A Cutthroat Assignment in Tampa for Vikings
Dustin Baker
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A Cutthroat Assignment in Tampa for Vikings
This weekend, the Minnesota Vikings will undertake one of their most grueling challenges to date under Mike Zimmer. Indeed, the Vikings have seen several tricky games since 2014,including twice per season against the Packers and several road affairs in Seattle. With the 2020 Dallas Cowboys as a close second, the Vikings have not recently faced a team with this much pass-catching horsepower. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate, Tyler Johnson, and Scotty Miller [if all are healthy] will provide a massive test for a Vikings secondary that ranks 26th in the NFL in passing yards allowed.
Moreover, Minnesota has struggled to establish a consistent pass rush this season. Often, the only time pressure is evident on a normative basis is when Zimmer chooses to blitz. This occurredin the Bears game and in the second half versus the Jaguars – both wins for the Vikings. Blitzing Tom Brady is typically not advisable. Neither is allowing him to lounge in the pocket. Zimmer must choose which weapon of Brady’s to potentially die by – too much blitz or too much time in the pocket. In this regard, the absence of Danielle Hunter is felt deep in the Vikings bones.
Overturning every rock in the Buccaneers-Vikings pregame analysis illuminates swashbuckling nightmares. Let’s look at that the most glaring components of the matchup that lessen the Vikings chances of triumphing over Tom in Tampa.
Tampa’s Rush Defense
If the Buccaneers have any semblance of a homogenous calling card in recent seasons, it is their ability to stop the opposition’s rushing attack. In virtually every meaningful rushing defense metric, the Buccaneers are tops in the NFL. They held such honors last year, too. But nobody cared because Jameis Winston was too busy throwing interceptions.
Tampa ranks No. 1 in rushing yards allowed, rushing yards per play allowed, and rush attempts allowed. Teams do not run against the Bucs (compared to other franchises). When they do, those teams are held to a stingy 3.3 yards per carry this season.
Running the football – or merely establishing the threat of it – is the Vikings modus operandi. Gary Kubiak, Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, and friends will not be able to run the football per usual in Tampa Bay during Week 14. Cousins will have to win the game with his right arm.
A Game on Grass … against Tom Brady
Yay. Grass.
Since 2014 when Zimmer became the skipper, Minnesota’s win-loss record on grass surfaces is 16-18-1 (.471). They will less than half of all games that take place on grass. As a standalone statistic, this is not atrocious. It ranks 18th in the NFL during the timeframe. Comparatively, though, it’s pretty stinky. Consider this – on artificial surfaces, the Vikings are the league’s fifth-best team in the last six years (49-29, .628). Therefore, if you roll your eyes when you see a grass game on the schedule, this is why. Minnesota wins most of the time when they play on non-grass surfaces. Minnesota loses most of the time when they play on grass.
It gets worse. The Vikings have never defeated Tom Brady. The longtime Patriots signal-caller and six-time Super Bowl king is 5-0 versus the Vikings. Like clockwork, Brady solves the Vikings every four years: 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, and 2018. The timeline has been moved up as he now lives inside the NFC South.
The Vikings task will be to thwart the 43-year-old Brady on grass while containing a noteworthy slew of weapons from Mike Evans to Tyler Johnson and everything between.
Road Game vs. a Winning Team
This is the other morsel of Zimmer kryptonite.
From an efficiency standpoint, the Vikings are about as good at beating winning teams on the road as they are in playing on grass surfaces against anybody (regardless of record). Since Zimmer became head coach, the Vikings are 7-21 (.250) against winning teams in away games. This ranks 17th in the business. Stats that mention “vs. teams with winning records” are designed to deceive. Why? Because almost no NFL franchise regularly wins against teams with winning records – that is why the opponent has a winning record. Those opponents are good. They beat other teams – routinely.
Only two teams since 2014 have a record above .500 against winning teams on the road – the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots. The Vikings are one spot south of exactly average.
Minnesota wins 25% of games against winning teams on the road. Is the prospect of an old Tom Brady one of those 1-out-of-4 situations? Can Dalvin Cook figure out a rigid rushing defense? Will the Vikings young cornerbacks stifle the Buccaneers ensemble cast of pass-catcher?
Exiting Tampa Bay, Florida, would be a humongous feat considering these hurdles.