Standout Viking Predicted to Have a Huge Game
The Minnesota Vikings enter the final four games of the year with a near-zero chance to qualify for the tournament, but players like Justin Jefferson will still be motivated to reach their milestones.
The receiver is in danger of posting his first season without reaching the magic 1,000-yard mark.
Justin Jefferson’s Subpar Season
The superstar wideout has only caught 64 passes for 810 yards and two touchdowns. Though his own play hasn’t been flawless this season, his quarterbacks haven’t helped him much, that’s for sure.
In each of his first five seasons in the league, Jefferson produced at least 1,000 yards. His lowest total was 1,074 in 2023. That year, he missed seven entire games with a hamstring and left two games early. In several of his appearances, he had Nick Mullens, Jaren Hall, or Joshua Dobbs throw him the ball. And he still reached four digits.
In the games with J.J. McCarthy under center, his numbers have been especially low. His best output with the first-year starter was an 81-yard performance in Week 2. Last week, in McCarthy’s best game, he only produced 11 yards. Both of his 100-yard games came with Carson Wentz in the lineup — both in Europe.
Breakout Game Incoming?
It feels like it’s only a matter of time. A player of his caliber is inevitably posting huge numbers at some point, regardless of the defense’s attention or the quarterback play.
The Around the NFL staff of NFL.com shared some bold predictions for Week 15. Of the five-person panel, two chose Jefferson predictions.
Fantasy analyst Marcas Grant wrote, “Justin Jefferson scores 20-plus PPR fantasy points. Predicting a big game from Jefferson is like predicting the end of the world. Say it enough times, and eventually you’ll be right. This week’s reason for hope comes in the form of a Cowboys defense that, while improved, still gives up yards through the air. Also, because the Vikings are likely to be playing from behind, that’s a recipe for Jefferson putting up 20 fantasy points for the first time since Week 4.”
To reach 20 fantasy points without a touchdown (presumably in a PPR league, in which one yard gets 0.1 point and one catch one point), Jefferson would need, for example, eight receptions for 120 yards. A six-point touchdown would reduce that to a line like six receptions for 80 yards.
Michael Florio predicted, “Justin Jefferson gets back to doing Justin Jefferson things. Yup, after whiffing on this very prediction last week, I am doubling down! Minnesota isn’t likely to shut out a second straight NFC East team. If the Vikings find themselves trailing the Cowboys’ top-ranked offense, they will be forced to throw the ball against a Dallas defense that has allowed the most yards and touchdowns to receivers aligned out wide and on deep passes. Give me Jefferson to have 100 receiving yards and a score in the same game for the first time this season.”
It could be a big day for Jefferson, facing a banged-up secondary that isn’t too good anyway. Trevon Diggs won’t play, and corner Daron Bland hasn’t always been reliable. He’ll likely draw the Jefferson matchup.
The game script could play a role. Last week, the Vikings got a big lead early in the game, allowing Kevin O’Connell to feature run and pass equally. Unlike the Commanders, however, the Cowboys will put up points. That’s how they operate.
Getting behind would force the Vikings to throw the ball, and Jefferson is always the preferred target.
We might see another stinker because it just hasn’t clicked between Jefferson and McCarthy, but he is too talented to continue on the 7.5-yard pace of the last two games for much longer.
Editor’s Note: Information from PFF, Over The Cap, and Sports Reference helped with this article.