The Vikings Are Letting a Contender Slip Away
According to polls on PurplePTSD and Vikings Territory, Vikings fans were extremely bullish on the team heading into the 2025 season. In many ways, it was understandable: the team went 14-3 in 2024 and spent big on the trenches in free agency.
Yet, as I wrote before the season, there were plenty of reasons for caution as well. Infamously, the 2024 Vikings got very good QB play from Sam Darnold before letting him walk. They had good injury luck, with few serious injuries to key players.
Their underlying metrics—including the simple yet reliable “point differential”—suggested they weren’t quite as good as their record suggested. Their success relied on the rarely sustainable method of generating turnovers, and their turnover margin was tied for third-best in the NFL, at +9.
By the same token, there are plenty of reasons for optimism in 2026. The 2025 Vikings had some of the league’s worst QB play, largely due to J.J. McCarthy’s inexperience and injuries. Whether the team turns to McCarthy again or signs a more experienced veteran QB1, it’s very likely that we’ll see some improvement at the QB position this season.
The 2025 Vikings were decimated by injuries to McCarthy, Pro Bowl EDGEs Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard, and especially the offensive line. The intended starting five O-linemen got just 83 snaps together in 2025–a number that is very likely to improve next season.
The 2025 Vikings’ point differential was +11, which is just about what you’d expect for a 9-8 team. The 2025 Vikings went through a long dry spell of generating turnovers, ending the season tied for the league’s third-worst turnover margin, with -9. The 2025 Vikings weren’t great by any means, but nor were they deserving of the mockery they received: on the whole, this was a solid team that might well have earned a wild-card spot in a different season.
All this suggests that the Vikings are likely to turn things around in 2026, seriously contending for a playoff spot or even a division title. (The defending division champion Bears show many signs of regressing next season.) Furthermore, the recipe for contention this season seems straightforward: run it back with your top-tier defense as much as possible, try to shore up your battered offensive line, and bring in serious competition for McCarthy at QB.
Yet, in recent days, the Vikings have behaved like a team that is doing everything they can to avoid contending in 2026. DL Jonathan Allen and DL Javon Hargrave have reportedly been shown the door, and the Vikings seem unwilling to come to terms with underpaid star EDGE Jonathan Greenard.
In other words, they are taking one of the best pass rushes in the league—a key part of one of the best defenses in the league—and selling it for parts, taking on big dead cap hits in the process and creating roster holes that will likely be filled with worse players.
Some might say that the Vikings are sacrificing short-term success for a chance at long-term greatness. But this roster is simply too strong to tear it down, the cap savings from doing so are small, and—aside from the Wilfs themselves—there is no one in this organization whose job is guaranteed to survive a rebuild right now.
The team is planning to interview new GM candidates after the draft, and there’s no telling which of the current Vikings’ coaches, staffers, and players they might look to replace if the team struggles out of the gate in 2026. In other words, any “long-term” moves the current organization makes are likely only hastening their departure and benefiting their replacements.
I sincerely hope the Vikings’ owners aren’t following the example of the Twins’, responding to a disappointing season with pay cuts that are sure to lead to yet further disappointment. But if they don’t get serious about building this roster, the Vikings will waste a 2026 that is full of promise and potential.