Sam Darnold’s Contract Projection Is Wild
The Minnesota Vikings can be delighted with their quarterback, Sam Darnold. After six years of underwhelming play, he has finally turned the corner and become a solid signal-caller, better than anyone could’ve expected when rookie J.J. McCarthy suffered his season-ending knee injury in August.
Sam Darnold’s Contract Projection Is Wild
That injury ruled out any QB competition in the Twin Cities and elevated Darnold to a season-long starter rather than a bridge option that ends up on the bench after a month or two, similar to Jacoby Brissett in New England.
After the conclusion of the regular season last weekend, Darnold’s numbers show over 4,300 passing yards and 35 passing touchdowns. That production is comparable to Kirk Cousins’ previous years, despite his Week 18 stinker.
His level of play throughout the season has raised the question of whether the Vikings shouldn’t just re-sign the passer and continue to hunt the Lombardi Trophy with him. Sure, having the safe option makes sense, but paying a quarterback the big bucks is also what they escaped when Cousins walked out of the building in March.
Nobody really knows what Darnold could get in free agency, but one thing is clear: there are too many QB-needy teams in a year with an underwhelming draft class. Teams like the Titans or Raiders don’t have any short or long-term options on the roster, and others like the Browns or the Jets can’t be happy with their outlook either.
The Vikings have a ton of cap space and could afford Darnold, but that would undoubtedly hurt the other areas of the team. Signing a new guard, defensive tackle, and cornerback, as well as keeping their own free agents, is suddenly no longer doable.
Considering his play, which looked quite good for most of the season (every quarterback has a couple of subpar games in a season) and earned him a trip to the Pro Bowl, he can command a significant salary.
Spotrac estimated his market value, and the number is outlandish: According to the website, the QB’s value is $54.7 million. Not for an entire contract, just for one year. They think a realistic contract could land him roughly $218.6 million for four seasons.
How did they come up with that estimation? They compared his 2024 numbers with similar QB seasons from recent years and then checked the following contracts of those QBs. The passers they came up with are Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, and Jordan Love.
It should be noted, though, that Darnold had only one year with those numbers, while at least Herbert and Burrow have played at that level for years. All four passers have landed annual salaries north of $50 million.
Teams will enter free agency with thoughts about Darnold’s previous seasons, and that will lower his price. It’s also noteworthy that other teams don’t have Kevin O’Connell and Justin Jefferson, so his ceiling in Tennessee or Cleveland might not be quite at this year’s level.
While it is unrealistic to expect a deal worth $54.7 million, an annual salary of $40 million isn’t unrealistic at all.
The Vikings will have to make a decision. A franchise tag is on the table, just like a long-term contract. However, McCarthy will likely return to the practice field in the offseason and be full-go in the preseason. He is way cheaper, and O’Connell is a big fan of the 21-year-old.
Darnold could be the top free agent in the NFL this year.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference helped with this article.
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Janik Eckardt is a football fan who likes numbers and stats. The Vikings became his favorite team despite their quarterback at the time, Christian Ponder. He is a walking soccer encyclopedia, loves watching sitcoms, and prefers Classic rock over other genres. Follow him on Twitter if you like the Vikings: @JanikEckardt