Sam Darnold, Kirk Cousins, and The Bet that’s Paying Off
Safe to say that things are looking pretty good in Minnesota, all things considered. Atop an 8-2 record, the Vikings are fully in control of their own playoff destiny. True, they need the Lions to falter to claim the North, but the NFC playoffs are looking very likely at this stage.
Not too long ago, the switch from Kirk Cousins to Sam Darnold made team success seem anything but certain. Cousins can play some high-level football and he appeared to be an excellent fit for Kevin O’Connell’s offense given the QB’s high-level brain and accuracy. Darnold, though, has proven to be no slouch. As the season hits its stretch run, the Vikings’ bet appears to be paying off.
Sam Darnold, Kirk Cousins, & The 2024 Season
Start off with the dollars and cents. After all, that’s often the most basic information when it comes to whether a player comes back.
Atlanta lured Mr. Cousins down to Georgia with a monstrous deal that’s tipping the scales at $180 million across four seasons. The Falcons could wiggle out of that deal prior to its conclusion given the presence of Michael Penix Jr., the No. 8 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, but Cousins is the QB1 for at least this season and the next.
Meanwhile, Darnold found his way to Minnesota for just a single-season commitment that’s sitting at $10 million. Part of the appeal of the cheaper deal is that Minnesota has been forced into digesting $28.5 million in dead money from Cousins’ contract in the present-day budget, so the low-level compensation for Darnold helps to offset that number.
At present, the Falcons are atop the NFC South — one of the weakest divisions in football — with an average 6-5 record. The Vikings are second in the NFC North — arguably the top division in football — with an 8-2 record.
How do things look when we place the QBs side-by-side? Check it out:
| Player | Comp. % | Yards | TDs | INTs |
| Cousins, Kirk | 68.1% | 2,807 | 17 | 9 |
| Darnold, Sam | 67.9% | 2,387 | 19 | 10 |
Pretty close to even par, right?
Bring things over to other metrics. For passer rating, Kirk Cousins finds himself at 96.6; Sam Darnold is sitting at 100.0. Cousins has been sacked 23 times; Darnold has been sacked 28 times. Cousins has run 19 times for -3 yards and a first down; Darnold has run 46 times for 166 yards, a touchdown, and 19 first downs.
The wild thing is that many of the numbers (rushing stats aside) look close to identical. What really stands out is that the Vikings have proven to be more successful as a team. Of course, that goes beyond just a single player — even one as consequential as the quarterback — but I am a proponent of wins being a QB stat, so there’s something to be said for the 8-2 versus 6-5 reality.
Furthermore, there’s the aforementioned financial component to consider. The Vikings are burning off dead money for Cousins and paying just $10 million to Darnold (in fairness, $5 million of that has been pushed into dead money for 2025 unless there’s an extension). The Falcons, in contrast, are on the hook for huge money for a QB1 who may secure the division title (in fairness, a weak one) and who is an enigma for how he’ll perform in the playoffs.
Much remains to be determined. To be sure, the Vikings could still fumble the ball down the stretch, slipping down the standings to either limp into the playoff before a swift exit or outright missing the final tournament. Nevertheless, the point remains: the Vikings are rolling with a $10 million journeyman passer who was left for dead as a draft bust. Darnold has pushed his team up to a tidy 8-2 record.
If the playoffs started tomorrow, the Falcons would host the Vikings. In Week 14, the teams will do battle inside U.S. Bank Stadium.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference and Over the Cap helped with this piece.
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K. Joudry is the Senior Editor for Vikings Territory and PurplePTSD. He has been covering the Vikings full time since the summer of 2021. He can be found on Twitter, as a co-host for Notes from the North, and as the proprietor at The Vikings Gazette, a humble Vikings Substack.