MIN at DET: The Week 18 Tilt to Secure the NFC’s Top Seed
MIN at DET: Week 18
Minnesota is a 14-2 football team with a +122 point differential. Detroit is a 14-2 football team with a +200 point differential. Any chance we’re moving toward a heavyweight fight?
One could very persuasively argue that Kevin O’Connell and Dan Campbell have been the NFL’s two most impressive head coaches in 2024. O’Connell has pushed his team well beyond everyone’s expectations, even the most optimistic. Campbell, meanwhile, has fulfilled expectations, doing so while navigating a huge amount of injury turmoil. Which coach gets the top spot in the conference at the end of Week 18?
MIN at DET: The SNF Game for the NFC
Detroit’s infirmary is filling up.
Scroll down on the Lions’ roster page and check out what’s taking place on the IR. A lot of the players who are nursing injuries are excellent football players. Edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, corner Carlton Davis, linebacker Alex Anzalone, defensive tackle Alim McNeill, receiver Kalif Raymond, and several others. The Lions deserve a pile of credit for overcoming these personnel losses on their way up to a 14-2 record.
General manager Brad Holmes has done a magnificent job of building his roster, assembling a deep collection of talent that fits perfectly with what Dan Campbell is looking to accomplish. The elite work from the GM and HC are perhaps the main reasons why the Lions are among the NFL’s very best teams.
Offensively, there’s no one better than Campbell’s Lions. Detroit is 1st in the league by averaging 33.3 points per game, a huge number that underscores the brilliance of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson.
Defensively, the unit is very strong, coming in at 9th by allowing an average of 20.8 points against per game. Keep in mind, though, that these past several weeks have featured the Lions allowing quite a few points. The past four games have involved allowing 31 points in Week 14, 48 points in Week 15, 17 points in Week 16, and 34 points in Week 17. There’s very little chance that Minnesota earns a victory without pushing their point total into the 30s (at minimum).
Jared Goff is playing good football — 71.7%, 4,398 yards, 36 touchdowns, 10 interceptions — but Brian Flores seems likely to begin by focusing on the run. Jahmyr Gibbs is an exceptional talent, turning his 227 carries into 1,273 yards and 13 touchdowns. Even worse for Flores, Gibbs has 47 receptions for 486 yards and 3 scores.
Minnesota’s task is going to involve minimizing the damage Gibbs can do on early downs, forcing Detroit into 3rd and long situations. The Lions are converting an impressive 47.9% of their 3rd downs, but that’s going to be difficult to maintain if Goff is facing 3rd & 7 (or more) with regularity.
The best way for Kevin O’Connell to help is to orchestrate an offensive game plan that not only puts up a pile of points but also drains the clock. Possess the ball so that Johnson, Goff, Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and the rest of the crew in Detroit can’t do damage. That’s the mandate.
Truth be told, I have very little confidence in Minnesota securing the win, but I got burned last week by picking against them (read the offseason prediction). Give me the Vikings to pull off the magical end to a magical season.
Official Prediction: Vikings 30 – Lions 26
Prediction Record: 12-4
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference helped with this piece.
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K. Joudry is the Senior Editor for Vikings Territory and PurplePTSD. He has been covering the Vikings full time since the summer of 2021. He can be found on Twitter, as a co-host for Notes from the North, and as the proprietor at The Vikings Gazette, a humble Vikings Substack.