The Vikings’ Champagne Problem that they Brought on Themselves
Turn back the clock to the beginning of September of 2024. On PurplePTSD, there’s a piece titled “The Sam Darnold Curveball Minnesota May Not be Ready to Hit.”
Critically, Minnesota is now stepping into the batter’s box.
Darnold played so well in 2024 that the Vikings’ champagne problem now involves uncertainty about how things will proceed at quarterback (the current outlook points toward Darnold in Seattle). The safest guess likely remains a combination of J.J. McCarthy and Daniel Jones in 2025, but there’s no ironclad answer at this stage. Instead, we’re bringing things down to the last minute to figure out what Minnesota’s QB room will look like in 2025.
The Vikings’ Champagne Problem with Sam Darnold
The hope was to get a strong year out of Darnold; Darnold exceeded everyone’s expectations.
Consider how the issue was framed in the piece mentioned up top: “There’s a strange situation brewing, then, where Minnesota is moving into the season with a quarterback whom they believe can re-find his game. At 27, Darnold still has a lot of football left in him and could prove that he’s capable of living up to that No. 3 draft slot. Stranger things have happened, right?”
Further: “But then if he does thrive, where does that leave Minnesota in the ’25 offseason? A sophomore passer will be coming off a missed rookie season and a major recovery. Thankfully, he’ll still be very young, but largely unproven. Meanwhile, Darnold could realistically have 5-10 more years of strong play. Would excellent play from Darnold in 2024 be a curveball that the Vikings aren’t ready to hit?”
Those questions were asked on September 1, 2024.
A day before free agency — March 9, 2025 — we’re asking a lot of the same questions.
The positive side of things is Darnold’s age, size, and athleticism. Oh, and a season where he went 14-3 behind 66.2% passing for 4,319 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions.
The negative side of things is that he crumbled in the final two weeks. He didn’t play well in Week 18 and was a disaster in the Wild Card Round. Put simply, the Vikings need more from their QB1 when they get their next chance to do something special in the playoffs.
Oh, and there’s another reality working against Darnold: that value deal of $10 million in 2024 isn’t happening again. The man is going to secure a large raise (rightfully so).
Back to the article from September. A key question: “Most expect Darnold to just be OK, but what happens if he is excellent?”
Part of the answer: “His 59.7% career completion rate is an eyesore, a number that would need to start flirting with 65% to justify an ongoing status as the top quarterback. And then the passing yards would need to get to around 4,000 while the touchdown passes march into the mid-20s (at least). In that scenario, the Vikings would have a low-end QB1 who is still young enough to play another five-to-ten years in the NFL.”
Darnold, we should note, exceeded these optimistic projections.
And then there’s the problem that would arise if Darnold shined: “In the end, some unexpected success from Sam Darnold may get described as a ‘champagne problem’ by GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. Yes, there’s an issue to solve, but it’s not all negative. Seeing a QB thrive is undoubtedly a good outcome even if there are tricky ramifications.”
Needing to choose from an array of in-house options at quarterback isn’t a bad problem. Quite the opposite is true. Minnesota has young passers who all demonstrate a certain degree of promise and uncertainty, upside and risk. The situation is, in short, a champagne problem.
Look for Darnold, Adofo-Mensah, and the rest of the main people around the Vikings to offer more clarity early in the week. Legal tampering begins tomorrow.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference and Over the Cap helped with this piece.
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K. Joudry is the Senior Editor for Vikings Territory and PurplePTSD. He has been covering the Vikings full time since the summer of 2021. He can be found on social media (Bluesky & Twitter). If you feel so inclined, subscribe to his Substack, The Vikings Gazette, for more great Vikings content.