The Forum and The Funky: Always Being Let Down & Other Vikings Meanderings
K. Joudry
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Over at Purple Pain Forums, there is a group of passionate Vikings fans who regularly participate in lively debates and conversations about the Minnesota Vikings. The “Forum Friday” piece — which is, uh, coming out on Saturday this week — on PurplePTSD captures a small portion of that passion.
The proprietor, affectionately known as Funkytown, relayed the word about a recent post from tfundermann: “Always Gonna Give You Up, Always Gonna Let You Down.” Instead of a Rick Astley style of commitment, the Vikings often fail to avoid disappointing their supporters. The post on the forums focuses on an advanced metric referred to as EPA to understand what’s going on with the Vikings.
Forum Friday Saturday: October 7th, 2023
The post begins with the author’s general outlook: “The defense played really well when it needed to on Sunday, the offense looked its worst yet, and that is with us not even mentioning weeks 2 and 3. On that fun note, welcome to our first quarter breakdown and look ahead.”
Before venturing too far into the argument, there’s a word about how to understand an advanced metric: “As the eye test tells you, there is some good and some bad with this team. There are things that give us hope for a turnaround, while others would tell you this is going to be a very long disappointing season. As someone mentioned in the last thread, the key to EPA and even Success Rate data is knowing they are more overall efficiency metrics, and not an end all be all to say if a single player is good or not. That being said, if the team is seeing a big spike in these metrics when targeting or running through this player, that means they are probably adding something of benefit to the team.”
Predictably, Justin Jefferson looks pretty good when it comes to EPA: “JJ is still leading the pack, and it isn’t even close. When this offense targets JJ, good things happen (shocking I know!). JJ leads the team with 22.19 in total EPA and a 0.472 EPA/Play. That total EPA is 9th overall for the entire league right now, and his EPA/Play is 16th for all players with at least 20 plays.”
Later on, there is some consideration of Alexander Mattison as well as some of the 1st quarter foibles. The turnovers, of course, are a major issue, and yet the issues go beyond just giving the ball away (as consequential as those are). Generally speaking, the Vikings need to be far more potent to begin the game. Playing with a lead against Patrick Mahomes will be much easier than needing to come back.
At the very end, there’s a thought about the enigma that is the Minnesota Vikings:
The more and more I dig through these metrics and watch the games, the more confused I am about what this team is. There are times the offense is hitting on all cylinders and they look like nothing can stand in their way. Then other times they go what feels like an eternity without getting a single 1st down. Same could be said about the defense, in it has some really really good moments and stretches, and then some times where they look like toddlers playing against grown-ups. The turnovers, in-particular on the goal line, have played a big part in the losses. After all, if you take away the 4 goal line turnovers and make them all touchdowns, this Vikings offense moves from 16th in PPG (22.5) to tied for 5th with 29.5 PPG. We can’t go back and change history like that, but it shows this offense can compete with anyone if they show up and stay focused. These next 4 games are a big test with 2 Super Bowl favorites and 2 division games.
Readers interested in reading more of the analysis can do so at Purple Pain Forums. The misguided souls who still have an affinity for social media can even find them on Twitter.
Tomorrow, Minnesota takes on Kansas City inside U.S. Bank Stadium. The game begins at 3:25 CDT.
K. Joudry is the Senior Editor for Vikings Territory and PurplePTSD. He has been covering the Vikings full time since the summer of 2021. He can be found on Twitter and as a co-host for Notes from the North, a humble Vikings podcast.