What if Sam Darnold Succeeds?
Admittedly, I have some skepticism.
The 3rd overall selection from the 2018 NFL Draft has had a difficult start to his career. Sam Darnold was working with less than ideal situations in New York and Carolina, so there is a limit to how far we can push the criticism. Is there really much reason to believe he’ll bounce back, though?
Maybe the best recent comparables are Geno Smith with the Seahawks and Baker Mayfield with the Buccaneers (the more common comparison). In 2022, Smith turned in his best season as a pro, eventually leading to a 3-year, $75 million commitment from Seattle. In 2023, Baker Mayfield got his career back on track, leading to a 3-year, $100 million commitment from Tampa Bay.
Is that even an option for Darnold in Minnesota?
Turning Sam Darnold into a Success Would be a Double-Edged Sword for Vikings
By sinking No. 10 in the 21-year-old J.J. McCarthy, the Vikings signalled that their full intention is to hand off the offense to the new QB before too long.
At Michigan, McCarthy did plenty of good things. True, he wasn’t setting any records for most passing attempts, but he led the program to a pile of wins while showing off some strong accuracy, athleticism, and leadership. Minnesota was impressed, leading to a modest hop up the board to get him to Eagan.
As so many have pointed out, the Vikings are offering an ideal setup for a young passer.
Kevin O’Connell is a sharp guy. The skill is abundant and the offensive line features Christian Darrisaw to stand alongside Brian O’Neill. Tossing in some better defense — and thus having better field position and a shot at winning the time of possession battle — will help whoever is under center.
Is there a possibility that the quarterback who finds that success isn’t McCarthy? If Sam Darnold shines in September while leading his team to wins aplenty, does the rookie even see the field in 2024?
Even more uncertain would be the best way to proceed in 2025.
Handing things over to a sophomore passer who has grown stronger, mastered the scheme, and adjusted to life in the NFL makes a lot of sense. The financial savings alone — Darnold is bringing in $10 million, but a good season would push the compensation far higher — is good reason to seriously consider moving on from the veteran.
A strong year, however, would make it hard to move on from Darnold. Sam Darnold, who stands at 6’3” and weighs 225 pounds, is the bridge QB in Minnesota. He’ll turn 27 in June, an age that suggests he’s seen some things while nevertheless having quite a bit of youth in tow.
His 59.7% career completion rate is an eyesore, a number that would need to start flirting with 65% to justify an ongoing status as the top quarterback. And then the passing yards would need to get to around 4,000 while the touchdown passes march into the mid-20s (at least). In that scenario, the Vikings would have a low-end QB1 who is still young enough to play another five-to-ten years in the NFL.
In that outcome, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah would have a difficult decision to make, especially if there is a playoff win or two.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference and Over the Cap helped with this piece.
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K. Joudry is the Senior Editor for Vikings Territory and PurplePTSD. He has been covering the Vikings full time since the summer of 2021. He can be found on Twitter and as a co-host for Notes from the North, a humble Vikings podcast.