Despite Turnaround, Vikings Still Need To Embrace Modern Offense

Photo is courtesy of vikings.com

In just two short weeks, the Vikings have turned what was once a symphony of ineptitude and despair into something resembling competent football.

Long gone (for the time being) are the angry mobs of armchair GMs calling for Trevor Lawrence and a purge of the front office. Instead, a two-game win streak against division rivals has shed a ray of hope and optimism across the region.

A large part of that turnaround has been the Vikings’ offensive fortitude, and, by extension, the work of Offensive Coordinator Gary Kubiak.

Sure, the improvement of the offensive line and the cornerback play certainly contributes to the recent mini win-streak, but it’s hard to argue against the offense being the main catalyst when it leads the league in so many categories.

And despite a league-leading offense, the Vikings have the potential to be even better if they simply embraced the modern NFL.

Go into any NFL analytics office, wade to the middle of the cubicles, and yell at the top of your lungs, “I THINK IT’S A GOOD IDEA TO RUN ON SECOND-AND-LONG!”

Now: count the shivers, groans, and sarcastic laughter.

The second-and-long run has been a boon of the analytics community for years — and a strategy that successful teams are weeding out.

You might be asking yourself, “What’s so bad about a run on second-and-long — especially with the Vikings’ running offense?”

It all boils down to a new set of downs.

The analytics community advocates trying to avoid third down altogether — keep the chains moving by utilizing plays that net a team the most yards per attempt (a.k.a passing plays).

Simply put: When faced with a second-and-long, a team has much better odds of getting the first down with a pass, rather than a run.

And that is something the Vikings are horrendous at.

Going into week 8, the Vikings were bottom of the league in second-and-long pass rate (or, top of the league in second-and-long run rate).

It’s no secret that Mike Zimmer and Gary Kubiak are true old-school coaches. Two men who are stuck in their core philosophies — philosophies that have the potential to succeed, but the potential to be exposed and out-coached as well.

Running comes first on a Mike Zimmer-led football team, but a simple tweak could spell even more success for an offense on a hot-streak: Stop running on second-and-long.

Halfway through the season, we can take a glimpse at how Dalvin Cook is performing in second-down situations:

Dalvin Cook

YardageCarriesYardsYards Per Play
7-9 Yards10777.7
10+ Yards14614.35

And how Kirk Cousins is performing in second-down situations:

Kirk Cousins

YardageAttemptsYardsYards Per Play
7-9 Yards222099.5
10+ Yards231627.04

Cook performs surprisingly well in second-and-long situations — likely why Kubiak continues to dial up plays for him in those scenarios — but is nowhere near the efficiency of a passing play.

Cousins averages 1.8 yards more per play than Cook on second and 7-9, and 2.69 more yards per play on second and 10+.

The discrepancy here can be astronomical in an in-game situation, and could very well be the difference between a third-and-short, and a new set of downs.

Of course, there are nuances here. The score, time remaining, and how well certain players are performing can all factor in play-calling decisions.

But, at the end of the day, the message is clear:

The successful NFL teams are abandoning the second-and-long run.

Despite having Dalvin Cook in the backfield, the numbers suggest the Vikings should too.

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