Delving into Kirk Cousins’ 5-25 Record Against Teams over .500
Taylor
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Unsurprisingly, there has been a lot of talk about Kirk Cousins’ 5-25 record against teams with winning records (it was 4-19 while he was with the Redskins), especially after this past season. So I decided to look back through each of his 25 losses against such teams and see which ones Kirk Cousins actually showed up in (by “showed up,” I mean that he either played well overall or he did enough/played well enough to win despite making mistakes), with his Pro Football Focus game grades included with each of the listed games below. Games where Kirk Cousins wasn’t objectively bad but the offense scored fewer than 20 points while down by at least 17 points before garbage time (specifically, his performance last season against the Saints and his 2017 performance at Philadelphia) are, of course, excluded.
1) At Philadelphia Eagles (2014): In a game that included a fourth-quarter fight, Kirk Cousins played well in this offensive onslaught, as he went 30/48 for 427 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception in a 37-34 loss where the last score was a 1 yard touchdown run from Redskins RB Roy Helu with 4:16 left to go in the 4th quarter. On their final offensive drive, the Redskins were at the PHI 41 and faced a 4th and 10 (after a run by Alfred Morris for no gain on 1st down, an essential throwaway on 2nd down, and a great broken-up pass by Eagles CB Brandon Boykin on 3rd down). Instead of choosing to have their kicker Kai Forbath kick a 59-yard field goal, who had already missed a field goal earlier in the game (even though it was technically doable, given that there was only a 4 mph wind that day), they decided to go for it on 4th down, but a bad miss by Cousins intended for Pierre Garcon led to a turnover on downs. Nick Foles then completed a 19-yard pass to James Casey on 2nd & 11 with 1:43 left to go in the 4th quarter to ice the game. PFF Grade: 83.4
2) At Los Angeles Rams (2018): Most Vikings fans probably remember this game well. Kirk Cousins played well in this 38-31 loss on Thursday Night Football, as he was 36 of 50 for 422 yards (along with 28 yards on the ground). The offensive line, unsurprisingly, had a terrible performance, and it ultimately ended with a blind-side strip sack that came in 3.31 seconds, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats. Jared Goff looked unstoppable in this game, by the way. PFF Grade: 84.9
3) At Dallas Cowboys (2016): While Kirk Cousins and the Redskins offense struggled in the red zone (only 2 touchdowns in 5 red zone trips), he still played well overall, going 41 of 53 for 449 yards with 3 touchdowns and 0 picks. There were 2 missed field goals from the Redskins’ kicker Dustin Hopkins in this game (the sunlight that came in from the roof of the stadium certainly played a role in that, to be fair). Nevertheless, Cousins’ 3rd touchdown pass with 1:53 left to go in the 4th quarter made it 31-26 Cowboys. The Redskins still had two timeouts left, and just needed to make a stop on the ensuing drive for Cousins and the Redskins offense to try to get a touchdown with ~1:00 remaining]. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense always seemed to have an answer in this game, though. PFF Grade: 83.0
4) At Detroit Lions (2016): This game featured a missed 45-yard field goal by Redskins kicker Dustin Hopkins, a fumble by Redskins RB Matt Jones into the end zone when he was around Detroit’s 2-yard line, and a second lost fumble that occurred when Redskins center Spencer Long was pushed back into Kirk Cousins, causing him to trip, on a 3rd & 1 late in the third quarter at the DET 34. Nevertheless, Cousins went 30 for 39 for 301 yards, and played well enough and did enough to win, as his 19-yard touchdown run with 1:05 left to go in the 4th quarter made it 17-13 Redskins. The Redskins defense, unfortunately, then proceeded to allow Matthew Stafford and the Lions offense to go on a 75-yard touchdown drive in 49 seconds and score the game-winning touchdown with 16 seconds left in the 4th quarter. PFF Grade: 65.8
5) At New Orleans Saints (2017): Kirk Cousins played well, going for 22 of 32 for 322 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. His third passing touchdown of the game made it 31-15 with 5:58 left in the fourth quarter. Surprisingly—and unfortunately—Drew Brees and the Saints offense orchestrated two quick touchdown drives (and two successful 2-point conversions) to make it 31-31 with 1:05 left in the 4th quarter. Cousins then responded by driving the Redskins to the NO 34. Then, however, he got incorrectly penalized for intentional grounding. That penalty took the Redskins out of FG range, thus preventing them from having a chance to kick the game-winning field goal in regulation (it was incorrect because the NFL mentioned later that day that there shouldn’t have been a penalty), and the game ended up going to overtime. The Redskins offense got the ball first in overtime, but it resulted in a three-and-out (which included a big dropped pass by Vernon Davis on 1st down and a sack on 2nd down). The Saints offense subsequently got the ball and drove down the field to make a 28-yard FG, giving the Saints a 34-31 OT victory. PFF grade: 80.4
6) At Kansas City Chiefs (2017): Kirk Cousins played well in this Monday Night Football game at Arrowhead Stadium against the then-undefeated Chiefs, going 14 of 24 for 220 yards and 2 touchdowns. However, WR Josh Doctson dropped Cousins’ third potential TD pass in the end zone with 50 seconds left in the 4th quarter. This forced the Redskins to kick a 40-yard field goal to make it 20-20 with 47 seconds left to go in the 4th quarter (instead of the score being either 23-20 or 24-20 Redskins, depending on whether their kicker made the extra point). The Chiefs offense then proceeded to go on a 50-yard, 43-second drive to kick the game-winning FG with 4 seconds left to go in the 4th quarter and make it 23-20 Chiefs. The Redskins offense then tried the almost always unsuccessful lateral trick, which just resulted in Chiefs OLB Justin Houston recovering Redskins RB Chris Thompson’s fumble for a 13-yard touchdown to make it 29-20 Chiefs with no time remaining. PFF grade: 90.6
7) Vs. Minnesota Vikings (2017): This game was riddled with mistakes from the Redskins. While it included a deep tight-window throw from Kirk Cousins to WR Maurice Harris for a one-handed TD catch, it also featured terrible defense, dropped passes (including one by WR Jamison Crowder in the end zone), a great throw to Vernon Davis in the end zone that was broken up, WR Josh Doctson slipping and falling in the end zone which prevented him from catching Cousins’ pass, a badly overthrown pass from Cousins that resulted in an interception late in the 2nd quarter, an overthrown deep pass from Cousins to Doctson that would’ve been a touchdown, and a deep inaccurate completion to an open Chris Thompson on 4th down that prevented a likely touchdown. Despite these mistakes, Kirk Cousins still played well overall against 2017’s #1 defense, going 26 of 45 for 327 yards and scoring 2 touchdowns on the ground. After his 2-yard touchdown run with 14:47 left in the 4th quarter (which came two plays after Case Keenum’s 2nd interception was returned by Redskins safety DJ Swearinger to the MIN 2) made it 35-27 Vikings, the Vikings offense went on a 13 play, 40-yard drive used up more than 7 minutes and resulted in a field goal to make it 38-27 Vikings with 7:45 left to go in the 4th quarter. The Redskins offense turned it over on downs on the subsequent drive with 4:48 left to go in the 4th quarter, as Chris Thompson failed to convert on the ground on both 3rd & 1 AND 4th & 1 from the MIN 33, instead of trying to kick a field goal (which would’ve made it 38-30 Vikings). The Redskins ultimately did get a field goal to make it 38-30 Vikings, as kicker Nick Rose made it with 1:14 left to go in the 4th quarter. A failed ensuing onside kick effectively ended the game, as Washington had used up all of its timeouts by that point. PFF grade: 79.9
8) Vs. Seattle Seahawks (2014): While this game isn’t nearly as strong of an example as the other 7 aforementioned games, Cousins still went 21 for 36 for 283 yards and 2 touchdowns against the very stout Seahawks defense in this game, with almost no support from the running game (Cousins actually accounted for 4 of the Redskins’ 32 total rushing yards). After initially trailing 17-0 in the first half, Cousins and the Washington offense was ultimately able to make it 24-17 Seahawks after Cousins threw a 6-yard touchdown pass to WR Andre Roberts with 3:35 left to go in the 4th quarter. The Redskins still had 2 timeouts left, and just needed to make a stop on the ensuing drive to give Cousins and the offense an opportunity to try and make it 24-24 before the end of the fourth quarter. However, Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense was able to drive 55 yards–aided greatly by a 15-yard face-mask penalty by Redskins DE Jarvis Jenkins, as well as a 30-yard completion to Marshawn Lynch from a scrambling Wilson on 3rd and 4 at the 50–and use up more than 3 minutes of clock, with kicker Stephen Hauschka making a 43 yard field goal with 21 seconds left to effectively end the game. PFF grade: 71.9
Obviously, as we can see, Kirk Cousins’ career win-loss record (5-25) and winning percentage (.167) against winning teams is misleading to an extent (and was particularly misleading while he was with Washington), since he’s actually shown up in more than double his number of wins against such teams. A number of other quarterbacks have a career win-loss record against winning teams that’s below .400 as well: Matthew Stafford (9-62), Jameis Winston (4-19), Cam Newton (20-33-1), Andrew Luck (17-26), and Matt Ryan (28-44). This is significant, because it serves as a reminder that win-loss records in general are pretty bad ways to evaluate quarterbacks. Case in point: Joe Flacco and Drew Brees had almost the exact same record from 2008 to 2017 (Joe Flacco was 92-62 in that span, while Drew Brees was 95-63 in that span), and yet Brees was objectively better than Flacco in every single one of those 10 seasons.