This Year’s Draft Strategy Is Pretty Obvious for the Vikings

Trading down is never a popular move, but it’s probably the right one for the Vikings this year. Here are three reasons the Vikings could and should be looking to trade down on draft day.
1. The math says so.

Unless you’re trading up for a QB, the analytics suggest that trading down is usually the right call because teams tend to overestimate their ability to identify talent in the draft and are thus likely to overpay to move up. It’s hard to predict the future career success of NFL draft prospects, so it pays off to trade higher picks for more picks.
2. The Vikings are low on draft capital…and have lots of holes.
Having flaunted the analytics in 2024 with multiple trade-ups for EDGE Dallas Turner, GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is left with only three draft picks in the 2025 draft (one first-round pick and two fifths), plus a likely round-three compensatory pick.

Meanwhile, the 2024 Vikings had the oldest roster in the NFL, and many key players are set to either depart in free agency or retire. This means the Vikings will have holes at many key positions, including RB, CB, iOL, iDL, and S. The Vikings are likely to address many of these holes in free agency, but even so, they could benefit greatly from an injection of young talent through the draft.
3. The Vikings’ positional needs can be addressed in later rounds.
Historically, QBs, defensive linemen, offensive tackles, and cornerbacks have the steepest dropoffs in talent over the first few rounds of the NFL draft. In contrast, high-quality safeties, running backs, and interior offensive linemen can often be found even in the middle rounds of the draft.

By trading back with their first-round pick, the Vikings may well be able to secure a pair of day-two picks, which could turn into competent starters at positions of need.
Having said all this, the Vikings would also be well-advised to maintain some level of flexibility heading into the draft. Trading back brings with it a number of advantages, but these pale in comparison to the advantage of really nailing a draft pick. If the Vikings stick at 24 and pick a future Pro Bowler, you won’t hear a peep out of me.
Ultimately, Minneosta’s draft strategy will depend on how they fare in free agency and how the board falls. There are valid reasons why the Vikings may choose to go a different direction, but with the information we currently have, a trade-down is the most advantageous outcome, and the most likely one.

Vikings Assigned Offseason Homework by PFF