Do the Vikings Need to Stop the Run?
For the first five games of the 2025 season, the Vikings’ defense was good against the pass but bad against the run. After week six, they led the league in defensive EPA on passing plays but ranked 25th in rushing EPA.
Against the Eagles in Week 7, the Vikings’ defense did a 180: they sold out to stop the run by switching up their defensive depth chart. They subsequently allowed only 45 yards to the Eagles, but they surrendered a perfect passer rating to Jalen Hurts. In Week 7, the Vikings ranked dead last in pass defense EPA/play but 4th in rush defense EPA/play.
In Week 8, the Vikings’ defense couldn’t do anything right, getting gashed in both the pass and run games.
What are we to do now?
The traditional view holds that an offense must establish the run to set up the pass. In today’s passing-centered game, however, this mantra doesn’t really hold water. Out of 32 NFL teams, only four have a positive EPA/play on rush attempts. In other words, for 28 teams in the league, a typical running play actually hurts their chances of scoring points.
In contrast, 26 out of 32 teams have a positive EPA on passing attempts. Passing is the key to success in today’s game.
So far this season, the Vikings’ worst game of run defense came against the Atlanta Falcons. The defense surrendered 218 yards on 39 carries en route to a 0.174 rush EPA/play.
Make no mistake: that game marked a terrible defensive effort against the run. Yet at the same time, a defensive pass EPA/play of 0.174 would rank only 9th worst out of 32 teams so far this season. In other words, even a terrible run defense is only as harmful as a subpar pass defense.
Of course, there comes a point at which a running game is so effective that it is enough to sustain success. Furthermore, although runs on 1st-and-10 and 2nd-and-10 usually lead to negative value, the ability to run on 3rd-and-short or in a late-game situation can be the difference between winning and losing.
But at this point, the Vikings have shown no ability to stop both the run and the pass, and when they’ve tried to do both, they’ve done neither. If we have to choose one, let’s go back to the early-season, pass-focused personnel packages and force our opponents to work to beat us through the air.