Flippin’ the Script : Week 1 Edition
Eddiemiles
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Flippin’ The Script
Wow. In case you forgot how deep your love for football truly was, last weekend’s action certainly provided us with wall to wall drama and the utter excitement at the realization of having 4+ months of weekends full of gridiron action, about to slap us in our football-obsessed faces! Welcome to Flippin’ The Script – a weekly fantasy football article intent on briefly summarizing the previous weeks high/low points, discussing certain players on the rise/fall along with numerous free agent recommendations and lastly I’ll analyze the NFL’s weekly schedule and Vegas’ betting lines & provide a few insightful trends/tips to help us all “beat the book” this football season. Just a wild guess here – but I’m betting we ALL love watching football (seems unlikely you’d be reading this article unless that was true.) The only thing better than spending an entire Sunday engulfed into your television watching football, is spending a full Sunday watching the entire NFL schedule unfold while simultaneously dominating your fantasy football league(s) and earning betting profits from wagering on the weekend’s biggest games you already know & love – now, what on earth sounds better than that?
WEEK 1 RECAP
There never is, never has been and never will be a dull week in the NFL. For those of you who were “lucky” enough to own the 1st pick in your fantasy leagues this year (or ingenious enough to “keep” David Johnson) – Week 1 will go down as a travesty, one that won’t be easily overcome. That being said, do not give up hope and certainly don’t assume your team is doomed. Every year countless players at each position emerge from what seems like thin air, or the abyss or sometimes even from bagging groceries at the store. Pay close attention each week to who is gaining opportunities – as opposed to only looking at general stats. The most noteworthy observation of Week 1 as a whole – where the HELL did the offense go? Every season you hear someone tell you that defenses will always start faster/stronger as a unit, compared to most offenses that typically require a few weeks to ‘gel’ and to feel-out what weapons they have at their disposal for the new season. It turns out this “theory” isn’t as true as it seems to be, check the graph to get a feel for how Week 1 scoring generally compares to season long scoring – especially since 2011, the start of the modern passing revolution. Can this be explained or shall we chalk it up as an anomaly? If Week 1 (20.1 PPG) has anything to say about the rest of the season, we best get excited
about loads of low-scoring defensive dominating games, just not very close margins of victory is all. Teams couldn’t move the ball in Week 1, either on the ground or through the air – averaging a meager 5.07 yds per play (approximately what both the Vikings & Browns averaged all last season). QB play was especially uninspiring, with a Week 1 total of 38 TD passes, every other Week 1 since 2011 has produced at least 48 TD passes. While a struggle at the QB position was expected of some, ahemm – Scott Tolzien, Tom Savage & Josh McCown (trio combined for 0 TD’s 4 INT’s & 2 lost starting jobs). However, all blame can’t be thrust upon that underachieving trio. Anyone witness the Bengals get shut-out at home to the lowly Baltimore team? Andy Dalton bestowed his first ever 0-TD, 4-INT game of his career upon us. Eli Manning reassured the viewing public that he’ll never be worth the price of admission and to make other plans on Monday night during Week 2 (save yourself the viewing horror of the Lions & Giants on primetime TV). Easily the most unbelievable stat that occurred, of all 33 players who attempted a pass during Week 1, the one & only Tom Brady ended with the worst completion percentage. The single most obvious thing missing (from a fantasy football mind) from the NFL’s opening week was BIG performances, multiple-touchdown efforts and electrifying performances that swing entire fantasy destinies! Not a single RB on Sunday rushed
for more than a single touchdown. In fact, the only QB to toss over 2 TD’s was Stafford – and he only threw his final two late into the 4th quarter. Stafford was the only player on Sunday to reach 20 fantasy points in non-PPR leagues, a mere (7) surpassed the 20-point benchmark in the entire Week 1 slate. That surprising number is tied for the lowest since the mid-1970’s (see graph above).
RISERS
Tarik Cohen (RB – Chicago Bears) : The 2017 RB class is jam-packed with studs (Fournette, McCaffery, Cook, Hunt…) and while Cohen surely had some potential, he was supposed to buried behind early round pick Jordan Howard and plays for a sub-par offense in Chicago. Yet the rookie looked dynamic in Week 1, racking up 113-yards with his 13 touches. Most impressive were his 12 targets and undeniable comfort with new Bears QB Glennon. Cohen should be added in all 12 team leagues and offers upside as a weekly flex play, especially in PPR formats.
Dalvin Cook (RB – Minnesota Vikings) : Of all the rookie RB’s, Cook probably had the highest expectations to start the season, given his role and assured status as RB1. He did not unimpressed, dashing through holes with patience and power. He displayed reliable hands and had the look of a seasoned veteran – impressive given the lofty shoes he was asked to fill. Cook was on the field for 78% of offensive snaps. He gashed the Saints defense for 122 yards on 22 carries and hauled in 3 receptions in the process. Treat the rookie as an upside RB2 for now, knowing he can break out at any given time.
Kenny Golladay (WR – Detroit Lions) : After a huge start to the preseason, Golladay had Lions fans excited at the thought of having a tall receiver again (no one since Calvin Johnson retired). Golladay slipped in fantasy drafts, going undrafted in a large number of drafts. While his final numbers were great from a fantasy perspective (69 yards & 2 TD’s), his usage numbers suggest he’s unlikely to match this level of production week in and week out (on field for only 67% of passing plays). Golladay should be owned in most leagues in case his role gets expanded, but for now he’s seen as a boom/bust WR3 option.
Amari Cooper (WR – Oakland Raiders) : While expectations are sky-high for the 3rd year Oakland wideout, Cooper did little do disappoint in Week 1. Handling 12 targets, he turned them into 62 yards and 1 TD. More importantly was his usage near the end zone, Cooper was targeted twice in the end zone and twice more within 5 yards of the end zone, quite the improvement off the miniscule 11 targets within the 5-yard line all last season. Treat Cooper as a mid to back-end WR1 for the foreseeable future.
Austin Hooper (TE – Atlanta Falcons) : Helping lead the explosive Atlanta offense to the Super Bowl last season, Hooper was a hot commodity late in drafts this fall. He certainly didn’t disappoint in Week 1, totaling 128 yards and 1 TD. Granted, majority of his production came on his 88-yard TD reception where he was left wide open in the middle of the field. Atlanta figures to feature Hooper more in their coming game plans, hopefully increasing his target share in the process. His athletic ability and natural route-running skills leave mouthwatering potential if Matt Ryan and him can truly get in sync with each other. Even now, he’s a back end TE1 with room to grow into the upper echelon of the position.
FALLERS
Hunter Henry (TE – Los Angeles Chargers) : The 2nd year TE entered this season with huge expectations after a record breaking rookie season. However, Henry was not only totally shut down in Week 1, not recording a catch – he didn’t even receive a target on Monday night. While some of that can be attributed to the league’s best defense, he only saw 23 snaps and seemed to clearly be behind all-time great Antonio Gates on the depth chart. High hopes are still reasonable once facing average NFL defenses, but Henry’s outlook has taken a hit. He remains a borderline TE1 and provides a decent amount of risk given nights like Week 1 could occur any week.
Adrian Peterson (RB – New Orleans Saints) : AP got the ‘start’ on Monday night against his former employer, the Minnesota Vikings. He failed to produce anything significant in the early going, earning him a spot of the bench for the majority of the 2nd half. We know there are many mouths to feed in this high-octane Saints offense, and Drew Brees is the league’s best at spreading the love across the board. Between New Orleans veteran Mark Ingram (11 touches, 71 yards) and rookie RB Alvin Kamara (team high in snaps, carries & targets), finding an ideal role for AP looks like it’ll be a massive test for the defensively challenged Saints. Peterson looks to be a desperation flex option in this offense and likely needs to earn the trust of both coach Sean Payton and veteran QB Brees.
Josh Doctson (WR – Washington Redskins) : After trading away most of last year’s targets (Pierre Garcon, Desean Jackson) the thought was that former 1st round draft pick Doctson would finally be given the chance to live up to his draft potential. After Week 1 that notion seems a bit farfetched. Doctson didn’t have a catch, which is near impossible, so I’ve heard, when you don’t receive a single target. Doctson only ran 17 routes last Sunday and that seems like a mistake, given Kirk Cousins struggled mightily to find open receivers all day long. Washington’s lack of success in the passing game should allow for Doctson’s role to expand in the coming weeks. He currently belongs on your bench but I’d rethink plans of dropping the talented 1st rounder as he may develop into a stud for Cousins yet this season.
Eddie Lacy (RB – Seattle Seahawks) : Entering a new year with a new team, there was plenty of reason to be optimistic on Lacy for 2017. Seattle has lacked an all-around RB for a few years now, despite being one of the top teams in the NFC in that span. Lacy is owned in exactly 100% of leagues before Week 1, that figures to drop significantly after his pathetic, uninspiring debut in Seattle. He was given 5 touches in a very competitive game against his former employer (Green Bay), which he turned into a mere 3 yards. It’d be one thing if he could shake it off and look to bounce back next week, but that may not be an option as Chris Carson looked every bit as elusive as Lacy wasn’t – Carson turned his 6 carries into 39 yards. Plus, longtime Seattle RB Thomas Rawls is due back this week. It’s uncertain how the carries will be divvied up, but after this Week 1 effort – don’t expect Lacy’s opportunities to grow. He’s a fine candidate to drop in 12 team leagues, especially if you can add C.Carson, or better yet T.Cohen.
Carson Palmer (QB – Arizona Cardinals) : Hailed as a prime bounce-back candidate for the 2017 season, Palmer showed no signs of this notion coming to fruition in Week 1. Facing a mediocre at best Detroit defense, he was picked off 3 times, including the game-sealing pick six late in the 4th quarter. Having the all-around best RB in the league behind him certainly made Palmer’s job infinitely easier, the Cardinals lost David Johnson’s services for 2-3 months last weekend. This will put even more pressure on Palmer to lead this offense, which has been a struggle even with defenses keying in on the versatile RB – it’s scary to think of Palmer trying to pass his team to victory with defenses putting more focus on their aerial attack. Downgrade the veteran QB to a risky matchup play QB2.
BEATING THE BOOK
Welcome to the newest segment of my blog, beating the book. Sports betting has been growing in popularity over the past decade and with the hundreds of legal online venues to place your wagers – why not? Don’t we all want to be inches from the TV screen shouting for the Bills to run the clock out instead of kicking a last second field goal that would put the game OVER the O/U line? If so, then you’ll love this portion of my weekly Flippin’ the Odds – because that’s what I’m here to do; digest Vegas’ lines and read between the lines to find opportunities and margins for us to take full advantage of. As any worthy advice column does, I’ll keep track of my W-L record each week as well as season long. You’ll read about so many different methods when it comes to how to bet and who to back, but this season I plan on keeping my methologies simple. I’ll typically apply knowledge gained from intently watching each game, each week combined with certain relevant betting trends in order to evaluate each and every spread from an analytical standpoint.
***Recap my Week 1 picks below.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Texans (+6) @ Bengals : Both teams are coming off embarrassing losses in Week 1. I expect both teams to play better and the Texans offer good value here, however, this Bengals team has always proven to bounce back after defeat under Marvin Lewis, especially after a home loss (haven’t lost consecutive home games in over 4 seasons). Back the Bengals. Bengals 24-13
SUNDAY GAMES
Early Games (1pm EST)
Titans (-2) @ Jaguars : Solid showing by Jacksonville’s defense last week, this will be the week they prove if it’s for real or not. Tennessee ran into a better prepared team in Oakland and mostly played them tough. Expect another low-scoring affair (take the UNDER 43) with Mariota finding some 4th quarter magic to squeak by. Titans 17-14
Browns (+9) @ Ravens : Impressive showing in Week 1 for both teams, albeit one won and one lost. Cleveland looks to prove they don’t belong among the bottom dwellers. Kizer looks like the future, but they’ll ease him into handling too much. Baltimore seems to perennially be overlooked, but it’s likely because they’re SO boring and always do just enough to get by and not impress. I believe that continues Sunday in a competitive AFC North dog fight. Happily, take the points and root for rain. Ravens 26-21
Bills (+7) @ Panthers : Both teams are 1-0, but it’s tough to read much into either of the wins – coming against two of the league’s worst teams. I’ll give the slight edge to the home team who traveled cross country and dominated while getting subpar performances from their QB (Newton) and nothing from their receiving core. Could foresee a shootout early, giving way to Carolina’s stout defense in the 2nd half. Panthers 31-21
Patriots (-6.5) @ Saints : Marquee game of the week, given this lame Week 2 schedule. Patriots not only got embarrassed last Thursday (losing at home while leading at the half for the 1st time in Brady’s career) but they’ll have had 10 days to sulk in it. The Saints are coming off a short week while their defense looked as holy as the Vatican itself. Both teams are drooling at the opportunity to redeem their, respective, nationally televised Week 1 shellacking. However, New England hasn’t started 0-2 since 2001 and there’s no way with this talented roster that changes. Patriots 38-27
Cardinals (-7) @ Colts : It sure seems like the NFL purposely matched-up every 0-1 team and every 1-0 team against each other in Week 2. Talk about a game with zero intrigue. The Colts stayed true to the consensus that they’ll be among the league’s worst without Andrew Luck. Arizona totally fell apart in the 2nd half, allowing the Lions to completely take over the game. Between losing David Johnson for much of the season and Carson Palmer seemingly getting bitch-slapped by father time, it’s hard to imagine them improving from last week. I feel filthy just thinking this, but take the free touchdown & the home dog but don’t tell anybody. Seriously, now go shower immediately. Cardinals 20-17
Eagles (+5.5) @ Chiefs : No way, it’s another matchup of 1-0 teams! Coincidence, I think NOT. Both teams managed impressive road victories last week and both shot up the NFL Power Rankings this week (Week 2 is rightfully known as Overreaction Week). I believe in both teams long-term but with Kansas City having 10 days to prepare and Andy Reid’s impeccable record (16-2 after the bye) on extended rest. Wentz is the real deal and should take major strides this season but winning at Arrowhead is a tall task for any man. Chiefs 24-16
Vikings (+5.5) @ Steelers : This line seems a bit off, considering both teams Week 1 performance. While both are 1-0 (cool trick NFL), the Vikings looked dominant in all phases of the game – not allowing a Saints TD until very late practically in garbage time. Pittsburgh, however, had a difficult time on the road against a 1-15 Cleveland team. Of course, they are rivals and the Browns will always step up for a matchup against the Steelers – on sheer talent alone Pittsburgh should’ve handled the Browns, especially with a rookie signal caller in his 1st NFL start. The Vikings will need to key on Antonio Brown with sneaky double teams and constant coverage over the top to prevent the big play. If Minnesota can maintain the balance on offense they showed on MNF, they should not only keep this game close – they can pull off a surprise victory. Vikings 27-24
Bears (+7) @ Buccaneers : Chicago showed some heart and drive last week, in a failed last second attempt to knock off the former NFC champion. Surprisingly, their defense held their own and Mike Glennon seemed poised and calm. The Bucs received an unheard-of Week 1 bye due to hurricane conditions in Florida. This ‘bye’ situation will come back to haunt the Bucs later in the season, without a doubt. This week, however, it will benefit them since they start the season at full health and with a full game of film to study. A luxury the Bears won’t have this week. Back the Bucs and lay the wood. Buccaneers 31-13
LATE GAMES (4PM EST)
Dolphins (+4) @ Chargers : Eerily similar situation to the game above. Only difference is the Dolphins head clear across the country. Honestly, after dealing with Hurricane Irma and all the stress they’ve surely been under – a weekend trip to California might be just what the doctor ordered. Not to mention, Miami is a superior team with no health issues and everything to prove. The LA Chargers made a roaring comeback on MNF, just to come up short with a blocked game-tying kick as time expired. Heartbreaking stuff. Expect the Dolphins to play loose and exploit a porous secondary all afternoon long. Back up the Brinks truck and let’s get PAID. Dolphins 27-17 **BEST BET**
Jets (+13.5) @ Raiders : It’s surprising to see a line so high in the NFL, especially this early in the season when many “unknowns” still exist. Oakland took care of business on the road in Week 1 and undoubtedly saw the rest of their division look great as well. Don’t expect a let-down as they understand the task at hand. It certainly helps the Jets might even be worse than everyone seemingly projected. If you compete in a “survivor pool” you may want to consider whoever is playing against the Jets all season long. Oakland will cruise in this one and build their confidence along the way. Raiders 35-16
Redskins (+3) @ Rams : Jared Goff & Co looked impressive in Week 1, even against the lowly Colts. I think this new coaching staff is finally pointing this franchise in the right direction, especially offensively. They’ve had a tough defense for a few years now but never got the chance to prove themselves with the offense leading the league in 3 & outs the past few years. Washington clearly would like to redeem their home loss to divisional foe Philadelphia, but they’ve got a tall task ahead. I figure this game to be a nail biter between two even teams (line is right on point, with a 3 pt swing to home team). Suppose I like the Rams to keep it going at home and until I see Cousins develop chemistry with his ‘new’ receiving corps, I’m not a believer. Rams 21-17
Cowboys (-2.5) @ Broncos : Very surprising line here considering the Broncos stout defense and home field advantage. This game will provide a great challenge for both teams and honestly think it may come down to coaching. While only his 2nd career game as a head coach, Vance Joseph seems to have his players willing to fight for him. Dallas, on the other hand, while extremely talented has eventually to be affected by all the drama and turmoil surrounding their team, Ezekiel Elliot especially. Give me the home underdog in this heavyweight battle. Broncos 24-21
49er’s (+14) @ Seahawks : Another unordinary high spread this early in the season, establishing the vast difference from top to bottom of the current NFL landscape. Obviously, Seattle is a superior team both offensively and defensively. They could potentially hold San Fran to single digit points on Sunday, but after watching their offense get swallowed up by below average Green Bay last week. I don’t see how anyone can have faith in this offense to score consistently – especially behind their undersized, underwhelming offensive line. San Fran is well coached and young, with talent in crucial spots defensively. Expect a low-scoring dog fight between NFC West rivals, with Seattle kicking enough FG’s to get the W. Take your 2 TD cushion when betting and watch the offensive struggle-fest get you paid. Seahawks 19-9
SUNDAY NIGHT
Packers (+3) @ Falcons : Now here’s an explosive matchup for SNF, a rematch of the NFC Championship Game last year. While it’s a totally new season with new personal and new expectations – there is zero chance Aaron Rodgers has forgotten the beat down he was handed on the biggest stage last January. Atlanta will be wearing a target on their backs all season, which proved true against the mediocre at best Bears last week. I do foresee a bit of a shootout during the 2nd/3rd quarters, both teams going strike for strike. This is the type of game that whichever offense gets the ball last will likely come out victorious in this game. Falcon Revenge is a top priority on Rodger’s to-do list this season and when better than now. Packers 34-31
MONDAY NIGHT
Lions (+3.5) @ Giants : Thanks NFL and/or ESPN for sharing such a magical match up with the world this Monday night, I’m sure your ratings with be through the roof (sarcastic tone implied). This line right here is the oldest Vegas bookmaking trick in the book. Vegas clearly is begging any and everyone to take Detroit, how couldn’t you now that you’ve seen how good they are, and flip-side how bad the Giants are. Well, maybe a casual fan sees it that way. I happened to notice how legit the Giant defensive front was – holding the potent Cowboys down most of the game. We also learned just how important OBJ truly is to this team, without him Eli was lost and they defense could spread out and cover while still applying pressure. Detroit won’t provide the same hurdles as Dallas and my money says Beckam Jr. suits up – its MNF for god’s sake. OBJ doesn’t miss chances to show off in front of the entire viewing world, never. Nice try with your ‘trick’ line, Vegas – I call your bluff. Giants 24-20
Week 1 Picks :
Patriots (-8.5) , Bills (-9), Bears (+7), Texans (-5), Eagles (-1), Lions (+1.5), Raiders (+2), Bengals (-3), Browns (+8.5), Rams (-3.5) **BEST BET**, Packers (-3), Panthers (-5.5), Cowboys (-3.5), Vikings (-3.5), Broncos (-3.5). Overall Record 12-3, Best Bet Record 1-0