A Few First Round Draft Surprises that Could Happen
Josh Frey
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The NFL Draft is fast approaching, and everyone has their own theories about what is going to happen. As for me? I have absolutely no clue. There are so many different directions that so many teams could go. Plenty of teams have multiple needs, not to mention this year’s quarterback movement could dwarf what was last year’s unprecedented amount of quarterbacks on new teams. With that in mind, here are a few different scenarios that I could see unfolding once April 29th rolls around.
The First Four Picks Are QBs
Before you click away thinking how ridiculous this is, hear me out. I know this is probably the least likely thing to happen, but it feels…possible. The QB class this year is very good. Jacksonville will be taking Trevor Lawrence, obviously. The Jets will probably take either Justin Fields or Zach Wilson (read more of my thoughts on this later).
The next pick is the key, though. I would be shocked if Miami took a quarterback at three, but I would be less shocked if they trade out of that pick. There are plenty of teams that could trade up to take a QB. It also matters that Atlanta sits immediately below Miami, and they could also be looking at a QB to move on from Matt Ryan. Because of that, I don’t think it is out of the realm of possibility for a team like Carolina to move up and get their choice of player, especially with another team ahead of them, Detroit, likely looking at a quarterback.
A counter argument is that that Atlanta could also make a trade to ensure that they get their choice. That said, Carolina has been connected to Justin Fields should they trade up, and Atlanta has been connected to Trey Lance if they choose to take a quarterback. They may not feel that it is necessary to move up one spot for a guy that they believe they’ll end up with anyway. With that, we have four quarterbacks taken in the first four picks.
Justin Fields Falls Out of the Top Five
In Mel Kiper’s recent mock draft, he shocked the world by having the Jets take Devonta Smith with the second overall pick. Honestly, this makes a lot of sense. New York may not be ready to move on from Sam Darnold yet, and they may believe that if they put talent around him, he will be able to succeed.
Not only that, but there is increasing buzz around the league that Zach Wilson might in fact be the second quarterback off the board. This also makes sense. If you look at past Ohio State quarterbacks going into the NFL, there really aren’t that many success stories. Justin Fields was amazing this year for Ohio State, but it’s still a valid concern for teams to have based on the history. Wilson also has great playmaking ability and a cannon for an arm which could draw teams towards him over Fields.
Should New York opt to keep faith in Sam Darnold, and Atlanta goes with Wilson or even Lance over Fields, the next teams that would realistically take a quarterback are Detroit at seven or Carolina at eight. Miami (if they keep the pick) should either go with Penei Sewell or a receiver. Cincinnati and Philadelphia shouldn’t be taking quarterbacks, either. Not to mention, Atlanta could also decide to stick with Matt Ryan, which would allow them to take a defender like Patrick Surtain or Micah Parsons.
Jets Trade for Deshaun Watson
This one doesn’t have direct, immediate effects on the draft, but the ripple effects could impact it. Among the Deshaun Watson trade rumors, one that feels under the radar is a potential trade to the Jets. It has been reported that Watson put the Jets as one of his top destinations. Should that happen, Houston would more than likely move into the second overall pick, and they may also get Sam Darnold in the deal as well. They would no longer have a need for a quarterback which opens them up to take someone like Rashawn Slater, who can easily slide in at guard next to Laremy Tunsil.
Houston could receive New York’s 23rd pick as well in a trade. Depending on how things play out, Houston could be able to snag a good receiver like Rashad Bateman, giving Darnold a legitimate target to throw to. If Houston can snag both Slater and one of the better receivers, that has to be considered a successful first draft post-Deshaun Watson.