Exactly how hard would it be for the Vikings to replace Cousins?
After Patrick Mahomes may have solidified his spot in the Hall of Fame after just two years as a starter, a lot of Vikings fans are hung up on the thought of a superstar quarterback. Despite Kirk Cousins having a top five season as a QB, fans are already looking toward the next big thing. So how hard exactly would it be to replace Cousins?
Well first we have to figure out what kind of player we want to replace him with. Any veteran player is out of the question, as it wouldn’t make sense to ditch a massive cap hit just to acquire another. Even if Minnesota did acquire a veteran there isn’t anyone available that would fill Kirk’s shoes. The list of available quarterbacks include Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Philip Rivers, Teddy Bridgewater, and Case Keenum. With it being very unlikely to sign one of these players they will need to look ahead to the draft.
The Chiefs moving up several draft spots to take a flyer on Patrick Mahomes is gonna be the talk of the off-season, but just how often does that work? If we take a look back at every draft from 2010-2019, there have only been six quarterbacks drafted that are significantly better than Kirk Cousins. That list includes: Andrew Luck, Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Nick Foles, and Russell Wilson. While many will say Foles isn’t better, his Superbowl ring lands him a slot on this list. There have been 117 quarterbacks drafted since 2010, including Cousins. This makes the going rate for a superstar quarterback sit at about 0.0512 or 5.1%. To make matters worse, these six guys came out of three drafts in total (2012, 2017, 2018). Meaning there is a seventy percent chance that an entire draft class wouldn’t even have a QB on the same level as Kirk Cousins.
Once things are laid out in mathematical terms it seems like the Vikings have it pretty good. All this data does not mean the Vikings shouldn’t look for a QB of the future, but it does condemn trading away entire drafts for an unproven talent like Burrow or Tua. The Vikings will have to move on from Cousins at some point in time, but let’s all hope they do it the right way.