineman in an athleticism sense. He’s a bit smaller than some of the linemen they’ve grabbed recently, but I think he fits what they are looking for on the line.
Pick #28 – Pittsburgh Steelers – Justin Reid, S, Stanford
Every year, the Steelers are mocked a defensive back, and almost every year they don’t take one. But this year, I believe they snag Reid, who has quickly caught some late first round hype.
Pick #29 – Jacksonville Jaguars – Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina
Jacksonville is rumored to be enamored with Hurst, although they are trying to keep that quiet. He would provide the athletic receiving option, while he’s also a good blocker. He would help make up for the loss of several receiving options in free agency as well.
Pick #30 – Cleveland Browns (TRADE WITH MIN) – Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
With an excess of picks in day 2 thanks to the Buffalo trade, Cleveland pairs up the #33 pick and a fourth rounder to move up and grab what some see as the best receiver in this class. He provides a different play style as Coleman and Gordon in more of a technician role. He compares favorably to Stefon Diggs and Michael Crabtree, and while he may never fully be able to handle the WR1 role, he would make for a deadly compliment to the Cleveland offense.
Pick #31 – Chicago Bears (TRADE WITH NE)- Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado
New England, in traditional Patriots fashion, trades out of the first with Chicago who moves up and grabs a CB, which they need badly (and why they like Ward so much). Oliver isn’t worth a first round pick in my opinion, but with Hughes off the field issues, might be the best corner remaining. It also lands them a fifth year option with Oliver.
Pick #32 – Philadelphia Eagles – Derrius Guice, RB, LSU
I know Guice has gotten some bad rep in the media recently and rumors are there are some concerns off the field with Guice. But he’s the running back that many were rumored to like in the mid to late first round and a guy that Philly isn’t expecting to be here still at the end of the first. He provides a true RB1 for Philadelphia’s offense that will get Wentz back for next year and helps them become multi-dimensional on offense. I could also see a LB go here if one of the 4 main LBs happen to fall this far.