7 Bold Predictions for the 2018 Season
Micah Tweeten
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Kyle Rudolph will finish the 2018-19 season as the TE6 or better.
Rudolph is being taken as the TE8, but has a couple things going for him this season: 1) Cousins has had his primary tight end target finish with an average statline of 77 catches, 879 yards, and 5 touchdowns over the last three years, which was good enough to finish as the TE4 last year. 2) Rudolph hangs his hat on being a redzone target, which means he has the potential to score more than the average Cousins target, and Cousins has already raved about the potential of throwing to Rudolph in the red zone (which gives Cousin a security blanket inside the opponents’ 20). Additionally, Rudolph has finished inside the top six for TEs the last two years (but did finish outside the top ten the three years prior to that).
Lamar Miller will finish as a top 15 RB.
As documented on the regression part three article, Miller averaged 12.2 points per game last season when Deshaun Watson was the starting quarterback – good for the RB10 slot when extrapolated throughout the whole season. With Watson, he ran for 22 more yards from the line of scrimmage per game (88 vs. 66) and doubled his touchdown performance (4 total TDs in 6 weeks vs. 2 total TDs in 9 weeks). These stats along with his positive regression will lead to a RB1 performance over the 2018-19 season, despite being taken as the RB22.
George Kittle will finish as the TE10 or better.
Kittle was the TE10 last year after Garoppolo became the new quarterback and he developed an even better rapport with Jimmy G as the season went on, finishing as the TE3 for the last three weeks of the season in standard leagues (averaging 8.5 points per game) and as the TE5 in PPR leagues during that same stretch (averaging 12.1 ppg). He saw an average of roughly five targets per game during that stretch (just one less target in those three games than Travis Kelce and Evan Engram, and four more than Jimmy Graham). If he saw that same amount of work that he did from week 15 through 17 for an entire year, he would finish with 59 catches for 1,035 yards, and 5 touchdowns (or more realistically, if he gets the work that he did weeks 13 through 17, he would finish with 48 catches for 717 yards and 3 touchdowns – good for TE9 in standard last year or TE10 in PPR). Kittle’s ability in the red zone (and the lack of other red zone targets on the 49ers) will allow him to put up points from touchdowns while his athleticism and rapport with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will allow him to have a dependable target share.
Marcus Mariota will finish as the QB12 or better.
As documented in more detail in my article on players due for positive regression, Mariota looks primed for a bounceback season after the struggle of the 2017 season. During his rookie year, Mariota was QB15 in points per game for all quarterbacks with 350+ passes thrown. Before getting injured and sitting out week 17 in 2016, Mariota was sitting as the QB12 in fantasy points. Last year, despite historically bad numbers, Mariota finished as the QB18 (and would have finished as the QB11 with simply career-average touchdown efficiency). He’s proven he can do it, and he looks ready to bounce back and do it again in 2018, despite being taken as the QB18.
Derrick Henry will finish outside the top 30 running backs.
This simply comes down to opportunity. Henry was given more opportunity last year as Murray struggled, but simply couldn’t repeat his efficiency from the year before by running for only 4.2 yards per carry (behind players who also had between 115 and 175 carries like Wayne Gallman, Bilal Powell, Orleans Darkwa, Alfred Morris, and the back he is now competing with for carries – Dion Lewis). Now, he has to compete with Dion Lewis for both carries and receptions out of the backfield. Because he is being drafted as the RB15 at the end of the second round or beginning of the third round, we would expect him to carry a rather significant load in the running game and be able to make an impact in the passing game as well to make that pick worth it. But Henry has a total of 286 rushes in his NFL career and has never had more than 176 in a single year. Add in the fact that Lewis will be taking the majority of work in the passing game, and Henry holds a rather low floor that we could see come crashing down if he doesn’t pick up the opportunity that many are hoping for with Henry.
Sammy Watkins is the Chiefs wide receiver to own, not Tyreek Hill.
There are currently four Chiefs weapons being taken in the seven rounds, with three of those being taken in the first three rounds. With QB Patrick Mahomes not being taken until the eleventh, it seems to be true that one of those has to give (either Mahomes will be a top 3 fantasy QB this year, or one or two of those players will bust relative to their draft position). According to PFF’s Actual Opportunity metric, Hill substantially outperformed the opportunity he was given and will be unlikely to repeat his season unless his opportunity goes up. Hill will be competing with both Kelce and Watkins for some of the deeper routes, and Mahomes will likely favor the more established Kelce. Given Watkins’ ability to score in the red zone and the lack of dominant red zone options on the Chiefs, he holds an upside to score more often whereas Hill has to hit on his 40+ yard touchdowns each week in order to remain relevant, so it is easy to imagine a world where Watkins surpasses Hill in fantasy points by the end of the year.
Rookies DJ Moore and Anthony Miller will finish as top 30 wide receivers.
Typically, it’s been smart to avoid drafting rookie receivers and instead making a move for one if opportunity arises, but Moore and Miller are the two standouts that have been presented a great opportunity to cement themselves as a fantasy asset as rookies. Moore and Miller had the best tape in college and they are now going to be given the opportunity to prove why they were taken so high. Moore, the first receiver taken in the draft, is a part of a Panthers receiving corps that lacks competition outside of tight end Greg Olsen and receiver Devin Funchess. Miller, my personal favorite receiver in the draft, is a part of a Bears receiving corps that lacks proven talent with the exception of Allen Robinson, who hasn’t played or played well since 2015 (Taylor Gabriel is the only other receiver on the Bears roster who has caught at least 500 yards at least once in the last five seasons…and he did it in 2014 with the Browns). Add into the fact that at least two rookie receivers have finished inside the top 30 for the last three years, and it seems likely that at least one of Moore and Miller (and my guess would be both) can finish inside the top 30 for their position.