A Realistic Evaluation Of Case Keenum As A Starter

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Oct 31, 2017
(AP Photo/Keith Srakocic, File)

I hoped it would never come to this. When Sam Bradford’s injury was first reported on September 13, I hoped that Case Keenum would come in, play uninspiring but effective football, and the team could move on. But no such luxuries have been provided. Case Keenum has played the majority of the Vikings’ season, culminating ina  6-2 start. But we need to be realistic about our evaluations. We have to understand that winning four consecutive games doesn’t immediately invalidate everything that went wrong in those games. It doesn’t make a 3-2 halftime score against the Bears acceptable. It doesn’t erase McKinnon’s fumbles against Green Bay, and it doesn’t absolve Case Keenum of inaccuracy, turnover-prone play, and ultimately limiting the offense.

Of course, this entire discussion is moot if Teddy Bridgewater isn’t ready to play, so for the purposes of argument, we’ll assume he’s 100%.

On the idea of a “hot hand,’ there are three issues with that logic at least. First, it assumes that Keenum is responsible for the four game win streak the Vikings are enjoying, when any conscious football watcher can see games that are constantly won in spite of their quarterback. Second, it implies that the Vikings can’t make a reasonable evaluation of Case Keenum’s play, and the likelihood that he’ll eventually cause a loss. That’s simply untrue, it’s not some unsolvable mystery. Third, it implies that the Vikings should only move away from Keenum when they incur a loss. But it seems unwise to employ a strategy that is likely to incur a loss and just wait for that to happen.

Keenum hasn’t been incredibly efficient- his 6.9 yards per attempt rank 25th in the league, and his passer rating (after adjusting away spikes, throwaways, etc) ranks 24th. But by some more advanced analytics, Case Keenum fares a lot better – QBR ranks him 7th, thanks in large part to his 42% conversion rate on 3rd downs. By ANY/A, he ranks 12th, largely earned through sack evasion. A larger sample will likely even this out. This paints the picture of a quarterback who is limited on the whole, but is able to find more success in high-octane situations. On play action plays, Keenum’s passer rating of 120.9 is 5th in the NFL, but without it, he falls to 6th worst at 78.2. He often relies on the talents of his supporting cast. Keenum has, however, done an excellent job of evading pressure. In fact, of 90 dropbacks under pressure, Keenum has only been sacked on five of them- a rate that is best in the league by a wide margin.

As for Teddy, statistically, he has a slight edge in YPA, a major edge in INT%, and similar totals in passer rating and touchdown percentage (yes, a season at Keenum’s pace would be pretty close to Teddy’s infamous 14 TDs). Teddy’s ability to evade sacks wasn’t as good as Keenum’s, 19% to Keenum’s 5%, but is still excellent. Outside of this, there isn’t really a category where Keenum blows Teddy away, and he doesn’t separate himself enough to earn a long-term starting job. He certainly won’t be named the league’s most accurate quarterback by any media outlets. Keenum shares Teddy’s weaknesses plus a few of his own.

Statistically, Keenum has accomplished what Bridgewater could accomplish, but with a much better supporting cast. The film highlights the real difference between the two quarterbacks, and indicate a potential for Teddy to take this Vikings teem deep into the NFC playoffs. As always, I’ll defer to more seasoned content providers. You should seriously follow all of these people if you aren’t already.

While Keenum has put together solid plays at the right time, he frequently makes inexcusable mistakes, like this. A better defender could easily pick this off for six, and we’re lucky we haven’t seen it yet:

Keenum’s biggest issue is one of arm strength and velocity, which is especially ironic considering the “noodle arm” argument against Bridgewater is alive and well. This is readily apparent on deep throws, where he has to heave at the cost of precision:

You can also always pick out intended receivers waiting on the ball and losing their separation. There’s no reason this touchdown should have been contested:

https://twitter.com/Cianaf/status/913555661975281664

It’s not all bad. Here’s an example of Keenum’s excellent pocket presence, though, Thielen is waiting on the ball again.

And he’ll occasionally drop a dime in a tight window:

But these plays are much rarer than the issues outlined above. Low-velocity, inaccurate passes will lead to more than three picks on the season, and, should the Vikings stick with him, we should expect that to lose us games.

As for Teddy, he is immensely more accurate, and can evade pressure just as impressively:

https://twitter.com/Cianaf/status/669659563147304960

The strange thing is, these quarterbacks are inherently similar. Both are very good at evading pressure, both have uninspiring deep balls, and both seem to excel in high-pressure game scenarios. Bridgewater, simply, is better at putting the ball where he means to, and has a stronger arm. If we want to scrape by with mediocrity until the wheels fall off and the team collapses, we can, by all means, let Case Keenum limp us to that end. I’d rather make a run at a Lombardi with Teddy Bridgewater.

Thanks for reading!

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