Vikings Division Takeaways from the First Three Weeks
Momentum is one of those oft-discussed aspects of professional sports that, quite possibly, does not even exist.
It is always tempting to see a team playing well for a drive, a quarter, a couple of games, or even an entire season and assume that this success is going to continue. Similarly, it’s tempting to see a team that has an off-year and assume that they’re heading downward toward a rebuild.
Coming into 2024, many NFL pundits, odds-makers, and fans assumed that the Vikings fell into this latter category. The team’s decline from 13 wins in 2022 to seven in 2023, combined with the loss of QB Kirk Cousins and EDGE Danielle Hunter, convinced many that the Vikings were on their way down. Instead, the Vikings are 3-0 with a point differential of +55, which is good for third-best in the NFL. Two of their wins have come against teams that are widely considered to be Super Bowl contenders.
Conversely, many assumed that the Chicago Bears were a team on the rise after they increased their win total from 3 in 2022 to 7 in 2023 and added RB D’Andre Swift, WR Keenan Allen, and number one overall pick QB Caleb Williams. Instead, the Bears have dropped two of their first three games, their lone win coming against a hapless Titans team.
Similarly, the Detroit Lions have seen a hint of regression to their 2022 form after an incredible 2023 season in which they were just a bad bounce away from a trip to the Super Bowl. The Lions are 2-1 with a point differential of +9.
The season is still young, but the Vikings’ early success and the Bears’ and Lions’ regressions are examples of a more general trend: teams that improve from one season to the next are actually slightly more likely to regress the following season, while teams that decline from one season to the next are more likely to right the ship the following season. In other words, momentum does not seem to exist—at least not at a season-to-season level.
Another important lesson from the Bears’ struggles and the Vikings’ success is the difficulty of disentangling QB performance from team performance. Perhaps highly touted rookie QB Caleb Williams would have found success already with a different team, but he has struggled mighty behind the Bears’ offensive line, which has already allowed 13 sacks in just three games.
Meanwhile, after unsuccessful stints as the starting QB for the Jets and Panthers, Sam Darnold has blossomed in his first three games with the Vikings, a beneficiary of a well-coached offense with arguably the best wide receiver in football and a rejuvenated run game. Darnold leads the NFL with eight passing touchdowns and ranks in the top 10 in passer rating, QBR, EPA/play, and completion percentage. The Vikings are averaging 125 rush yards per game compared with 91.4 last season.
When it comes to the upcoming rivalry game against the Green Bay Packers, there is both good news and bad news for Vikings fans. The good news is that the Packers have likely been a bit overhyped heading into 2024, coming off a season in which they appeared to take a step forward behind Jordan Love’s emergence as the next great Packers quarterback. Love showed signs of regression in his lone start in 2024 before being sidelined with an injury, and the Packers’ Super Bowl odds have slightly decreased since the season began.
The bad news, though, is that the Packers offense has been potent even with backup quarterback Malik Willis under center. Jayden Reed has emerged as a legitimate WR1 option, and the team as a whole is averaging an impressive 5.5 yards per rushing attempt. Even with Jordan Love’s status in question for Sunday’s game, the Packers are home favorites in their upcoming tilt with the Vikings.
Furthermore, although it may seem that the Vikings have momentum on their side after three straight wins, things can change in a hurry in the NFL. There is no question that the Vikings have been one of the best teams in the NFL so far, but as the team learned in 2016, early-season success doesn’t always last.
If the Vikings want to prove that they are serious Super Bowl contenders, Lambeau Field is a great place to send a message.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference helped with this article.
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