Exploring KJ Osborn’s Future as WR2
Josh Frey
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The Minnesota Vikings are officially bringing back Adam Thielen on a restructured deal, pushing more money into the future to provide immediate cap space to bring in other free agents. There are a few questions surrounding Thielen’s ability to be a true WR2 for years to come, so the money he is owed moving forward (a cap hit of nearly $20 million in 2023) is concerning. That being said, it is worth bringing up again that Thielen has scored 24 touchdowns in his last 28 games for the Vikings. His impact in the red zone is something that must be taken into account; it likely won’t disappear anytime soon. However, some of the role between the 20s may have to go elsewhere, so could KJ Osborn be the guy to take over that role?
A Comparison to Other Teams WR2s
In large part, KJ Osborn put together one of the very best WR3 seasons in the entire NFL during the 2021 campaign. In fact, if you look at Osborn’s 655 receiving yards, that ranks higher than 13 other teams’ WR2 totals. If you exclude tight ends such as Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts and only include players actually designated as wide receivers, this number jumps to 17. Of course, a number of the teams here ranked among the below-average NFL offenses, but playoff teams like the Las Vegas Raiders and Green Bay Packers were also in this group. Of course, every situation is different, but KJ Osborn was very comparable to many WR2s in 2021.
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KJ Osborn’s Small Sample Size as the Vikings WR2
KJ Osborn exceeded many expectations during the 2021 regular season, but the most impressive part of his year may have been over the final six games of the year in Adam Thielen’s absence. Thielen played just 29 snaps over these games, missing four of them entirely. In his stead, Osborn recorded 48 receiving yards per game and scored touchdowns in five of the six games. Expanded out to a 17-game season, this pace would equate to about 822 yards and 14 touchdowns. This essentially matches Thielen’s production from 2020.
Projecting to 2022
It will be very interesting to see what type of role Kevin O’Connell’s offense has in store for Osborn during the 2022 season. Justin Jefferson is entering the peak of his powers, Adam Thielen will remain a steady presence, and Irv Smith Jr. returns from injury. However, it seems safe to assume that Osborn may end up being one of Kirk Cousins’ favorite red zone targets this year.
It doesn’t feel like a coincidence that as soon as Adam Thielen left the lineup, the second-year receiver had his touchdown numbers skyrocket after just two scores through the first 11 games. If Osborn can become a little more reliable as a receiver (he had a catch percentage of just 61% last year), there is little reason to believe that he cannot continue to be a major contributor to the Vikings offense. If Thielen misses extended time again in 2022, we may just see him jump right into that WR2 role yet again.
