Green Bay’s Future Salary Cap is a Mess

Aaron Rodgers and Adam Thielen
Dec 23, 2019; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) talks with Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen (19) following a game at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

The Green Bay Packers better hope they turn their 2022 season into a Super Bowl. If they don’t, it’ll be increasingly challenging to remain as competitive as they have been. Put simply, their upcoming salary cap situations look like they’ll be really challenging to navigate.

I first came across this idea while reading a piece from Paul Bretl, one of the foremost Packers writers out there. He points out that next year, the Packers have nearly $126 million committed to only six players. In other words, more than 50% of the team’s budget is tied up in just over 11% of a team’s 53-man roster. Take a peak at some of the numbers below:

PlayersCap Hit (2023)
Aaron Rodgers$31,623,570
David Bakhtiari$29,065,514
Kenny Clark$23,973,000
Aaron Jones$20,013,000
Preston Smith$13,040,000
De’Vondre Campbell$8,250,000
Info courtesy of Over the Cap

Teams regularly face difficult decisions with their salary cap. In that sense, the Green Bay Packers management isn’t navigating something that’s altogether unprecedented. Even still, the financial demands of these half of a dozen players are huge, especially since there isn’t an easy cut route for any of them. The team could clear more than $10 million by moving on from Jones, but that’s a decision that would involve taking on nearly $10 million in dead money.

Plus, they’ve got legit talent that needs to be brought back, as Bretl points out. Jaire Alexander, Rashan Gary, and Elgton Jenkins will all be looking to get paid. One wonders if the Packers try to pull off a Davante Adams move. Rather than pay top dollar, franchise tag one of them and then ship them out of town. It may be the team’s only choice.

All of this is good news for the Vikings. As we’ve discussed, Minnesota is moving forward with a two-year plan. Their hope is to compete for a Super Bowl in 2022 and 2023. If that fails, then it’ll likely be a full-scale tear down and rebuild starting in 2024, a time when they have an unusually high amount of cap flexibility.

The Green Bay Packers have opted for a different approach. Aaron Rodgers is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, so they obviously want to compete in the immediate. Doing so will be complicated because of their cap crunch. The Packers will find themselves in a tricky spot if even one of two of their marquee players underperform. Being so top-heavy means they’ll need to clear out the middle class of their roster, instead partnering their high-priced vets with players on rookie deals. In other words, having a high-end player play poorly means likely not having the depth for a strong replacement.

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