Matchups to Watch in Week 4: Jefferson-Alexander Battle and Aaron Jones’s Return
I consider myself a very optimistic fan. My co-host on our Brazilian Minnesota Vikings podcast even calls me “the most optimistic Vikings fan in the world.” If you follow our weekly score predictions on Vikings Territory, you know that I always think the purple and gold will come out on top.
Part of this is because I don’t like betting against the team I root for. But the biggest reason is that, in the end, I believe this team can always beat anybody. Heck, I even thought that when the team had Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall under center.
The reason I’m mentioning this is because I couldn’t even have predicted this. Of course, I predicted the Vikings would be 3-0. But my guesses were all close games. Not even in my wildest dreams did I think that this squad would dominate the 49ers and the Texans. But let’s keep’em going, though.
Last week, I focused on the matchup between second-year C.J. Stroud and this “crazy” Vikings’ defense. The defense played in a dominating fashion, holding one of the best offenses in the league to 7 points and forcing Stroud into his second-ever multi-interception game and his first pick since last November.
They are the third team to have 5+ sacks in each of their first three games since 1990 (2000 Buccanneers, 2001 Saints) and lead the league in hurries (20), sacks (16.0), and pressures (49) while being second in pressure percentage (33.8%) and third in takeaways (6).
But this week the highlight will be on offense. I could talk at length about Flores vs LaFleur or other defensive matchups, but this week, two storylines will deeply impact the outcome of the game. As always, here are a couple of other important matchups.
Vikings’ Run Defense vs. Packers’ Run Game
The Packers lead the league in rushing yards with 612 yards in three games. But they also ran the ball more than everybody in the NFL (111). They are second in yards per carry with 5.5 but are 24th in rushing success and have scored just twice on the ground. The Ravens and Eagles, second and third in rushing yards (respectively), have had five rushing touchdowns each.
Meanwhile, the Vikings have one of the best defenses defending the run. 2nd in yards allowed (214), 4th in yards per run (3.6), and tied-2nd in TDs allowed (1). LaFleur has a crazy scheme in his own right ‒ more on that in a second – and will try to get Josh Jacobs going early, regardless of who the QB is.
Brian Flores vs. Matt LaFleur
It is not because I’m not discussing this at length that I’m not going to discuss this at all. Not much was said last year about how O’Connell almost took this team to the playoffs despite a revolving door of QBs later in the season. The league may have learned their lesson, praising how Matt LaFleur has coached this team to a 2-0 record without Jordan Love.
With great game plans, a really creative run game design, and an understanding of what his QB can and can’t do, the Packers beat the Colts and Titans with Malik Willis as the signal-caller. Of course, Willis wasn’t asked to do much in the passing game.
Against the Colts, LaFleur ran the ball 53 times and passed only 14 times, but this played to the Colts’ weakness in stopping the run (200+ yards allowed in two games). Against the Titans, it was just a smidge more balanced, with 37 runs and 19 passes. LaFleur has a very creative playbook and isn’t afraid to give the ball to all of his players, with seven players having multiple carries this season.
But Flores is very creative in his own right. The madman defensive scientist coaches the most surprising unit in the NFL, and his looks are impossible to decipher. If his unit can stop the run without sacrificing all of the disguises he likes to do, whoever the Packers play at QB will have a tough day.
The Best Receiver In The World Has A Great Surrounding Cast
It has been a minute since we’ve seen Jefferson and Alexander face each other. The Vikings’ superstar was injured when the teams played in Lambeau, and Alexander was suspended by the team for their Week 17 game. This means that the last time both were on the field at the same time was when the Packers beat the Vikings 41-17 in a Week 17 matchup in Lambeau Field.
Alexander had a very good game in their last match against each other, limiting JJ to only one reception for 15 yards. But now the Packers won’t be able to double or triple-team Jefferson all game long. Without Jefferson last year, the Vikings leaned heavily on Jordan Addison, and he delivered seven catches, 82 yards, and a TD. He was even going against Alexander when he scored. After missing the last two games with an ankle injury, Addison is good to go and should play in Green Bay.
In his absence, Jalen Nailor stepped up and played admirably. Nailor has three TDs in the season and is proving to be a very dynamic player with the ball in his hands. With Addison healthy again, the team is back at full strength in the WR room, and this is great news for QB Sam Darnold.
Justin Jefferson was asked about the Lambeau Field surface (he slipped a lot of times the last time he played there) and the rivalry with Jaire Alexander. He said he would be careful with his cleats in the game so he stays upright during the game and that he doesn’t care too much about the rivalry.
Aaron Jones Returns to Green Bay
It’ll be an emotional return for the new Vikings’ running back. He recently sent a letter to the Packers via The Players’ Tribune, and stuff like this shows why football is more than just a game. But showing appreciation for what the Packers’ front office did for him doesn’t mean he won’t give his all in the game ‒ the Vikings need him.
Jones brought a dynamism that was lacking in the running game under Kevin O’Connell. Jones has over 200 yards running and nearing 100 yards through the air already and scored twice in the season. He is 4th in rushing success, averaging 5.4 yards per carry and 4.02 yards after contact. His leadership in the locker room is also a great addition to this team, and you can easily see that he’s loving being in Minnesota.
The Packers’ defense is an aggressive and opportunistic one, but their run D is giving up 4.7 yards per carry and gave 100+ yards to Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor. Jones’s work on the ground has helped Sam Darnold a lot. Having a running back that averages a first down every two carries helps take pressure off the QB, and Jones has been such a threat running the football that O’Connell has been able to control the clock better at the end of games, and the play-action game is working beautifully.
Another aspect of Jones’s running so well with the ball is that it forces defenses to load the box, meaning they can’t play with two-high safeties. No two-high safeties mean that it’s way harder to double Justin Jefferson in coverage. And if JJ only has one player on him, he’s open.
In an interview this week, Jones was asked about this matchup and if he’d jump in the stands if he scored. Let’s just say that when he scores, he’ll look for purple.
The statistics mentioned can be found on PFF and Pro Football Reference.
Final Prediction: Vikings 20, at Packers, 12
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