After Demotion, 1 Vikings Playmaker Now Sees Grim to Slim Odds of Stat Explosion
Jalen Nailor, a Vikings playmaker going into his fourth season, is the crown jewel of Minnesota’s stunningly awful 2022 draft class.
The 6th-Round receiver has proven to be a solid NFL football player. Does he have the capacity to be more than just solid? Could he become a reasonably proficient WR2 for an NFL offense? If so, then his journey toward proving as much has become more difficult in recent days.
Vikings Playmaker Battling for Targets, Touches, & TDs
Start off with a basic reality: the greatest issue working against Jalen Nailor is health, or a lack thereof.
The receiver has talent. He evidently has a work ethic, as well. He’s noticeably larger, more muscular as he works within his contract season. Presumably, Nailor is looking to explode in 2025, doing so ahead of what could become a strong payday on the open market in March of 2026.
However, Nailor has been demoted, a reality that flows from the injury concern.
With Jordan Addison’s suspension, Jalen Nailor was going to be the WR2 for the opening several weeks of the season. He then sustained a hand injury, leading to Kevin O’Connell’s proclamation that Nailor is operating on a week-to-week basis. The end result of that uncertainty was the trade for Adam Thielen.
Even in a down season, Thielen offered better production than Nailor.
In 2024, Thielen put up 48 catches for 615 yards and 5 touchdowns. He did so from within a Carolina context where the quarterback situation was far from ideal. Oh, and the recently acquired receiver did his damage in just ten games.
Meanwhile, Nailor was pushing his career to new heights as a Viking. He did so with 28 catches for 414 yards and 6 touchdowns. The key caveat is that Nailor was out there for all seventeen games while operating within a Kevin O’Connell offense that creates air yards faster than McDonald’s slings fries.
Working in the younger receiver’s favor is that he was more explosive, averaging 14.8 yards per reception whereas Thielen was coming in at 12.8 yards per reception. So, if O’Connell is looking to take the top off the defense, Nailor would appear to be the better bet. Plus, a greater proportion of Nailor’s catches went for a first down, if that matters. Thielen had 28 1st Downs within his 48 receptions; Nailor had 22 1st Downs within his 28 receptions.
Nevertheless, there’s a pretty clear-cut reality taking place in Minnesota: adding Adam Thielen means demoting Jalen Nailor.
The Vikings don’t send over pick compensation and see precious cap space drift away (even with an adjusted contract) to see Thielen play a tiny role. Rather, Thielen is going to be out there more often than not when the team requires two receivers.
Once Jordan Addison comes back, Nailor is going to slide down the depth chart even further. He’ll be the WR4, a tough spot to be when one is looking to prove capable of being a legit weapon for an NFL offense.
Finally, consider that Minnesota’s pass catchers extend beyond just the talented receivers. Aaron Jones is a threat coming out of the backfield. He could very reasonably flirt with 50 catches a year after seeing 62 targets turn into 51 catches. And then there’s T.J. Hockenson, one of the game’s best tight ends who is now fully healthy and likely to demand a strong workload.
To be sure, an uphill climb for Jalen Nailor.
He needs to get his body right. Getting onto the field for Week 1 is a good step, but he’ll be (at best) the fourth option in the passing game as he operates behind all of Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and T.J. Hockenson (possibly Aaron Jones, too, at least in terms of targets). From Week 4 onward, Nailor will slide down even more since Jordan Addison is going to demand targets and touches.
Listed at 5’11” and 190 pounds, Nailor boasts the nickname “Speedy.” He’ll need to live up to that moniker in 2025 as he makes the most of what could be limited touches.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference helped with this piece.
