The Vikings’ Playoff Chances are Sky High, Per Prominent Model
Sitting at 9-2, the Vikings’ playoff odds are looking pretty good. Very good, in fact.
But, to be sure, there’s a lesson to be learned from Sunday’s too-close-for-comfort win: counting one’s purple chickens before they’ve hatched is foolish. What we have are strong odds but not ironclad certainty. What do we do with the word that’s coming from the model on The Athletic?
The Vikings’ Playoff Odds
Before the season began, the common wisdom was that Minnesota would be just an average team.
After all, Sam Darnold — a journeyman passer who thoroughly failed to live up to his No. 3 draft slot — was taking over for Kirk Cousins. Even worse, J.J. McCarthy was lost to injury before the season began, meaning Minnesota didn’t have a super inspiring option to turn to if things went south with Mr. Darnold.
Going into Week 13, the Vikings are sitting at 9-2, a record that even the most optimistic Vikings fans or writers couldn’t see coming.
Back on September 1st, Dustin Baker published a piece on Vikings Territory where he insisted Minnesota would finish the season with a 7-10 record. The day prior, Vikings Territory published a piece with the predictions coming from the broader crew of writers. At 10-7, I was the most optimistic of the bunch. Consider the rationale: “Actually quite optimistic, largely due to the defense and the addition of Aaron Jones. I’ve got Minnesota finishing off at 10-7 and snagging a wild card spot.”
Cole Smith suggested that 9-8 was coming up: “Everything that could go wrong did go wrong in 2023. With that in mind, Minnesota will have more bounces go their way. The defense will improve, and Sam Darnold can at least be competent.”
Every other writer felt that a losing season was upcoming. Going into Week 13, the Vikings have officially eliminated the possibility of a losing record; there’s no way their losses can now outnumber their wins.
The word from The Athletic is thus that Minnesota is sitting on a 98% chance of making the postseason. Not bad, right?
Four other teams are doing better than the Vikings: the Lions, Chiefs, Bills, and Eagles. All of these teams are sitting on odds that are beyond 99%. Next up at fifth overall is Minnesota.
The guess on The Athletic is that the Vikings will finish with a 12-5 record. Apparently, there’s a 14% chance of winning the division, an 8% chance of snagging a 1st-Round bye, and a 5% chance of winning the Super Bowl. All of those numbers are tremendously optimistic, especially when we consider the expectations coming into the year.
At the end of the day, there’s still plenty of uncertainty that’s ahead. The Vikings’ schedule gets tougher from here. In the final six games, there are three divisional games (one game per NFC North rival) alongside games against the Cardinals, Falcons, and Seahawks. So, Minnesota will need to be sharp.
The 9-2 Vikings should be feeling good, though, even if some of the wins have been wobbly. Kevin O’Connell’s team is 5th in the NFC.
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K. Joudry is the Senior Editor for Vikings Territory and PurplePTSD. He has been covering the Vikings full time since the summer of 2021. He can be found on Twitter, as a co-host for Notes from the North, and as the proprietor at The Vikings Gazette, a humble Vikings Substack.