A Breakdown of What Makes a Top Dynasty Tight End Talent

Nov 12, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson (87) celebrates his touchdown against the New Orleans Saints in the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

During the draft season, rookie tight ends are the first prospects to be evaluated.

Since the most important traits for a tight end are their measurables, film, and statistics, they are easier to project to the NFL without any recorded workouts. This the case since many of these factors are available before the NFL Combine. With rookie tight-end profiles still to come, this is a good jumping-off point.

Make sure you follow Scott from the Undroppables. His “Anatomy of a Top-8 Dynasty Tight End” series inspired me to create this article to highlight which rookies to target later in my fantasy football rookie drafts. When coming up with my top-20 method, I needed a way to sort the mid to late incoming rookie tight ends whom I love to evaluate. To accomplish this, I added advanced statistics from my 2024 NFL Draft Rookie Bible, which I already use for rookie scouting, and my criteria is based on a larger sample size. Statistics are recorded from Pro Football Focus. Advanced statistics not found there were calculated by me.

In this article, I will explain the key stats and characteristics scouts should look for when evaluating future starting NFL tight ends. The control group for my analysis was determined using Keep, Trade, Cut; an online tool for dynasty fantasy football managers to get an updated consensus rank for a position. As such, I will use the term “dynasty” throughout this article. A top dynasty tight end has good receiving ability, potential to finish among the best at his position, and job security – all of which are important criteria for what we’re examining in this series.

Top-20 Dynasty Tight Ends

Dynasty Tight End
Nov 27, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson (87) celebrates his touchdown against the Chicago Bears in the fourth quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Here are the top-20 dynasty tight ends from this past season:

Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, T.J. Hockenson, Dalton Kincaid, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, David Njoku, George Kittle, Travis Kelce, Jake Ferguson, Cole Kmet, Isaiah Likely, Michael Mayer, Evan Engram, Luke Musgrave, Pat Freiermuth, Dallas Goedert, Dalton Schultz, Tucker Kraft, Cade Otton.

Using dynasty fantasy football rankings is a great way to rank a tight end for the present and future.

Drafted Day One or Day Two 

Missing this criteria is fatal. The top-20 dynasty tight ends are drafted within the first four rounds. At the time of this article, George Kittle is the only top-20 dynasty tight end not drafted in the first four rounds.

Out of the top-20 dynasty tight ends, 95% were drafted in the fourth round or earlier.

Early Declare

It is important, but not necessary, for tight ends to declare early for the NFL Draft. It is rare for a young college tight end to experience success and receive positive feedback about their capital in the NFL draft. Those who do, however, demonstrate that they possess exceptional physical talent and have the potential to become a star in the league.

In an article entitled “Dynasty Fantasy Football: Should You Avoid Non-Early Declare Tight Ends?” Rich Hribar, from Sharp Football Analysis, highlights the fact that between 2010 and 2020, early declare tight ends achieved a top-24 finish in their position 24% of the time. On the other hand, non-early-declared tight ends managed a top-24 finish only 14% of the time. This statistic reinforces that declaring early is a positive aspect of a player’s resume, but declaring late is not necessarily bad.

Of the top-20 dynasty tight ends, 50% still had NCAA eligibility.

Top-20 Tight End Physical Testing

Jan 14, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta (87) runs after a catch during the first half of a 2024 NFC wild card game against the Los Angeles Rams at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

Proximity to 6’4″ / 245 Pounds

There’s a fine line for a successful height and weight for NFL tight ends. If they are too short or are light in weight, they are likely a liability as a blocker. The rookies would have to have a role as the team’s slot receiver or as a half-back. Their chances of getting snaps drop off a cliff if you don’t have draft capital worth being featured for. Very tall or heavy players naturally have stiffer hips, which will impact their ability to run routes effectively. 

Out of the top 20 dynasty tight ends, only two (LaPorta, Engram) are below 6’4″; Only three are above 6’5″ (Pitts, Kmet, Musgrave); Only Evan Engram (234) is under 240 pounds; Only Cole Kmet (262) is over 260 pounds. 

Out of the top-20 dynasty tight ends, 75% are between 6’4 “-6’5”. 

Regarding the weight of top-20 dynasty tight ends, 80% were 240-260 pounds.

SpeedScore Above 102

SpeedScore is a way to measure how big something is and how fast. Bill Barnwell first wrote about SpeedScore in Pro Football Prospectus. The formula is (weight*200) / (40-time^4). Part of projecting tight ends to the NFL is about giving context to how big and fast these prospects are. 

To give perspective, out of the control group, the top five in SpeedScore are Kyle Pitts (126.09), Evan Engram (122.62), George Kittle (118.35), Trey McBride (113.79), and Travis Kelce (112.92). It is worth noting that Brock Bowers (Projected 6’4″, 240 pounds, 4.48 forty) would be third with a projected 119.16 SpeedScore.

Only two of the 20 prospects from the control group recorded a SpeedScore below 100. Those were Jake Ferguson (93.41) and Dalton Schultz (95.86). 

Out of the top-20 dynasty tight ends, 90% had a SpeedScore above 102.

Body Mass Index in the 29-31 Range

Body Mass Index, or BMI, is not a vital metric for tight ends, but it does help give context to their potential role in the NFL. Simply put, if you’re not stout enough to make an impact as a blocker, you won’t be in-line as a blocker. If a tight end is too stout and a big asset as a blocking contributor, this could also hurt their receiving potential. If a tight end does not receive day one or day two draft capital, their chances of seeing playing time are slim unless they can help as a blocker.

NFL teams won’t use a young, day-three drafted tight end primarily as a slot receiver, but they might consider them as an in-line number-two tight end. If the prospect has a low BMI and was picked on day three of the draft, they are less likely to be seen as a prospect to give extended opportunities.

The recommended BMI for tight ends is between 29 to 31. Only Kyle Pitts (28.31) and Dalton Schultz (28.19) are below 29 BMI. Dallas Goedert (31.16) is the only top-20 dynasty tight end above 31 BMI. 

Out of the top-20 dynasty tight ends, 85% had a BMI of 29-31.

3-Cone Drill Below 7.10

A 3-cone drill evaluates how fast a player can change direction while accelerating. An elite 3-cone drill time is sub-7 seconds.

 LaPorta (6.91), Engram (6.92), and Njoku (6.97) were the only tight ends under seven seconds. Kmet (7.44), Andrews (7.34), Likely (7.33), and Mayer (7.26) clustered their times together on the long end.

Out of the 16 tight ends who participated in the 3-cone drill, 69% completed it in under 7.10 seconds.

Vertical Jump Above 31

Having a high vertical highlights your ability in jump-ball situations. Of the 17 tight ends that recorded a vertical, 100% jumped higher than 31 inches.

Broad Jump Farther than 9’10”

The broad jump is a measure of explosiveness but also lower body strength. Of the 17 tight ends who recorded a broad jump, 88% jumped at least 9’10”. 

Top-20 Tight End Statistics

NFL: New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings
Nov 24, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson (87) makes a catch for a touchdown against the New England Patriots during the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Pro Football Focus Receiving Grade Above 73

A player’s performance at the catch point can be evaluated using PFF’s receiving grades, though no grading system is perfect. Out of the top-20 dynasty tight ends, 80% had a PFF receiving grade above 73 the year they declared for the draft.

Yards After The Catch Above 4.5

Yards after the catch, or YAC, is a metric that measures a tight end’s effectiveness as a ball carrier. It provides insight into the player’s role in college and their potential role in the NFL. A tight end with a high YAC may be more likely to be utilized as a receiver or out of the backfield at the professional level.

Njoku (11.2), far and away, leads the group. It is worth noting that Brock Bowers (8.7) will be second when he is drafted. Out of the top-20 dynasty tight ends, 90% had a YAC of 4.5 or higher.

Yards Per Route Run Above 2.1

Yards per route run, also known as Y/RR, provides information on how efficient a tight end is at gaining yards while running a route. In the case of wide receivers, Y/RR helps to identify players who excel at creating separation from defenders, and it serves the same purpose for tight ends.

Pitts (3.26), Goedert (3), and Likely (2.99) lead by a wide margin. Schultz (.82), Otton (1.06), and Kittle (1.42) were the only tight ends below 1.5 Y/RR. Out of the top-20 dynasty tight ends, 75% had Y/RR above 2.1.

Yards Per Team Pass Attempt Above 1.5

Yards per team pass attempt, also known as YPTPA, provides insight into the number of yards gained by a tight end and indicates how significant he was to his team’s passing game. If a tight end is skilled enough to be the primary target in his team’s passing strategy, he is likely to perform well at a higher level.

For YPTPA, 2+ would be elite. McBride (2.83), Likely (2.64), Goedert (2.4), Mayer (2.39), and Andrews (2.2) all had a YPTPA above 2. Kincaid (1.99) was close. It’s worth noting Brock Bowers makes the elite YPTPA cutoff at exactly 2.0. Out of the top-20 dynasty tight ends, 65% had a YPTPA above 1.5. 

Career Yards Per Reception Above 11

Yards per reception, or Y/REC, is a helpful metric for evaluating a tight end’s efficiency. Examining their career provides a broader context beyond a single standout year or their senior year when they might be more physically developed.

Njoku (16.6), Goedert (15.9), Andrews (15.8), and Likely (15.4) were the only ones above 15. Schultz (9.9) is the lone tight end under 11 career yards per reception. Of the top-20 dynasty tight ends, 95% had career yards per reception above 11. 

Career Touchdowns Above 9

Believe it or not, the best dynasty tight ends all knew how to score in college. To put this one simply, playmakers make plays. 

Isaiah Likely (27) and Mark Andrews (22) are the only tight ends from the group with more than 20 touchdowns. Kmet (6), LaPorta (5), Schultz (5), and Musgrave (2) had less than nine touchdowns. It is worth noting that Brock Bowers has 26 career touchdowns. Of the top-20 dynasty tight ends, 85% had at least nine career touchdowns in college. 

Top-20 Tight End Advanced Statistics

Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (89) collects a pass in the end zone as Cincinnati Bengals cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt (29) defends in the second quarter of a Week 2 NFL football game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals Sunday, Sept. 17, 2023, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati.

Yards Dominator Percentage Above 15%

Y/DOM% is a formula that calculates the number of passing yards attributed to a player, providing context on how a tight end is performing in comparison to their teammates.

An elite top-10 dynasty tight end typically will have a Y/DOM% above 20%. McBride (37.3) leads by a staggering amount, followed by Engram (33.6), LaPorta (31.9), Goedert (30.1), and Mayer (30) as the only tight ends over Isaiah Likely (26.4). 

Out of the top-20 dynasty tight ends, 80% had Y/DOM% above 15%. Only 50% had a Y/DOM% above 20%.

Reception Dominator Percentage Above 15%

Reception Dominator Percentages, abbreviated as REC/DOM%, are a statistical measure that reveals a tight end’s ability to receive passes throughout the season consistently. A tight end with a high REC/DOM% is an important asset for a team, as it implies that he is a key target for check-down passes. This highlights the player’s ability to get open quickly and reliably.

There’s a clear gap between scoring elite or not. 50% of the control group had 20% or more. The other 50% had 17% or less- quite a difference. McBride (38.2), Mayer (31.7), and LaPorta (30.2) clean up here as the only tight ends above Goedert (26.9). Of the top-20 dynasty tight ends, 70% had a REC/DOM% above 15%.

Full Criteria for Top-20 Dynasty Tight Ends

  • 95% drafted round four or earlier;
  • 50% still had NCAA eligibility;
  • 75% were between 6’4″ and 6’5″;
  • 80% were 240-260 pounds;
  • 90% had a SpeedScore above 102;
  • 85% had a BMI between 29 and 31;
  • 80% had a PFF receiving grade above 73 the year they declared;
  • 90% had a YAC above 4.5;
  • 75% had a Y/RR above 2.1;
  • 65% had a YPTPA above 1.5;
  • 95% had a career Y/REC above 11;
  • 85% had at least nine career touchdowns;
  • 80% had a Y/DOM% above 15%;
  • 70% had a REC/DOM% above 15%.

Final Thoughts

Feb 11, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle (85) makes a catch against the Kansas City Chiefs during the fourth quarter of Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The top-20 dynasty tight ends exhibit some interesting trends that are worth noting. The percentage of a certain trait is a reflection of its importance. For a prospect to be considered as a top-20 dynasty tight end, they must meet specific criteria such as draft capital, SpeedScore, yards after catch (YAC), and career yards per reception (Y/REC). Failure to meet these criteria would make them a significant outlier.

On the other hand, not declaring early, having height outside of 6′ “4 and 6’5”, a low Y/RR and REC/DOM% might not spell doom, but it certainly gives extra context to the player.

Out of this 2024 NFL draft class, it is clear that there is a new elite tight end in Brock Bowers. Regardless of landing spot, Bowers will slot in as a top-3 dynasty tight end.

Isaiah Likely scores very well across the top of multiple categories, as do Trey McBride and Sam LaPorta. In retrospect, their status as a top-20 dynasty tight end should have been more obvious.

Dalton Schultz, Cade Otton, Luke Musgrave, and, surprisingly, Pat Freiermuth appear near the bottom of many categories. For Schultz, Otton, and Musgrave, this represents their shaky ground as top-20 dynasty tight ends. For Freiermuth, this raises some eyebrows.

Overall, evaluating tight ends for the NFL draft requires a thorough understanding of their physical traits, statistics, and film. While there are no guarantees for success, the top-20 dynasty tight ends have shown a consistent pattern. By using these criteria as a guide, scouts and fantasy football players alike can identify the most promising tight ends and make informed decisions on their future potential.


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