The Sam Darnold Curveball Minnesota May Not be Ready to Hit
What happens if Sam Darnold plays wonderfully? Not just solid, but at a legit Pro Bowl level. Could he actually be kept around beyond 2024?
The plan is to hand things off to J.J. McCarthy before too long. After all, the former Michigan man was scooped up at No. 10 in the draft for a reason: Minnesota has full belief in his capacity to be a franchise QB for the next decade (or more). Even the decision they made with his knee surgery — opting for the full repair and long-term recovery — speaks to prioritizing the future with McCarthy.
There’s a strange situation brewing, then, where Minnesota is moving into the season with a quarterback whom they believe can re-find his game. At 27, Darnold still has a lot of football left in him and could prove that he’s capable of living up to that No. 3 draft slot. Stranger things have happened, right?
But then if he does thrive, where does that leave Minnesota in the ’25 offseason? A sophomore passer will be coming off a missed rookie season and a major recovery. Thankfully, he’ll still be very young, but largely unproven. Meanwhile, Darnold could realistically have 5-10 more years of strong play. Would excellent play from Darnold in 2024 be a curveball that the Vikings aren’t ready to hit?
What if Sam Darnold Succeeds?
Admittedly, I have some skepticism.
The 3rd overall selection from the 2018 NFL Draft has had a difficult start to his career. Sam Darnold was working with less than ideal situations in New York and Carolina, so there is a limit to how far we can push the criticism. Is there really much reason to believe he’ll bounce back, though?
Recently, The Athletic published a piece ranking the NFL’s QBs, placing them into separate tiers. Mr. Darnold found himself at 29th overall, a spot behind Bryce Young and his disastrous rookie season. Not exactly a strong endorsement from the league’s anonymous coaches and executives.
There’s a belief that working in Eagan will be beneficial for Darnold: “All would agree that the infrastructure in Minnesota is better for Darnold than the situations with the Jets and Panthers were for him.” Plus, the time with Kyle Shanahan likely served him well: “One season with Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco gave Darnold a slight boost with some voters. He commanded 12 votes in Tier 3, twice as many as in 2022, his most recent Tiers appearance.”
Getting placed below Young, Will Levis, Gardner Minshew, and Daniel Jones isn’t exactly a glowing endorsement. Around the league, there isn’t a strong willingness to fully buy into a bounce back year even if we all see it’s possible. So, the voters plop him down into the depths of Tier 4.
Most expect Darnold to just be OK, but what happens if he is excellent?
A strong year would make it hard to move on. Sam Darnold, who stands at 6’3” and weighs 225 pounds, is the bridge QB in Minnesota. He’s 27, an age that suggests he’s seen some things while nevertheless having quite a bit of youth in tow.
His 59.7% career completion rate is an eyesore, a number that would need to start flirting with 65% to justify an ongoing status as the top quarterback. And then the passing yards would need to get to around 4,000 while the touchdown passes march into the mid-20s (at least). In that scenario, the Vikings would have a low-end QB1 who is still young enough to play another five-to-ten years in the NFL.
In the end, some unexpected success from Sam Darnold may get described as a “champagne problem” by GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. Yes, there’s an issue to solve, but it’s not all negative. Seeing a QB thrive is undoubtedly a good outcome even if there are tricky ramifications.
Signed for a single season at $10 million, Darnold would command far more if he has even a low-end QB1 season. Maybe the benefit would simply be an added compensatory selection, but seeing a strong quarterback depart would sting.
Darnold’s greatest task will involve improving on his career 21-35 win/loss record. He can do so by improving on his lacklustre accuracy and by ensuring the Vikings’ abundant skill is well fed during games.
He’ll get his first chance to show off that kind of improvement on Sunday, September 8th when the New York Giants host the Minnesota Vikings. Kickoff is scheduled for 12 p.m. CT.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference and Over the Cap helped with this piece.
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K. Joudry is the Senior Editor for Vikings Territory and PurplePTSD. He has been covering the Vikings full time since the summer of 2021. He can be found on Twitter and as a co-host for Notes from the North, a humble Vikings podcast.