2026 NFC North Preview: Chicago Bears
The NFC North is as wide open as it has been in years. Any of the four teams could realistically win the division, which makes evaluating each rival even more important. We start with the defending champs: the Chicago Bears.
Last Season: A (Fraudulent?) Division Title
In their best season in years, the Bears won the NFC North with an 11-6 record and managed a momentous, come-from-behind playoff win against the rival Packers.
That said, the Bears had all the signs of a “fraudulent” team: their point differential was just +26, and their success was driven primarily by a league-best +22 turnover differential. In other words, the Bears made their living off means that are seldom sustainable.
Biggest Move: Overhauling the Safety Room
Safety Kevin Byard led the league with 7 interceptions in 2025, earning a spot on the AP All-Pro first team for his efforts. But Byard will turn 33 in August, and the Bears decided to let him walk in free agency. Meanwhile, their other starting safety—Jaquan Brisker—allowed a passer rating of 127.6 when targeted in 2025; he, too, was shown the door.
To fill the holes left by these departures, the Bears signed Coby Bryant, an opportunistic safety whose 4 interceptions played an important role in Seattle’s Super Bowl championship season in 2025. They then used their first round pick on Dillon Thieneman out of the University of Oregon, an athletic, hard-hitting safety who had been widely mocked to the Vikings in 2026.
Biggest Loss: D.J. Moore
The Bears traded WR1 D.J. Moore and a 5th-round draft pick to the Buffalo Bills in exchange for a 2nd-round pick, clearing up $16.5 million in cap space in the process. The move was not too surprising given Moore’s statistical dip in 2025 and the strong rookie season of Luther Burden III, whose 79.3 PFF grade was 18th best among the 81 qualifying receivers in the NFL. Burden will join WR Rome Odunze and TE Colston Loveland as Caleb Williams’ main targets in 2026.
It is also worth noting that the 2025 Bears’ offensive coordinator Declan Doyle left for the Ravens’ OC position, and the team promoted pass game coordinator Press Taylor to fill the vacancy. HC Ben Johnson will retain play-calling duties, however.
Bottom Line: Regression Is Certain, But How Much?
Despite comfortably winning the 2025 NFC North, the Bears’ Vegas odds of defending their title sits at just 7/2, putting them behind both the Lions (7/4) and Packers (5/2). The nation wasn’t fooled by what we saw in 2025: the Bears were not as good as their record showed, and none of their offseason departures or additions have done much to sway the team’s prospects.
A spoiler for the remainder of this series: the 2026 NFC North is extremely difficult to predict because there isn’t an obvious frontrunner. Any ranking of the four teams is defensible, and any of the four teams could finish in either first or last place.
In the end, the Bears’ fate hinges largely on the ability of QB Caleb Williams to take another step forward in his third season. Williams was touted as a generational talent for years leading up to his number one overall selection by the Bears in 2024, but his first season was disappointing, and his second was just fine.
If Williams can reach anything close to the level of greatness originally promised, we will all look back at the 2025 Bears’ season as the first glimpse of the dynasty to come. But more likely, the Bears we see will be similar to the Bears we saw last year, and that team will need some lucky breaks to defend their title.